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May 23, 2006

Community discussion for Tues., May 23, 2006, 4:44 PM

Excuse my lack of writing today, but I was heavily involved with other projects, and noodling in search of answers.

After two years and six weeks of blogging (and communicating with thousands of readers from a great many countries), I reached a point today where I now actually do believe " not just hope "that We The People are going to win this constant battle for control of global capital markets.

I call it the Little People Thinking Machine. A new trading paradigm.

The three legs of the capitalist stool (the Global Banks, the Gnomes, and the Little People) have always tilted away from us, and our rich and powerful opponents have been getting increasingly richer and more powerful.

But as in all things in nature, change is the only constant.

It's not an argument I can easily articulate at this point, and it may take me the rest of the year, but with your help I believe I will be able to present an effective argument that the markets information fed to us by the Global Banks and the Gnomes (most of which is either random noise or flat-out deception) will be sufficiently filtered by enough skeptics (like myself), and organized into effective data structures (like the primitive GICS) and processed intelligently by enough free thinking complex human systems (like this community and others), that the result will be a new trading paradigm where the owners and managers of capital will take back our market from those who oppose us.

By the latter point, I refer to those who are supposed to be providing services to us, and not dictating to us.

I have said this before; once the Little People recognize what's at stake, and decide to go down this road with me, we hold the unfair advantage over the Global Banks and the Gnomes in that their sides cannot cope with the law of big numbers " either in their ability to control their big assets or defend against our strength in numbers.

In somewhat esoteric terms, I think of it as the difference between the computational power of a relatively few hierarchically structured supercomputers (controlled by the opposing armies) in competition against hundreds of millions of network-modelled pc's and mobile devices (operated by the Little People).

That is the battlefield. We have almost won it.

And just like the Soviet army ignored instructions from the Kremlin and stood by while a handful of "insurgents" took control for the people, bringing down the Empire's Iron Curtain in the process, just 15 years ago, the Global Banks will watch their assets depart by the elevators and cross over to Main Street. The Wall of the Wall Street will crumble. Next, the Gnomes will see that the walls of their home castles and their centers of production in the mines and oilfields could not be built high enough to keep their serfs inside and the rest of us outside.

This sea change is inevitable because the market is us. We are the market.

My conclusion that the end is near has been derived by multiple inputs such as the observation that the Global Banks ("Humungous Bank & Broker") are incredibly busy seizing control and linking their electronic trading exchanges and their market databases and information providers. They are fortifying their position.

They have also been organizing their mass media with CNBC, for example, taking James Cramer back into their fold, promoting him like an omnipresent Little People Martha Stewart and now sending him to our college campuses to drill into our young people the notion of eminent power of his former employer Goldman Sachs, and their colleagues like Lehman, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. Such obvious tactics are doomed to fail.

For their part, the Gnomes are now quickly marshalling their capital to take control of the relatively few major commodity producers of the world because we are onto the games they play with the paper money of the Global Banks. I have a sense the Gnomes are in a panic to control these natural resources at whatever cost they believe is necessary. Such foolishness.

But through all of this, the Little People are encroaching, day by day, little by little.

For years we have been taking the economy underground, outside of the grasp of our opponents. We are now putting into our mattresses, here and there, an ounce of gold or silver, which, among the hundreds of millions of us, amounts to an impressive war chest.

Laugh if you will. I have my doubters. But the thing is that I have felt it for a while and now actually do believe that control over the global capital market will soon be ours.

Like I say, it may take some time before I can effectively articulate my thoughts.

But hear my words... "We The People".

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 23, 2006 04:44:05 PM | Category: Community Chat

Discourse

Wow! , Impressive, interesting to read this kind of thoughts from a man with a life experience like yours. I will be very happy to read more about this subject, Keep up your great work !

Posted by: real1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2006 6:14 PM [link]

Great blog, Bill, and I say that as one of the great unwashed mass of people referred to you by the most recent Barron's article. I'm not quite sure how you believe that the "little people" hold the catbird seat here. Sure they have numbers, but they don't have capital. 15 of the 17 trillion dollars on Wall Street is controlled by the institutions. How can individuals really matter when they are so hugely outgunned? I think that the best that the little guy can do is utilize his diminutive size to get nimbly in and out of positions that the big boys have to do slowly.

Posted by: Novalawyer [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2006 6:32 PM [link]

Boy, that was some close... After the bell, SPY's went south rapidly, from 125.87 to a current 124.76. I don't think I've seen that happen before, but I haven't watch extended hours trading for very long. $USD did a little number at 6 PM EST and gold took a minor hit but has since stabilized. I'm hoping we'll get one more leg down as the rally in the miners so far hasn't impressed me.

Posted by: omphalos [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2006 7:44 PM [link]

Bill, you have the vision. “We the people� is exactly right! I believe it.

I think this evolution of the system is going to happen whether particular individuals believe it or not, so the doubters may as well jump on board and get with the program. Manipulation, deceit, thievery – these are not the values of a community working together toward a common good. Truth, honesty, integrity – these are the values that create real prosperity. They're not just words. These intangible internal dynamics are real.

Keep going. Keep doing what you are doing because you are right. I've believed similar assertions for some time, but always got hung out to dry by my “friends� when I spoke up about it; and I am sure it will happen many more times. It's a small price to pay to live with a free conscience.

The shady, squat, and stubborn gnomes do most certainly exist and some people are definitely becoming aware of it. It's a strange transformation because its not all that palatable and one needs a strong, but flexible constitution to digest and realize it. This is just the way it works. Truth is stranger than fiction.

Computers are the battlefield. With networked computers, we can all have the same information at pretty much the same time, leveling the playing field. Information is the fuel of the markets and with our current system, whoever has it first gets the gold. Is that how we treat our friends? Do we rush into the restaurant drink up all the wine and eat up all the food because we got there before they did - and then serve them the bill? Of course not. We have an appetizer and wait for our friends to arrive and after dinner, we pay the whole dinner bill because we want to. Not because we've been manipulated into thinking its what we are supposed to do.

I don't want to benefit at someone else's expense. I hate that zero-sum mentality. There is more than enough to go around for all of us if we will merely realize and act on it as a species. The only benefit is one that we can all share TOGETHER. Networked computers allow us to communicate all over the world and exchange information instantly. This is how we can act as group with a common goal. Before the internet, it was not possible, so this is a new step in human progress and we are the lucky pioneers! What an exciting time to exist. The early American settlers had the west, but we have the world.

The gnomes aren't nearly as powerful as they might have us believe. I see them like the Wizard of Oz. Lots of gears and techie stuff that makes them look and sound bigger and scarier than they are actually capable of delivering on. They are frightened and cowardly for the most part, so they veil themselves in illusion and insulate themselves from anything remotely resembling reality.

The veil of this illusion is slowly being pried open by folks from every walk of life coming together and putting their thinking caps on. The gnomes know we are on to them and they are nervous. If they are nervous then we must have some real power, otherwise they wouldn't be fortifying their positions on the battlefield in preparation for the coming coup d'état. They knew even before we did that they were fighting a losing battle.

As you said most elegantly Bill, we, the people, are the market.

“Back where I come from there are men who do nothing all day but good deeds. They are called phila... er, phila... er, yes, er, Good Deed Doers.� - The Wizard of Oz

... Long live the Little People Thinking Machine!

Posted by: CalexKitty [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2006 7:50 PM [link]

It'll be interesting to see what you have up your sleeve, Bill.

Posted by: smess [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2006 7:53 PM [link]

Bill, I agree with you 100%. The days of corporate dominance are numbered. "A powerful global conversation has begun. Through the Internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed. As a direct result, markets are getting smarter—and getting smarter faster than most companies." This is the thought behind the Cluetrain Manifesto. Those who have not read this work should do so.
http://www.cluetrain.com/

Very much appreciate your voice and experiance, Bill. I visit daily.

Posted by: Harry [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2006 8:07 PM [link]

There is no doubt that a revolution of sorts has begun. However, the Gnomes and other in power are furiously positioning themselves as we speak.

I believe that as the emerging markets mature, the retail trader/investor will demand access to global markets. This has been one way the Gnomes have kept mom and pop down for so long. Only the rich and elite have been able to access multiple markets. With the emergance of companies like Interactive Brokers, mom and pop have options.

The elite US brokerage houses see this (as funds flow out of their accounts and into places like IB) and are positioning themselves for a piece of the pie.

It is just the beginning. Access to more markets, means more options; more options means more opportunities and more freedom. The Gnomes see the writing on the wall and appear to be taking the stance that the wall built around the retail investor will only stay up so long. Thus, they are merging and acquiring to get a piece of the pie.

The one thing missing (that I can't see) is bridging the gap between the cheap money access the Gnomes enjoy and the retail investor. Once that wall comes down we will be liberated. Today, the Gnomes are bathing in money via 0 and 1% interest rates and then passing it off at 5,7,10% to mom and pop. Hopefully some maverick (Bill Cara and friends???) will step in and provide competition here.

Keep it up Bill and everyone. It was brought up earlier this week that knowledge is power.

Posted by: cb [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2006 8:51 PM [link]

See also, _An Army of Davids_ by Glenn Reynolds.

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2006 10:28 PM [link]

Bill,

Sadly, I'm both pessimistic and cynical to the bone. How can "we the people" bring such a vision to fruition when we tolerate, en masse, things such as today's Fed Chairman testimony before Congress w/out even blinking an eye? There sat the same man who abolished M3 reporting testifying on the need of Americans to become more educated in all things finance. Funny, his amazing hypocracy proved his point!

When the gnomes control the data, we're at a huge disadvantage. When the gnomes can skew key indicators and eliminate others altogether, sell such actions as "beneficial" via "sound reporting" practices and partnerships, and get away with it all w/out the slightest public uprising, "we the people" are at a huge disadvantage. How long until other key indicators are skewed further, eliminated, or deemed private in an effort to provide "benefit" to the American public? If and when it happens, will enough people stand up and make enough noise to combat the moves? Sadly, I seriously doubt it.

I found this article very good at laying out, in a fair amount of detail, the cause and effect of global market conditions over the last few years. It's nothing that hasn't been discussed here (thanks!). Yet, it's one of the better pieces I've read in a while due to it's inclusion, in timeline format, of various global Central Banker machinations and their impact on currency, commodity, and stock markets. Even this article is reactionary... would such an assessment be possible if data -- the same data controlled by the "gnomes" -- became even less transparent and/or accurate? Again, I seriously doubt it.

Posted by: Joe_Blow [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2006 11:20 PM [link]

Sorry... the "article" I referenced above:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dorsch/2006/0523.html

Posted by: Joe_Blow [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2006 11:22 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

Excellent Bill ... This Nation changed its values the day the Federal Reserve was created and then in 1971 it changed its morals when Nixon closed the door on honest money for good. We then entered the unfettered World of total fiat. When fiat money becomes untrustworthy it becomes worthless. The result of that process is that everything not fiat becomes very valuable. The first thing that comes to mind is gold and silver coins. Gold and silver cannot be printed and have no liability. Pure value that cannot become zero value like a US dollar. What else cannot be printed? Virtually everything that is not paper. That means in a highly inflationary economy or market crash all the junk in your closet or in your garage becomes very valuable.

Yes, there are changes coming and there are some already in front of you. We have already moved to an internet black market ... it is called EBAY. We are now seeing a time where we are moving to internet barter. For instance wwww.craiglist.com now has a barter section. There are now specialized barter sites like www.swapstyle.com and also www.titletrader.com. In virtually every community there exists a Farmers Market.

The common theme is that as fiat money moves to its intrinsic value of zero the bankers become more and more powerless. Their product ... their lifeline is fiat money in the form of loans ... in one word "debt". When "We The People" remove the bankers currency from our lives we remove the bankers themselves. Whats a banker without fiat? Whats a banker without loans?

As Bill says the movement away from the power structure has started and is gaining speed. I believe the foreigners will be the first to pull the "Sell the US Dollar" trigger. The foreigners, especially those countries exporting oil are through with the West's monopoly on petrodollars. The Russians which control 25% of the worlds oil, rightfully so, want their currency to benefit not Americans. It is, after all, the Russians who own the oil fields and produce the oil. They see the power structure in the USA is weakened ... weakened by decades of debt accumulation from unlimited spending. Weakened militarily by a Pentagon presence in 133 countries worldwide. Once the bankers see the foreigners no longer want their product(US debt)they will panic and demand military action and cajole "We The People" to take up arms on their behalf. Once that fails they will have their puppets in the US Congress inact laws that force US citizens to only use US dollars and that will fail. USSR all over again ... The black markets are in your neighborhoods already disquised as "Farmers Markets" and "Ebay" ...

We have the power ... "We The People" were given the power by our Founding Fathers who fought and won against the biggest Superpower of their day ... Britain. Why is it we cannot win against the tyrants and the cowards of our own government and Wall Street? Those who do not feel we can win have totally forgotten what this country originally stood for ... LIBERTY !!! Liberty to our Founding Fathers was freedom from the yoke of the King(Big governemnt), taxation without representation(inflation)and honest money backed by gold and silver. That was this Nation's birthright and "We The People" are owed this right ... so says the US Constitution.

Posted by: kaimu [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 2:07 AM [link]

Another time line to watch for all the above ‘Dreams' to start coming true will be when Bill moves and that place down near ‘Funky Nassau' is up and running. JMHO ;)

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 6:24 AM [link]