« Some perspective on Canadian Income Trusts, Thurs., May 4, 2006, 3:58 PM | Main | Reader takes exception to Cara, who responds, Thurs., May 4, 2006, 5:30 PM »

May 4, 2006

Gold market is being set up for a fall, Thurs., May 4, 2006, 4:40 PM

I don't like what I see with this gold market unfortunately. I think we are in for a significant pull-back. Here's my thinking.

First the RSI values are out of sight.

Second, the miners are being sold off at a time when the bullion is rocketing north.

Third, CNBC's Cramer is into touting crap in this market (Crystallex) as well as helping the big guys distribute their legit paper (Goldcorp). And today he's pushing Northgate (NGX). NGX was $2.00 when I was at PDAC just 8 weeks ago, and I told you I liked it. Today, it's $4.50. Sayonara. I smell something rotten in a certain TV studio.

Fourth, Peter Munk is coming on TV tomorrow morning. Peter Munk never comes on TV unless it is absolutely necessary. Trust me, it's necessary.

Fifth, this "Gold De-hedging" story is all over town. I think it's in every barbershop.

Sixth, the public has been wound to the point of breaking down emotionally over the crapping out $USD. It's bad, but not THAT bad, folks.



So, g034 wrote a comment late in the day. For the record, g034 is a pro trader of many years experience. We have never met, but have talked on the phone about my Bahamas plans. I trust his judgment.

Here's what he had to say:

"Bill, I read one article on the dehedging story that made it sound like the dehedgers did a great job getting out of their shorts because they "anticipated" a price rise. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't think they did a great job anticipating the bull market in the commodity that they mine. If they had, wouldn't they have been more aggressive a few years ago, rather than having to exit so many of their shorts in the $600's with 1/2 still on the books?

I'll take a CEO that refused to sell short over a hedging CEO. CEO's that sold short to secure financing may be sweating bullets right about now."



There is always a danger in my getting readers too close to the action, like I did with Stelco. But here goes, and believe me when I say I like Peter Munk.

The Barrick news on de-hedging from Mitsui & Company Precious Metals adds to my suspicions that the gold market is being set up. The average person is led to presume that if there is such large de-hedging by one of the largest producers then Barrick must think the price is going much higher. Right?

What troubles me is what I know about Peter Munk. After Clairtone, he became very involved with Mitsui & Co. and they worked with him to not only develop the Tahiti real estate property I mentioned earlier, but also were partners with him in Canadian Motor Industries " the forerunner of Toyota Canada. He imported Izusu and Toyota vehicles in the late 60's and early 70's before selling out to Mitsui, who in return sold out to Toyota, then folded the Izusu importing.

The point is that Munk goes back a long way with Mitsui and I would be suspicious of any news coming from them regarding Barrick.

Trading is serious business. Always follow the connections where you can.

And have a long memory. Part of that memory is a reminder that Cramer was removed from CNBC once before when he was allegedly front-running stocks and using his CNBC work as the vehicle (according to his staff). I don't forget these things, and that's not to say that history has a way of repeating itself, but just to say I can be friends with former criminals if I take it upon myself to be extra cautious. But, I'm not CNBC, so I can't speak to their values.

I'd trust this de-hedging story only if it came from sources like one of the major banks like UBS or Citigroup. Maybe I'm being too cautious with Munk-Mitsui, but the connection is there, and the timing is impeccable.

I happen to think of myself as an expert timer. So, let's just say I know it when I see it.

Having said all this, Barrick Gold stays on the Cara 100; Peter Munk is a terrific person; and I respect everything he's done with Barrick.

But having said that about Barrick earlier, and passing along the De-hedging story, my gut won't let me leave you hanging. I won't be the take-out guy for anybody.

And speaking of ruling by gut, rather than brains, I had to break up laughing this morning when a reader sent me the video of the Colbert video of the White House Press Corps Dinner. Too funny for words.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 4, 2006 04:40:51 PM | Category: Gold

Discourse

Thanks for the heads-up! Exited my pm positions on the close today.

Really appreaciate what you're doing here!

Posted by: DaveB [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 4, 2006 8:07 PM [link]

Bill,

Your comments are prudent, but the question is; will geopolitics trump prudence and send gold higher without pause?

I'll stick with my rules based trading "system", taking gains when appropriate (I've wrote about many times) and buying back on weakness, but never selling out of my core position. If things escalate in Iran, Iraq, Bolivia, etc., pushing gold higher, I'll still have my core position for profits. Odds are gold will correct and I can buy shares back at lower prices. Either way is a win AND I stuck to my rules. Trading rules keep you in the game.

BTW, you beat me in responding to HooHa. Thanks, my comment was going to take some time.

Posted by: g034 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 4, 2006 10:07 PM [link]

Cramer was cleared of any front-running charges, so it's a little unfair to paint him with that brush here.

Posted by: BH [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 4, 2006 11:50 PM [link]

Bill,

Colbert...funny??? Love your site for market info...but Colbert....funny??? NOT

Posted by: tradinoncoffee [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 4, 2006 11:50 PM [link]

BH,

You are right to point out that Cramer was not the recipient of diciplinary action by the SEC.

BUT maybe you don't understand how the securities industry works. One of Cramer's own staff published these allegations in a book, following which Cramer was removed from the air by CNBC and, as I clearly recall, was held in contempt by the Squawk Box team for well over a year.

In doing due diligence on anybody in this industry, the mere fact you have faced alegations as serious as the one that faced Cramer is enough to cause many bankers to not deal with you again.

They may not say anything for publication, but they don't have to. Bankers look for red flags, not convictions, in determining who they are going to work with.

So I can understand why Cramer sued his former employee.

But all I am saying now is that this incident is not forgotten by people on the Street, and in cases like this people take extra precautions. So if I see a stock with a dubious record get promoted on his show, rightly or wrongly, I know the thoughts that are going through the minds of many people.

Traders don't have the time to get involved in controversy. They don't debate things like lawyers -- as in maybe he did, maybe he didn't. If something is real or perceived as a possible danger, they walk. That's all my point was intended to be.

Maybe that's not fair, but it is the way things operate in the market.

To tradinoncoffee,

Re Colbert, all I said was I found it funny. I gather a large percentage of the American people think he's funny. I like Jay Leno too, and he makes political jokes. Big deal. As somebody who has no vote in America, and who never even heard of Colbert until I saw the video, please don't make more of my comment than was intended. And as far as getting into politics, let me say I never intend to watch Michael Moore's film on 9/11 -- because I don't support proselytizers, blue or red. I'm as independent as they come.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 5, 2006 1:11 AM [link]

Interesting insight but the Barrick is not that significance and not that surprising either , This is an impulsive extensive wave up for gold watch the 1980's being taken soon.

Posted by: real1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 5, 2006 2:01 AM [link]