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May 29, 2006

Fly me (not to the moon), Mon., May 29, 2006, 7:25 AM

A great way to fly is via executive or very light jet (VLJ), which is a market that is literally taking off.

There are four major commercial jet airplane manufacturers outside Russia and China. They are Boeing (USA), EADS (Europe), Bombardier Aerospace (Canada) and Embraer (Brazil). But there are several VLJ manufacturers that are on the way to success, and there are air flight services like Million Air, etc, that are helping make that a commercial success.

So just like Sao Paulo Brazil is a literal beehive of helicopter traffic above the over-crowded city, the skies over North America and Europe are rapidly filling with small 4, 6 and 7-passenger micro jets.

Built from light but tough composite materials (nanotechnology?), and powered by the most fuel efficient tiny fanjet engines, like the Williams FJ33, these aircraft can fly higher (above the weather at 40,000 ft.), further (~1600 miles) and faster (>400 mph) than believed likely just 10 years ago.

And at a price of 1 to 3 million, the cost is no longer a factor to many people.

Of course, I'm not talking a $35 million so-called business jet that chauffeurs billionaires and Fortune 500 company managers around " just something suited for the merely rich who want to hop into their personal vehicle and be transported 350 miles away in an hour, without spending an hour getting to a commercial airport, another two hours pre-boarding, another hour flying, another hour or more deplaning and recovering luggage and maybe passing through jammed customs and immigration lines, and another hour getting into town from that commercial airport that may be stuck out in the boonies somewhere.

Time is valuable, so cutting four hours out of a six-hour travel day is immensely popular to many people. Moreover, the executive lounge at commercial airports (apologies to American Club) hardly compensates for the aggravation of having to remove shoes and clothing and being groped by some uncivil servant at the check-in security point, which precedes the hassles and rush in getting ground transportation.

I hate air travel, but post 9/11, I truly hate air travel " at least the way Mom & Pop must do it. And while I aspire to the transportation perks of a Hank McKinnell or Bob Nardelli, that won't happen unless I become a free-spending billionaire in my next lifetime.

However it's not going to stop me from having my eye on something say a little more affordable. Perhaps fractionally owned. :-)

In the future, I'm going to develop a focus on this website/blog for the micro-jet (VLJ) industry (manufacturing, air taxi, fractional leasing, etc) -- a special-situations play. I think it will be a high growth industry for many years.

The VLJ market already has a few notable manufacturers like Eclipse Aviation, Honda Aviation, Cessna, Adam Aircraft Industries, and even Bombardier and Embraer. Firms like NetJets and FlexJet, are players in the add-on market.

Maybe readers could research lists of manufacturers, leasing and air-taxi service companies whose shares are traded? I'll take it from there. TIA.

Today we'll look at something a little more substantial than VLJ aircraft manufacture.

Embraer is a $6 billion market cap Brazilian company that competes for the global regional jet market, and succeeds. The company is in the Cara 100. Here is a brief report from the independent research company Sabrient Systems LLC. Download ERJ file.

Cara 100 GICS 20 Embraer-Empresa Brasil (ERJ) (ERJ) Financial Data

In terms of an entry point to a potentially long-term holding, an ERJ price of $32, hit last Wednesday would have been the first desirable one. Along with the broad market rally, the stock bounced to $34.51, which I believe is over-bought.

UBS agrees with me, and downgraded the rating for ERJ on May 15. That suits me to a tee. Download UBS report on ERJ

With a long-term view, I expect that through the bear market (2006-7) a price of 10X earnings of $2.43 could be hit (i.e., $24-25), and in the ensuing bull market the stock could double (over say 3 years), which, with a current (and probably growing) dividend of $1.10, would result in a healthy annualized growth in your portfolio.

Remember, a successful trader is focused on risk (best managed via attaining the lowest cost base, in quality companies), cash flow (dividend to cost base), and potential reward (unknown in the present, but in time will be total return based on dividends, share price growth and possibly put and call option overwriting).

Patience and discipline works. Trust me. That plus a VLJ will have you flying high " but not to the moon.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 29, 2006 07:25:06 AM | Category: 20 Industrials , Situational Investing

Discourse

Netjets has lost money every year since Warren bought it for BRK; it has been quite a disappoinment to say the least. If a fractional jet ownership company can't profit during these times of unprecedented corporate and individual high net worth prosperity when can it. There are those who say Buffett is so enthralled with Santulli that he'll take the yearly hit in Netjets simply to have him on the bench as a likely successor which I think is true.

Posted by: blackswan [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 29, 2006 1:40 PM [link]