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May 2, 2006

Excellent quant study from UBS, Tues., May 2, 2006, 10:45 AM

Now and then I come across an excellent piece of work from Wall Street where I just say "I wish I could produce stuff like that". Using a Value Creation Analysis Model (VCAM), UBS analysts Austin Burkett and David Bianco produce an excellent study of the 410 non-financial companies in the S&P500. Download UBS VCAM report on S&P

This is the kind of research report I'll be reading from a beach in Bahamas " when I get to make the permanent move sometime within a year. But you'll need broadband to download this report because it is about 2.2 MB.

I note that UBS reports an earnings growth rate on these 410 companies as +6.6 pct from the perspective of the buy side and +11.1 pct from the sell side. That's just the rose-colored eye glasses syndrome at work.

Another word for it is that the world is built on b.s.

On page 5 of the report, there is an excellent strategic allocation table for the general public and money managers. Generally, I think they are very close to the mark. However I see some obvious differences with my thinking.

I'd equal-weight (not over-weight) financials, and instead of UBS going 21 pct to 25 pct weighting, I'd go to 15 pct. I'd drop Commercial Banks and Diversified Financial stocks down to equal-weight.

I'd move Basic Materials from under-weight to equal weight, and go from 3 pct to 6 pct, not 1 pct. Obviously mining gets much heavier weighting in my universe. Some people even think it's the center of it, but that's not true. I'm just writing about it more now because it's in play.

I think the UBS weighting of Industrials (sector 20), going from 11 pct to 20 pct is good because of the decline in the USD, which will open new sales markets to U.S. manufacturers, but the whole capex thing is overdone in my view, so I'd move the weighting up to 16 pct. Of course, all my remarks relate to post bear market developments. I'm just addressing considerations for long-term conservative value-oriented investors.

UBS recommends a zero weighting of telecom services from the S&P500 stocks, and I agree. But for a S&P1200 global portfolio (U.S. S&P500, UK and Euro S&P350, Japan S&P150, Canada S&P60, LatAm S&P40, Australia S&P50 and Asia S&P50), I'd have 1 pct in (foreign) telecom services because rapid growth in China, India, Russia, and Brazil is not possible without a strong telecom industry.

And yes, to the readers who inquired as to the GICS structuring (10 sectors: 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, and 55) for the rest of the world outside the U.S., here's the link.

Students of the market (and of course the professionals) study companies and their stocks across sectors/industries/groups " the same way Mom & Pop finds their way around a major retail store, i.e., by the numbers on the aisles.

Isn't this fun?

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 2, 2006 10:45:35 AM | Category: Quant: Value stocks