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May 7, 2006

A look back at ‘Love From Russia', Sun., May 7, 2006, 11:45 AM

On January 2, 2005, I wrote a piece on the Russian equity market. In doing so, I made a remark that unsettled some readers: "Compared to Russia, it is America that is the nation in deep financial trouble."

I've never been one to try to make friends " just to do the right thing.

Today, if you have time, I'd like you to re-read my ‘Love From Russia' article, and ponder deeply the kind of financial advice you, on the buy-side, are receiving, or you, on the sell-side, are giving.

Are you willing to consider new ideas, or do you just want to fall in line behind a proselytizer like Larry Kudlow?

In Larry's case, he is a non-stop promoter of America, the USD and bull markets. In terms of managing your wealth, however, or helping others manage theirs, you have to deal with the fact that, at certain times, America, the USD and bull markets are not going to do so well. A person with an open mind sees that.

Traders deal with reality. They consider all cases.

To start the year 2005, I asked readers to consider the case for Russia. I said it was a case of "Love from Russia".

To have a look at the result, let's compare the Russia Fund, a closed-end fund from Templeton (NYSE: TRF) versus the S&P 500 index (overlaid in blue).


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Just ask yourself how much wealthier would the average American be if they had invested in Russia instead of America since I wrote that article 16 months ago.

And btw, that goes for Canadians, Brits, Germans, French, Italians, and Japanese.

Another point of course is that there are managed funds that trade exactly like stocks on the NYSE. These are called closed-end funds and I recommend them. Templeton Russia Fund (TRF) is one.

Take a look at the closing price (net of distributions) of TRF from Jan. 2, 2005 to today. The performance has been stunning.

TRF May 5-06 $92.50 Dec-31-04 $40.34 Gain +129.3 pct

In addition, the dividends paid out for the past year result in a current dividend yield of +9.60 pct.

******

And, for open-minded traders, there were better results possible by investing in the India Fund (NYSE: IFN).

IFN May 5-06 $61.85 Dec-31-04 $26.00 Gain +137.9 pct

And the current dividend yield for IFN is +8.90 pct.

Yes, my friends will say that I called for an end to the India equity bull or a sidetracking for some time " I admit I did that Dec-02-05 (IFN=$39.89) " but my point at the time is that it is best to lock in profits if you are feeling uneasy about current market prices.

And, if you check the record, you'll see that I went back in Dec-28-05 (IFN=$38.44 plus dividend of $4.46= total $42.90). So India for December was not kind to me, but I actually caught the market price right on.

All of this is just to say that traders who fail to have an open mind (because they are set in their ways or brain-washed or whatever) are going to miss the best opportunities to increase their personal wealth.

Just remember, there is a lot of love in the world; not just at home.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 7, 2006 11:45:00 AM | Category: India , Russia

Discourse

IFN is back to trading at very high premium to the NAV - about 37% premium!!! See

http://www.blackstone.com/india-asia/india/fact_sheet.html

IFN also has over 2 million shares short which is over 5% of the total outstanding shares and about a week worth of trading volume.

The other ETF 'IIF' that typically trades at 5-9% premium is probably a better bet in the near term. IMHO it also holds 'better' and less risky stocks than IFN.

Posted by: mSquare [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 7, 2006 6:38 PM [link]

Bill,

Foregive me if I missed you commenting on this.

Van Eck Seeks Approval for Gold Shares ETF

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/whats_new/297509.htm

Finally.

Posted by: g034 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 7, 2006 11:35 PM [link]