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May 4, 2006
I'm dancing til the music stops, Thurs., May 4, 2006, 12:57 PM
Please have no fear that I'm going to stop blogging. I'm going to blog til the music stops.
Do you recall an article I did at 3:39am on March 9? I said: "Alert: Gold will rally today, Thurs., Mar. 9, 2006, 3:39 AM"
I was writing from Hotel Victoria, my favorite boutique hotel in the Toronto financial district, where I had taken a room for the week because I knew from experience I was going to need it. You see I was attending PDAC 2006 at the nearby Convention Centre and Royal York Hotel.
So, I wandered home, full to the gills of 25-year old rum, having enjoyed the company and hospitality of friends who happen to be the Hall of Fame of Canadian Mining, and I couldn't sleep.
You see, it was the last day of PDAC, and the miners were down. Gold prices had crapped out that week.
So, knowing I had to return to the Royal York for a meeting with Mr Platinum and Mr Peru, I just had to stay awake watching the overnight action on Bloomberg TV where I saw the Japanese market take a pop, and spot gold look a little stronger.
So I thought to myself, you know that idiot Dino Kos, under instructions from Bernanke, has just rained on the parade of 14,500 miners and friends in Toronto, so it was appropriate I send some liquids back in his direction.
Ergo the headline article at 3:39am: "Alert: Gold will rally today"
So here's the rest of the story:
Closing prices on March 8: GLD 53.97 and ABX 26.47Prices in the past few minutes: GLD 67.00 and ABX 33.00
Gain from March 8 through May 4: GLD +24.1 pct and ABX +24.7 pct
Now, read my words (copied below) from well after midnight March 9 (albeit a little tipsy); you'll see that doing this blog is a blast.
I can't leave my Little People. Never.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 4, 2006 12:57:08 PM | Category: Gold
Discourse
Sanjay, yes Typekey gives you access to making comments here, but it is an independent service.
Market breadth is one of the sentiment indicators, which in turn is part of technical analysis. Yes, I look at it among several other technical tools, as well as corporate fundamentals, quantitative measures and macro-economics. Then I make up my mind.
Sentiment or market psychology (also called behavioral finance) is what I wrote about earlier.
With respect to my perspective regarding a short-term reversal in certain markets -- like gold and $USD -- based on market psychology, there has to be a gun go off to frighten the herd into changing course.
As we get close to cyclic reversals, I simply look to TV and the data points that are commonly used. The U.S. Jobs Report is a big one, and has been for quite a while.
But then, it takes the public a while to learn the data point and feel they can interpret it. That's all part of the sting.
Beneath the surface there is a reason for these constant cycles you see in markets: the sell-side needs you to trade more, and the buy-side wants unsophisticated traders to trade more.
And that's the reason they have Talking Heads do their schtick. It's all vaudeville, and that's why I often call these people clowns.
Every cycle there is a different data point used. It used to be M3, a few years ago. But the Administration got sensitive to that one, so it was changed to the Jobs Report.
Who knows, some day it could become the Big Mac International Price Index. There is always some credible aspect to the data point, but the game is all in the spin.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 4, 2006 3:35 PM [link]

Bill,
After lurking on your blog for a while I finally broke down and registered on typekey.com.
After reading for a few months I've come to trust your signals on gold.
Have you noticed that the number of stocks trading over the 50 DMA & 200 DMA in the NYSE has been steadily detoriating over the last the few months?
I've been reading that this sort of depreciation in market breadth predates crashes.
Is this why you're predicting a decline after the Friday job number?
-Sanjay
Posted by: Sanjay
at
May 4, 2006 2:19 PM [link]