« Peter Munk interview on ROBTV, Fri., May 5, 2006, 10:43 AM | Main | We certainly live in interesting times, Fri., May 5, 2006, 3:50 PM »

May 5, 2006

Bond reversal was just the first shoe, Fri., May 5, 2006, 12:57 PM

Yesterday I made a point that spinmeisters use the release of key economic data as opportunities to play us. I said that there was likely a reversal coming in one or more of the key price series, like USD, bonds or gold.

My sole point was to focus readers on the role that psychology (behavioral finance) plays in the game. Today I had a little fun with the crystal ball thing.

In any event, have a look at the bonds. That's the first shoe to drop (in this case to rally).


003t010.gif


Now I have to get to the bank before it starts to rain. I kid you not.

Remember that sunny day I photographed a couple hours ago. Spot gold had fallen to 675.

Suddenly, from out of no where, the clouds rolled in, and gold jumped back up to 681.

This is eerie.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 5, 2006 12:58:11 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Bill-if bonds have a higher high and higher low Monday would expect a contra trend tade for at least 4 points-sentiment is extremely pessimistic towards fixed income securities and should add fuel to the fire. I'm starting to nibble at TLT around 83.65. Also may want to start writing puts on EBAY as it approaches 32. Looks like decent support between 30-32, and RSI on all time periods from hourly to monthly are extremely oversold in the mid teen area. Ebay appears to be have on operative 11 month cycle which would indicate a bottom in this time frame.

Posted by: patrick [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 5, 2006 2:07 PM [link]

A.G. Edwards says Iran's Oil Bourse could be a first Nuclear strike by them after all. See Yahoo for breaking news.

Guess holding on to all my GLD/Miners and OIL over the weekend is not such a bad idea after all.

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 5, 2006 2:36 PM [link]

Bill-

When they say "sell in May and go away" ... are they talking about today? Sheesh.

t4k

PS: could you comment on the incredible strength of BA sometime?

Posted by: trade4keeps [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 5, 2006 3:59 PM [link]