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May 3, 2006
I'm selling what Cramer's buying, Tuesday, May 2, 2006, 1:11 AM
If I ever saw a shorting opportunity, it had to be Crystallex International Corp (AMEX: KRY). The stock has doubled in the three weeks since CNBC personality James Cramer touted it on his Mad Money show, and at mid-day yesterday, with the stock at $5.80, the RSI was about 95.
Crystallex has been a dog of a mineral resource play in Venezuela since when I joined the securities business about 25 years ago. The property may be a good one but how much and how long can one pay off families in Venezuela all claiming title.
But that's another story.
Every few years, the promoters take this jalopy out of the garage and let it go for a run. Pick up a few dollars from Mom & Pop " the ones suffering credulity syndrome " and then head off to the Mediterranean or Caribbean on extended vacation. Several years later, quite often actually, they repeat the exercise.
Nobody seems to learn.
So while working one evening with monitors playing in the background " I must admit, I cannot get too far away from markets " there was a comment I overheard from Cramer saying he thought KRY was the best gold play on the board. Hmmm.
I thought, that's strange. What century do they plan to actually go into serious production? They have been having legal fights in Venezuela over this one since Chavez was in secondary school.
So I looked at the chart: A 52-week low of $1.01 " that's quite an improvement I thought to myself. Then, what's this? $4.00? Somebody's joking right?
Then I come back to it yesterday when I see trouble in Bolivia with Chavez's friend Morales up to the same nationalization tactics, and immediately (at $5.80) I thought about what Cramer was up to.

I can give anybody the names of maybe 30 gold and silver stocks superior to KRY, so why is Cramer touting this one? Crystallex is actually more a dog than a pony.
Think about it. One point two BILLION dollars in market cap and two million dollars total revenue per month. Do you know their big mine produced 137,395 oz over 3 years (35,244, 48,973, and 53,178). And their next so-called big mine produced all of 90,611 oz of gold over three years (24,360, 35,961 and 30,290 oz). And the little one is stuck at 9,467 oz over 3 years (5,564, 2,412 and 1,491 oz), mostly from waste, which is yielding less each year.
So, if KRY at US$1.2 billion in market cap is stuck with $100 million in debt and production of less than 85,000 oz of gold/year, I have to look further.
I see these people have more subco's in Aruba, BVI, Bermuda, etc, than mines. And the two "big" mining properties they own are in Venezuela, the place where even Cramer says Chavez is an idiot, and where other people are making claim on their assets. So, I didn't catch the Mad One's reasoning that this one (KRY) was his number one gold producer pick.
And I don't know the reasoning for all these tax haven subco's when "Venezuela currently has exchange controls that affect the ability of companies doing business in Venezuela to convert Venezuelan source income into foreign currency. There can be no assurance that exchange controls will not continue and, if they do, that they will not adversely affect the Corporation's operations, including its ability to satisfy its foreign currency obligations."
Yes, I'm going through SEC EDGAR filings and see more red flags than on NASCAR race day. But I see Borden Rosiak is CFO. I once worked with Borden I think in 1970. My, how time flies.
Borden must have some job, what with $96.9 million in long-term debt (Dec 2005) and $25.4 million in cash ($4.1 million of which is unrestricted), and $24 million in current liabilities. And that's some P&L, what with $45 million net loss for 2005 ($167 million over 3 years) and just $25 million top line annual revenue.
But then, Borden does have a stable of directors who are with financial companies in Toronto (ones I have never heard of, btw).
Anyway, Cramer likes it, but I say, before you invest, read the risks disclosed in SEC filings " if you have that much time.
Definitely never going to be on my buy list.
I'm going to add a p.s. here from a Knowing Fly on the Bay Street Wall who obviously agrees with my position. But before I do, I want to ask readers if there is a single Canadian broker-dealer (presumably expert because Canadians know gold -- Toronto is the mining finance capital of the world) that recommends Crystallex as a BUY. If so, please send me the report. Now here's the reader comment:
"Bill, It is curious that Kramer continually touts KRY. A few years back you may remember Thom Calandra at CBS marketwatch. He was shitcanned for front running, undisclosed positions etc etc.... and the SEC gave him a shake also. KRY was one of his continual picks. I have to think they have Kramer papered on this thing...no one of sound mind could recommend it."
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 3, 2006 01:10:59 AM | Category: Goldminer Producers
