As evidence of that look no further than: (i) examples of trends and counter trends, (ii) rising new lows along with new highs, (iii) bigger moves on both the upside and the downside, (iv) prices moving against the flow inferred by economic data, (v) startling moves in gold and silver, (vi) diversion between Naz/small caps versus Dow/S&P 500 indexes, and (vii) a myriad of other examples that show the market is roiled.

Mad Money's Jim Cramer must be loving this.

At the end of the week, here is how I sum up the events: The $USD index is in danger of collapse, so the U.S. Administration and Feds have stepped in, calling on some help from their friends in Congress and at a few of the Money Center Banks.

Almost all the action took place at the open on Thursday and Friday, which became the most important hour of the day in spite of the words of Ms. Bartiromo at CNBC. But that's what happens when extraneous forces impose their power on supposedly free markets " it shows with gap opens in selected areas.

The 60-Minute data charts I show below cover a 3+ week span. When you glance down the 10 discrete sectors I show, you can easily pick out the little fights that are ongoing across the whole war theater. Most times, these charts present a picture of a market in basic harmony ebbing and flowing in ways where some of us can sit back and appreciate the music. This week there was a lot of noise, unfortunately.

This situation will pass.

It had better or else the owners of capital will start looking for other places to put their capital to work.

In one case, however, we can understand the abnormal market, and that's because we are causing it. There is so much demand for silver, gold and platinum for immediate delivery that there is backwardation in the futures market, which is not the usual fare and must be closely watched. More on this situation later.

Global Market Summary

International Equities: The Nikkei made a small gain W/W, which offset a loss in Toronto. The small loss in Canada was occasioned by the first loss in commodity indexes for many weeks, but, like Japan, Canada is in good economic shape " for now. The Footsie did well because traders in Europe are thinking central bankers there can now cut rates because of a crashing $USD index and resulting strength of the Euro and Pound. That's like hope on top of hope.

U.S. Equities : Six of ten ETF's and 17 of the Dow 30 were up, so it's not as good as last week, but fair nonetheless. It was, however, another manipulated week.

Dow 30 : 17 up and 13 down. While a week ago only 3 losers were down more than -2.0 pct, this week it was seven (7): MSFT (-11.2 pct), AA (-4.6 pct), BA (-3.5 pct), XOM (-3.0 pct), CAT (-2.7 pct), HON (-2.4 pct) and UTX (-2.2 pct). Offsetting this extreme move were ten (10) Dow components that rallied more than +2 pct W/W. Only thirteen (13) of the Dow 30 stocks were trading in a narrow range this week!

U.S. Sector ETFs: 5 up and 5 down (XLF best; XLE worst)
First segment: most influenced by commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #10 (-4.4 pct); traders don't like politicians
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #9 (-2.6 pct); followed the oils
20: Industrials (XLI): #8 (-1.0 pct); segment move rather than w/$USD
Second segment: most influenced by consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #3 (+1.3 pct); but WMT was -3.0 pct
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #2 (+1.8 pct); MO and PG at #2 and 3
35: Healthcare (IYH): #7 (-0.4 pct); traders don't like politicians
Third segment: most influenced by interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #1 (+2.5 pct); friends in high places
45: Tech (SMH chips): #5 (+0.6 pct); down w/MSFT, HPQ & DELL
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #4 (+1.0 pct); bounce in T & VZ
55: Utilities (XLU): #6 (+0.2 pct); more "Dead Cat Bounce"

Bonds: Bonds were down this week but recovered a bit Thurs-Fri with help from the Fed; watch AGG and IEF on Monday to see if it continues to come back. I doubt it because I see last week as more Fed talk than specific action that would boost bonds long-term. And to those who say that there was a lot of positive economic news this week, my point is simply that bonds didn't move up until the Bernanke dog & pony show started.

Commodities: Finally; a break in the "same old" rallies. Everybody needs relief.

Oil & Gas: Smashed for now; but shall recover with driving season, hurricanes and more tensions to come in the Middle East, Nigeria and Venezuela. Iraq no longer exports oil " if you can believe it (and I do). Why are the Americans in Iraq if the 3rd biggest producer can't produce?

Gold: A veritable war zone between the Little People and the Fed; this week the slight edge went to the Fed, actually. Next week will be interesting

Goldminers: Up, down and all over the board, but at the end of the week I have to admit I see profit-taking in the leading Canadian-listeds, although the U.S.-listeds went up on the back of a strong opening day for SLV (Silver bullion ETF)

Forex: The $USD continues to plummet and the Euro rally strongly, (breaking out of reverse head-ad-shoulders) which is what happens when traders and central bankers wake up to what really is going on in Washington " i.e., Bernanke talking nice while discussing the future of rates, but quietly reflating in the background to try to hold the USD from outright collapse, while Precious Metals are re-loading for the rest of their quarter century moonshot.

---

Sector ETF:

Check this out: Tuesday morning the U.S. econ data is strong, including (among others) Consumer Confidence; and on Wednesday afternoon the Beige Book info was strong. Meanwhile the $USD is tanking. So why were the commodity and basic materials producers and capital goods exporters being shoved nose down in the manure pile? I don't get it man.

Well, actually I do. Bernanke is in his first championship fight. He is supposed to be the new Great American Hope " but his knees are buckling, his voice quivering, and his face pale. He's taking shot after shot (foreigners selling his paper; Iraq producing no oil; and the Little People seeking bobbles and bars of things gold and silver).

So the bearded wonder (I cut mine off, some say in protest) called out for help from his friends.

The President (does the man do nothing else but press conferences?) then told us in yet another seemingly daily briefing that (i) things are going well in the economy and Iraq (NOT), (ii) the U.N. will look into Iran (what, another 20 failed resolutions, while other nations look to the U.S. to spend their money on the next war?), (iii) Congress may have to look into price gouging at the pump (NOT), (iv) we all will soon be using alternative fuels (NOT) or driving smaller hybrid cars (MAYBE in my next lifetime), (v) his new ‘Snow'man will bring a whole new positive face to his White House (???), (vi) and yada yada.

What he didn't say was the world is now against him. Even the IMF apparently thinks so. So, he's real happy that his man Bernanke is screwing with the free market system the President so (publicly anyway) champions. And, while Bush is jabbering about nothing of consequence, he's quietly imploring his fighter to get back in there and hook, cross, uppercut, kick, ; whatever it takes.

But the Unhappy Little People are going to win this thing, aren't we?

Let's sing along:

There ain't no Fed big enough.. Ain't no war that's bad enough.. No data rigged enough.. To keep the Little People down, babe

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLF	33.96	0.32	0.95%	2.54%	4.56%	4.36%	5.47%	5.56%	12.04%	21.24%
XLP	23.83	0.06	0.25%	1.75%	2.45%	0.59%	1.66%	1.27%	3.25%	4.89%
XLY	34.09	-0.02	-0.06%	1.25%	1.46%	0.98%	3.30%	1.97%	8.88%	10.04%
IYZ	25.56	-0.07	-0.27%	0.95%	0.43%	-1.31%	11.28%	7.08%	11.23%	11.76%
SMH	37.65	-0.35	-0.92%	0.61%	2.31%	2.48%	-0.71%	-1.52%	13.03%	22.32%
XLU	31.32	0.09	0.29%	0.22%	3.57%	0.84%	-2.13%	-3.18%	0.87%	5.70%
IYH	61.81	0.64	1.05%	-0.40%	0.31%	-3.51%	-2.86%	-3.80%	3.10%	3.62%
XLI	34.53	-0.07	-0.20%	-1.03%	1.98%	2.13%	9.17%	9.20%	16.46%	19.15%
XLB	33.50	0.15	0.45%	-2.62%	1.67%	2.57%	8.34%	6.01%	21.95%	22.58%
XLE	57.14	0.64	1.13%	-4.35%	2.33%	3.57%	8.43%	0.86%	18.38%	42.74%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into your browser and then clicking on the link for Performance.

XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU

I think it's important to look at this 60-minute data across the U.S. market spectrum and check the ups and downs with the economic data. For example this week there was the Consumer Confidence on Tues. morning, Durable Goods Orders on Wed. morning, and the Beige Book on Wed. mid-afternoon, which were positive (for the commodity producers and the economically-sensitive sectors). But nothing happened to rally stocks until JUST BEFORE Bernanke got in front of Congress and the spinmeisters went into action, as I knew they would. Then look at XLF.

Go to this Link at Econoday and click on "Bernanke Speaks" on Thursday to retrieve Evelina Tainer's always objective report.

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) was for the first time in 12 weeks the worst performer. XLE has enjoyed a great run of #1 and #2 performances, but even Pavarotti needs to take a seat now and then.

Some of you are, like me, obviously moving from being over-weighted to being market-weighted in energy " and that's ok, but just remember that driving season is upon us, Iraq has stopped exporting oil, and hurricanes are going to hit the Gulf of Mexico in a month or so.

But for this week, XLE got smashed, going down -4.35 pct to close at 57.14 (down from 59.74, not 56.33 as was my typo last week). $WTIC (near futures for the Crude Oil) closed at $70.72, down almost -6.0 pct, which sums it up for the ETF.

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials sector ETF (XLB) was down -2.62 pct w/w to close at 33.50, so the beat has changed. Alcoa (NYSE: AA) was leading on the downside this week, going down -4.6 pct. AA's phenomenal run is over because the price was over-bought, but the company will continue to do well, and this is a stock that will consolidate in the low 30's and then rally again off a weekly RSI=50.

The big Wall Street firms are continuing to raise their price targets on the Basic Materials, particularly the metals. The big miners are in the sweet spot of their long-term earnings cycle.

Interestingly, this is one reason why I think that any broad market pull-back is going to be a short and sharp one " the first segment (GICS 10, 15 and 20) of the broad market is likely to stay strong and show market leadership. These companies are flush with cash, have solid cash flow and will continue to experience high earnings growth along with rising dividends and share buy-backs.

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The ETF for the Industrials and Transport sector, aka capital goods producers, (XLI) was down -1.03 pct W/W to close at 34.53.

BA (loser #3), CAT (loser #5), HON (loser #6), and UTX (loser #7), were Dow 30 worst performers this week.

Last week, I noted: "I still say that traders should look at the Daily data RSI-current price divergence from mid-March. Not good. Some of these big U.S. Industrials have had quite a run. They need to be watched carefully from here." So, I'm not surprised at BA, CAT, HON and UTX.

GE would have been listed here too except it has a big finance unit (GE Capital), which saved its bacon as the financial sector was strong this week (XLF #1).

The thing is that U.S. capital goods producers usually benefit from a falling $USD " and for sure $USD has been falling. But, that's moreso the case when unemployment is high and the order books are low. That's not the case today with these industrial conglomerates. So, late in this business cycle, these stocks will probably hang in better than most.

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +1.25 pct W/W, to close at 34.09.

I still believe that this sector, along with consumer staples and (consumer) healthcare and telco will suffer from a terminating housing boom (as wealth effect dries up). Higher mortgage costs, and costs of driving to and from work and shopping, and all the other rising costs (CPI and non-CPI) add up to financial hardship for many people. And wage increases are hard to get at a time employers can threaten to close plants or " get this " just openly discriminate against older age workers as did Swedish firm Ericcson this week.

The lack of disposable income and the need to dip into savings is really the biggest problem facing the U.S. market today. On the other hand, the aging population is causing estate monies to flow to the younger and big spender demographic. And the immigration window (legal/illegal) is open.

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +1.75 pct W/W, to close at 23.83.

XLP was #2 top-performer. MO and PG led the way. But these are not leaders of new bull markets, so I don't put too much faith in the price bump.

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) was down -0.40 pct W/W to close at 61.81.

Pfizer's (NYSE: PFE) minority shareholders and others were screaming over the pay package for Hank McKinnell, but they lost because the Old Boys Club (McKinnell's friends in Corporate America told sufficient number of financial institutions they would cut back on the corp finance and trading business if they didn't vote the "right" way.

This is a much bigger joke on Americans than alleged price gouging at the fuel pumps by oil companies. To even suggest to a financial institution they have to vote a certain way or else is an outright criminal act " but we'll only find out if it happened by investigating people under oath.

The bigger issue that I told the Dow Jones reporter his week is the true independence of so-called independent directors. Mark my words; this is an issue that is not going to die. Eliot Spitzer got it started with ex-CEO of the NYSE, Richard Grasso, and now corporate governance organizations are sprouting up to make demands that sooner or later will cause change.

For Hank McKinnell to look the camera in the eye and say that $83 million was the dollar figure of personal compensation to keep him on the job " in spite of a poor record " shows me just how screwed up this world has gotten. The man could and should be replaced in a heartbeat.

The compensation committee of a Board ought to put their recommendations to an independent shareholder vote, and if it gets rejected, these directors should be forced to resign as a matter of non-confidence. Otherwise, where is the check and balance?

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financial sector ETF (XLF) was up +2.54 pct W/W to close at 33.96. As I wrote a week ago, "Just when I thought the financials would run into more difficulty, the yield curve started to rise, which gives the lending banks some breathing room."

JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) was up +6.78 pct, and Citigroup (NYSE: C) was up +4.04 pct W/W. And TLT (Lehman 20+ year Treasury Bonds) closed Friday with a flourish. Oh, I'm left wondering how much stock the Fed bought.

Unfortunately, I cannot get it out of my head that the market today just reeks of interposers like Bernanke and his A-List of friends who run the U.S. Money Center Banks. They call it $USD Stabilization; I call it Screwing With Markets.

Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The semi-conductor ETF (SMH) was up +0.61 pct W/W to close at 37.65.

INTC was up +4.83 pct W/W, which I suggested was likely, and much for the same reasons as I now like MSFT.

When you see Weekly, Daily and Hourly RSI numbers in the teens, you have to figure that the Big Swinging Dicks on Wall Street are just loading their guns. Pretty soon you'll start to hear from the same Talking Heads, who crapped on Dow 30 component Intel for the past year, tell you Alice really does live in Intel Land.

Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The Telco sector ETF (IYZ) was up +0.95 pct W/W, closing Friday at 25.95.

This move was all about the possible relief in servicing debt, as the big telco's have issued a gazillion bonds, and if Bernanke can tell Congress lies about interest rate direction, then telco shareholders can play with themselves too. For a while anyway.

I say that as soon as rates start to pick up steam again, these stocks are going in reverse.

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) closed at 31.32, up +0.22 pct (7 cents) this week. That was the 6th best performer W/W for the 10 ETF's, and was almost a loser on the week, making it 5 ETF's both up and down.

I call it a mere bounce because of temporary buying action in the 2-year bonds. But, these utilities, like telco's, are laden in debt, not gold.

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bonds:

The Fed was obviously in buying a lot of toilet paper (U.S. Treasury paper) from the Money Center Banks early Thursday " right before Bernanke got to face the softballs from Congress. And Bernanke hit his homerun, thanks to the Republicans who then tipped their hat to the White House, and the bankers got to buy up their own stock (JPM +6.8 pct) and have loads of cash to lend (isn't fractional-reserve banking wonderful?).

That is precisely why Bernanke stopped publishing M3. He didn't want us to see the moves he was making in doing the exact opposite of what is called 'controlling the money supply'.

In my book, this is flat-out deceit. Senator Sarbanes made reference to this while questioning Bernanke on Thursday. That was a joke. If he was really serious, Sarbanes would have been banging his shoe on the table and making demands. And as soon as his voters order him to act in their interests, he will. He could demand M3 be re-published.

Anyway, turn to the 10-year Treasury Note Index, and watch the yield plummet on Thursday morning (27th).

Now look at the lift-off at JPM on Thursday morning, and again Friday morning, with these bankers smug in the knowledge we weren't getting to see M3 on Thursday night.

Are you starting to get it?

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.64	4.64	4.62	4.49
6 Month	4.72	4.74	4.71	4.63
2 Year	4.86	4.89	4.89	4.79
3 Year	4.87	4.90	4.89	4.80
5 Year	4.91	4.94	4.91	4.80
10 Year	5.06	5.07	5.01	4.80
30 Year	5.16	5.17	5.09	4.84

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.61	3.62	3.63	3.52
2yr AAA	3.63	3.63	3.61	3.51
2yr A	3.61	3.61	3.58	3.60
5yr AAA	3.73	3.75	3.73	3.59
5yr AA	3.73	3.76	3.73	3.63
5yr A	3.75	3.76	3.78	3.67
10yr AAA	4.03	4.06	4.04	3.88
10yr AA	4.01	4.04	4.02	3.85
10yr A	4.12	4.15	4.15	4.05
20yr AAA	4.34	4.37	4.35	4.21
20yr AA	4.35	4.38	4.31	4.18
20yr A	4.51	4.53	4.53	4.36

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.25	5.26	5.30	5.20
2yr A	5.32	5.35	5.35	5.26
5yr AAA	5.37	5.42	5.40	5.28
5yr AA	5.49	5.51	5.49	5.39
5yr A	5.57	5.59	5.57	5.44
10yr AAA	5.76	5.89	5.80	5.56
10yr AA	5.89	5.87	5.85	5.63
10yr A	5.92	5.91	5.86	5.68
20yr AAA	6.11	6.15	6.09	5.88
20yr AA	6.47	6.45	6.43	6.13
20yr A	6.40	6.42	6.37	6.17

Interest rates and bond yields.

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The 30-year T-Bond yield jumped from 5.09 to 5.16 pct this week, and the 10-year bond, went from a 5.01 pct yield to 5.06. So the beat goes on.

But there was some help for the lending banks because the 2-year Treasury yield fell from 4.89 pct to 4.86. So the yield spread on the very important 10 to 2 year paper went from +12 to +20 basis points. At the end of March, it was -5 bp and the bankers were calling the Fed screaming bloody murder.

I don't much care for any positives I saw this week for bonds or bankers because it will all be a passing imposition. Three weeks ago I said that interest-sensitive securities were getting close to tipping over the U.S. economy and equity market, and this week brought no change.

---

US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

Before we leave these interest-sensitive securities, I'd point out that there was quite a high close in the TLT and AGG on Friday. Let's see if this was a head fake for Monday. And the SHY (1-3 year bonds) rallied through Thurs-Fri along with JPM for the same reason). Let's see what happens to the 2-year yields on Monday?

And Freddie Mac made quite a move Wed, and again at the open Thurs. I doubt well see any follow through this week.

---

Commodities:

The $CRB index rally ran into a wall set up between Bernanke and Congress. $CRB had a tough Mon-Thurs, closing the week at 349.89, down -2.43 pct W/W " but Friday was positive, going up +1.21 pct.

I look at this as consolidation of the prior week's MONSTER MOVE " but it could be that Congress wants Big Oil as a whipping boy. I have always said that people in govt should look down a pointing finger the opposite way. But that finger is pointing, nonetheless.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

After being rallying +5.1 pct two weeks ago, and then +3.0 pct a week ago, this week was quite the opposite for Crude oil futures (the near contracts known as $WTIC).

$WTIC dropped -5.92 pct W/W to close at 70.72. Traders do love those dividends and share buybacks from the oils, but even more they don't like politicians talking about things like formal investigations and excess profits taxes.

A week ago I wrote: "Yes, I do think this fall we are likely to see $55 oil before $90 oil, so I think the long-term trend will reverse."

Just think, on Monday this week $WTIC hit a new long-cycle peak of 75.35. So consolidation is needed. I'm glad this trend reversal is happening, but the pull-back probably will be short-lived. I think we'll see $80 oil before the bear sets in.

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

Yes, I still think that the long-term play in the Alberta oil sands is a good one. After a significant pull-back, the Canadian oil sands stocks will have another big run.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Gold:

At mid-day Monday I took a stand regarding what I perceived as the Fed trying to pull off a miracle by divine intervention for an Administration in deep doo-doo. On principle, I ranted about the stupidity of people who think they are bigger than the market. I was miffed, and said "There ain't no Fed big enough; Anyway, this is a marvellous opportunity to jump into precious metals."

My charts at that moment showed spot Gold at $625.60 and Silver at $12.23. Fortunately, the week closed with spot Gold at $652.40, up $26.80 (+4.3 pct), and Silver at $13.67, up $1.44 (+11.8 pct).

That's just half the story. Note that spot prices have jumped above forward prices.

This week, $GOLD (which is an index based on near futures contracts) moved up by $0.57 only (+0.09 pct), but on Friday was down -1.2 pct, closing at 634.40.

Traders have to be watching the futures markets carefully here because backwardation has crept in. That simply means that current (spot) prices in the cash market (for immediate delivery of the physicals) is higher than the forward contracts.

Backwardation can be a sign of dealers unable to find physical supply for delivery, so they have to pump up the price to entice selling.

Some of that is going on obviously because of the new SLV ETF for Silver. But the ETF's for Gold are mature, and backardation is happening there. And it's happening in the Platinum market as well. I think it is a result of the higher margins, causing the pro's to sell their near contracts.

But it may also be forward selling by the miners themselves, which has crossed my mind.

I have to ask myself why miners would do this when they already have basically zero debt in their treasuries. The only thing I can think of is that (i) they are worried that the Fed will cause margin rates to continue to increase to kill this market and they want to lock in high prices now, and/or (ii) they want to raise even more money to buy assets in the ground (from the juniors) to replace their diminishing resources.

But then you'd think they wouldn't just sell the nearest forward contract, but several more. However, it's just a problem with the near contract, so I doubt this is happening.

Anyway, as I'm long the precious metals complex, I am concerned about backwardation. I like to see what is a contango on these contracts. And as soon as I find a miner selling forward in a bull market, I'd sell that stock in a heartbeat, and so should you.

As a matter of fact, I only put Barrick Gold onto the Cara 100 because I believed they had stopped selling forward. I never minded forward selling during a bear market. It makes sense, but selling forward in a bull market is a sign of weakness (perhaps legitimate) or stupidity.

To see whether there is backwardation or contango going on in precious metal markets, turn to the Metals tab at www.INO.com. Eyeball the prices between spot and the near forward price for each of the metals.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER closed up +2.94 pct W/W at 12.96, but was down -1.88 pct on Friday and even hit a low of 12.24.

The high for the week was $13.21; the week before it was $14.74. So this is extreme trading at its best. Day traders love it. It's hard on the rest of us.

I still say we're on our way back to $15, then to $18. I think the Fed can no longer hide the truth about money supply, and the pickle it's in regarding interest rates and the housing market.

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT was up +0.66 pct W/W to close at $1,146.10. But it was off -0.17 pct on Friday.

I have already noted backwardation.

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

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This week, $PALL gained +1.35 pct W/W, closing Friday at 365.68, but that was after dropping -1.3 pct on Friday.

Since on the prior Friday $PALL got SMASHED, then maybe this week was just a mild recovery bounce.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER was YET YET again the talk of the week. The contracts reached a new all-time INTRA-WEEK high of $334.55 on Thurs, but then sold off violently.

Still, $COPPER closed up +$8.10 or +2.60 pct W/W.

Three weeks ago, the all-time record was 264.23. That's about a +27 pct move (peak to peak) in 3 weeks.

Two weeks ago I wrote: "At this point cease listening to fundamental analysts. This is (all about) pure trading." Since I cannot believe the world economy is demanding so much copper, it must be a case of traders being caught short.

I see the June contracts are at 348 whereas the April contracts are at 328.

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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To spot the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, as follows:

AAUK NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners:

SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

And for the Silver Crazies, here is your favorite link:

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This week the U.S.-listed goldminers index ($XAU) was up +2.79 pct to close at 158.11. The junior promoters are calling this a ‘work in progress'.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Unlike the $XAU, the Toronto Exchange-listed goldminers ETF (XGD) was down -2.12 pct W/W to 79.43.

I am not surprised. At PDAC 2006 (March 5-8: Week 10), XGD was trading at or below 65. This week (Week 17), XGD hit 83. That was a +28 pct move in 7 weeks. Loving it, but let's be practical.

Having said that, it is my honest belief that some of these Canadian junior miners and prospectors (and many penny dreadfuls too) will move from cycle bottoms May 17 2005 (the day I announced to readers that the Gold bull was in action) of say $0.50 to $5.00 and from $1.00 to $10.00 or more before the top is reached.

Let's just say I smell speculation on the way " the SLV gave you just a whiff.

(Note: Investertech Hourly and part-hourly charts are incorrect for Canadian markets.)

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

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Forex:

If the trade-weighted USD was CRUSHED last week (down -1.72 pct), this week it was CRUSHED MORE, going down -2.16 pct W/W, to close at 86.11 " after toughing 86.00.

The $USD has plunged from 89.86 to 86.11 in 12 trading sessions. That's a drop of -4.2 pct.

If a nation's currency is a reflection of the well-being of its economy, then America is getting about 1/3 of a percent sicker by the day. I'd say Dr. Bernanke is no Doctor.

That's what happens when a stiff gets wheeled into an emergency room. It's too late to operate.

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

The Euro (priced in USD) was up with a bullet again this week, closing at 126.23, up +2.25 pct, after the gain of +2.01 pct a week ago.

What the Americans are doing of course, is shifting the solution to European bankers who now have to cut rates to keep their economy afloat. Then, and only then, can Bernanke move to cut U.S. rates.

And by then, Gold could be $1,000, and some of those Dollar Store mining stocks I referred to will be in the $5 to $10 Department Store shelves. Many will still be junk of course, but that's what happens when currencies get "rebalanced".

The key here is that a two-year technical reverse head and shoulders formation has broken out with strength in the Euro. This is a powerful indicator to traders who follow such things.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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International Equities:

The Nikkei and Toronto had small offsetting moves, but the Footsie was up a lot. But everybody has their eye on the S&P 500. Can it hold 1295? If not, it must hold 1285 or else these foreign stocks will likely get taken down with a global ebb tide.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), was up +0.14 pct W/W to 14.80 (which is just 2 cents). But the Nikkei Dow remains in a strong primary up-trend.

The Weekly data RSI is showing negative divergence.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The EWU (U.K. equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up sharply again. This week EWU was up +1.23 pct (it was +3.37 pct a week ago) W/W to 21.45. That's confirmation of a strong primary market bull trend.

Foreign investors are leaving the U.S. and venturing into Europe.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was down a bit (-0.20 pct) to 24.86 (a nickel) to 24.86.

The (bull) move that was happening here has paused because of weakness this week in the oils.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

There was not much happening in the Dow 30 (up +0.20 pct) and S&P 500 (down -0.05 pct). The Nasdaq dropped -0.87 pct mostly because of Microsoft (NDQ: MSFT), which was down -11.2 pct on concerns that future weakness is in store for the company.

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change. There were 17 Dow stocks up, and 13 down on the week.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JPM	45.38	1.43	3.25%	6.78%	7.56%	9.27%	12.91%	14.16%	24.53%	29.58%
GM	22.88	-0.29	-1.25%	5.00%	12.16%	8.64%	21.06%	-3.87%	-16.07%	-14.47%
INTC	19.98	-0.10	-0.50%	4.83%	2.72%	1.42%	-21.86%	-7.80%	-14.36%	-13.84%
C	49.95	1.80	3.74%	4.04%	3.95%	5.65%	1.34%	6.57%	8.82%	8.14%
MO	73.16	1.23	1.71%	3.71%	6.03%	2.01%	-2.43%	-2.10%	-2.60%	13.48%
DIS	27.96	0.20	0.72%	3.48%	0.29%	0.32%	14.59%	11.48%	17.38%	7.95%
T	26.21	-0.17	-0.64%	3.39%	2.46%	-3.00%	6.07%	1.24%	9.71%	11.44%
PG	58.21	-0.17	-0.29%	3.32%	2.84%	1.01%	-0.97%	-2.56%	4.10%	7.82%
AXP	53.81	0.11	0.20%	2.99%	5.08%	3.22%	2.34%	0.96%	8.62%	4.08%
AIG	65.25	0.31	0.48%	2.21%	2.92%	-1.24%	-6.28%	-2.10%	1.48%	27.57%
PFE	25.33	0.47	1.89%	1.85%	3.39%	0.52%	6.52%	-2.54%	17.81%	-5.10%
GE	34.59	0.16	0.46%	1.83%	2.07%	-0.17%	-2.21%	4.98%	1.59%	-3.03%
VZ	33.03	-0.29	-0.87%	1.57%	0.67%	-4.23%	8.72%	2.77%	4.20%	-5.79%
IBM	82.34	-1.54	-1.84%	0.83%	0.44%	-1.03%	0.34%	1.63%	1.13%	8.47%
MMM	85.43	0.20	0.23%	0.43%	5.51%	11.64%	7.99%	17.59%	12.05%	13.56%
JNJ	58.61	-0.04	-0.07%	0.41%	1.21%	-1.25%	-4.90%	-0.17%	-6.89%	-13.38%
KO	41.96	-0.09	-0.21%	0.26%	1.70%	-0.38%	2.59%	-0.02%	-2.03%	-1.71%
MCD	34.57	-0.05	-0.14%	-0.09%	-0.80%	0.06%	3.13%	-1.37%	7.06%	16.75%
HD	39.93	-0.29	-0.72%	-0.87%	-2.89%	-5.78%	-3.18%	-0.17%	-1.46%	13.79%
MRK	34.42	-0.18	-0.52%	-0.92%	1.41%	-3.34%	5.10%	-0.81%	24.98%	1.86%
DD	44.10	0.53	1.22%	-1.14%	1.85%	3.74%	2.42%	10.72%	5.00%	-4.05%
HPQ	32.47	-0.79	-2.38%	-1.49%	-0.46%	-0.31%	12.86%	3.77%	16.13%	59.95%
WMT	45.03	-0.61	-1.34%	-1.72%	-1.62%	-5.52%	-2.60%	-1.77%	-1.03%	-4.29%
UTX	62.81	-1.09	-1.71%	-2.20%	9.92%	8.26%	11.11%	6.91%	22.25%	25.82%
HON	42.50	-0.63	-1.46%	-2.41%	-2.10%	0.38%	13.45%	12.40%	26.49%	18.29%
CAT	75.74	0.68	0.91%	-2.74%	-1.56%	4.61%	31.04%	12.16%	48.31%	74.72%
XOM	63.08	0.66	1.06%	-2.95%	2.47%	3.21%	7.88%	2.92%	12.02%	12.64%
BA	83.45	-0.65	-0.77%	-3.48%	0.63%	6.41%	18.64%	21.72%	27.13%	42.12%
AA	33.78	0.38	1.14%	-4.55%	0.21%	9.96%	12.98%	7.92%	40.63%	18.24%
MSFT	24.15	-3.10	-11.38%	-11.05%	-10.79%	-11.31%	-10.02%	-13.10%	-5.41%	-1.27%

The Dow 30 winners this past week:
JPM, up +6.78-pct; and C (+4.0) and AXP (+3.0) were also strong
GM, up +5.00-pct; up on 1-hour's trading at the open Wed.
INTC, up +4.83-pct; up +7.5 pct Tues-Thurs
C, up +4.04-pct; Up w/ hopes Fed stops raising rates
MO, up +3.71-pct; Staples were strong w/dividend raises
DIS, up +3.48-pct; Extreme moves this week
T, up +3.43-pct; Up w/ hopes Fed stops raising rates
PG, up +3.47-pct; Staples were strong w/dividend raises
AXP, up +2.99-pct; Up w/ hopes Fed stops raising rates
AIG, up +2.21-pct; Up w/ hopes Fed stops raising rates

The Dow 30 losers this past week:
MSFT, down -11.15-pct; Last Q was great; next one dubious
AA, down -4.55-pct; was over-bought on copper alternative story
BA, down -3.48; sector 20 consolidation
XOM, down -2.95-pct; traders don't like politicians
CAT, down -2.74-pct; fell w/sector 20 and fell with the metals
HON, down -2.41-pct; another sector 20 consolidation
UTX, down -2.20-pc; another sector 20 consolidation

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Here are the latest Value Line Reports on Dow 30 stocks CAT, HON and UTX, which are all Sector 20 capital goods manufacturers that typically outperform during times of a falling $USD. This week, however, CAT, HON and UTX all got hammered, so the Value Line report should be graded #1 for its own timeliness.

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(CAT) (CAT) Financials (Here is the Apr. 28 Value Line report on CAT: next one is due Jul. 28)

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(HON) (HON) Financials (Here is the Apr. 28 Value Line report on HON: next one is due Jul. 28)

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(UTX) (UTX) Financials (Here is the Apr. 28 Value Line report on UTX: next one is due Jul. 28)

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Wrap up:

Be wary of Fed bankers promising to cut rates during econ expansion and rising commodity prices and speculative market environments. The interventionist moves Bernanke made to grease the wheels for his dubious message to Congress was the story this week. I'm getting a little tired of these authorities saying we have free markets. We know better.

BCara@BillCara.com