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April 22, 2006
Week #16 (2006-04-21) in Review
Last week I wrote, "Clearly, the end is getting close. You can smell it in the air." This week we learned the meaning of "intervention".
1. action affecting another's affairs: an action undertaken in order to change what is happening or might happen in another's affairs, especially in order to prevent something undesirable
2. market manipulation: economics economic action that is designed to counter a trend in a market, especially in order to stabilize a country's currency
The Encarta Dictionary spelled out our week as succinctly as I could make the case. And from my Thesaurus:
interference, involvement, intrusion, intercession.
Yes, I'd say that traders around the world were subject to all of the above this week courtesy of Ben Bernanke and his head trader Dino Kos.
For proof, I offer up a brief look at the chart below of the Daily price of the $USD Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Ergo Thursday morning, and my article on Friday morning ("The $USD sinking, sinking...").
You see, the way things were going with countries like Sweden saying "No mas! No Mas!" to the USD, which I reported here, President Bush could not face the prospects of President Hu showing up on the White House lawn in a limo full of wooden nickels.
I mean, the man has some self-respect even if his current Rolling Stone profile was not a case of Idol Worship.
Anyway, I summed it up on Thursday in my article, "A kiss before death?":
It looks to me like the Fed's James Bond trader (Dino Kos) was at the switch this morning. I think the debacle that occurred between 9:30 and 10 am ET was a set-up. Let me tell you why;
No, the word "intervention" is not a euphemism for what happened to global markets on Thursday morning.
Global Market Summary
Old-time traders have not seen a week like this since October 19, 1987. It's not that the market crashed or anything; but traders experienced unaccountable action they have not experienced for a generation. I told you a week ago I smelled it coming ("Yes, I have that eerie feeling we traders are in for a different kind of religious experience in the not too distant future.")
International Equities: From the Nikkei to the Footsie to Toronto, equities remain in a bullish trend, but still showing a diverging RSI (momentum) to current prices, which is a technical red flag
U.S. Equities : Nine of ten ETF's and 20 of the Dow 30 were up, so you might say this was a good week. You could, but I won't. It was, however, a manipulated week.
Dow 30 : 20 up and 10 down. Only 3 losers were down more than -2.0 pct: DIS (-3.1 pct), and HD and INTC (each down -2.0 pct) W/W, but four (UTX, GM, XOM and MMM) were up more than +5.0 pct W/W
U.S. Sector ETFs: 9 up and 1 down (Telco -- IYZ)
10: Energy (XLE): #1 and up +7.0 pct W/W with $75 oil
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #2 "up +4.4 pct W/W w/ gold/oil
20: Industrials (XLI): #4 " up +3.0 pct on weak USD
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #9 " up +0.2 pct W/W
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #8 " up +0.7 pct W/W
35: Healthcare (IYH): #7 " up +0.7 pct W/W (for now)
40: Financial (XLF): #5 " up +2.0 pct W/W (for now)
45: Tech (SMH chips): #6 " up +1.7 pct W/W (for now)
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #10 " trendline broken; down -0.5 pct
55: Utilities (XLU): #3 " "Dead Cat Bounce" on stronger bonds
Bonds: Bonds bounced back a little his week with a little help from the Fed
Commodities: Same old; Commodities keep rallying
Oil & Gas: Same old; Oil keeps rallying
Gold: Same old; Gold & Silver keeps rallying, despite a nuk-u-lar assault from Washington
Goldminers: Goldminers rallied big, but got quite a scare on Thursday, which for the TSX gold index carried over to a huge loss on Friday as the Philly index (XAU) bounced back
Forex: Bush calls it nuk-u-lar, and that's what we got Thursday morning after $USD plunged from 89.2 to 87.7 over Monday thru Wednesday, which is like going over a cliff; the Euro bounded ahead, up +2.0 pct as nations are scrambling to sell USD
Sector ETF:
This was a very good week for the Bulls, with 9 ETF's up and 1 down. That means simply that Friday's trading was somewhat dubious, with "witching" and all. But, in truth, the action started near the close on Monday, and I kind of think there was a leak of Tuesday morning's PPI data, which was, as they say, "benign". But that set the tone for the week.
For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Last | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into your browser and then clicking on the link for Performance.
XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
The Energy sector ETF (XLE) was the again the top performer. Over six weeks, XLE has been #1, #2, #1, #1, #2 and #1. This is why I advised being over-weighted.
XLE was up +6.98 pct W/W to close at 56.33 59.74. $WTIC (near futures for the Crude Oil) closed at $72.95, which sums it up for the ETF. Can you say humungous cash flow, share buybacks and higher dividends all in one breath.
Two weeks ago I wrote, "If macro-economic drivers are at work here, it could be that Crude Oil could easily surpass 70, and could go to 80 or 90 this summer."
Yes, RSI is very high, and yes that technical indicator of price momentum is slowing. But RSI is only one part of the landscape " as I wrote last week: "After some study, you'll catch the nuances of momentum trading. And never forget that momentum is a scientific calculation but an art form in interpretation, and in the big picture is just one of the many tools (technical as well as fundamental, quantitative, and economic) you need to have in your wealth-builder kit bag."
Sure there may be world political and social tensions building, but the summer driving season and hurricane season are rapidly approaching. The emerging economies are continuing to emerge. There are line-ups at gas filling stations. The oil men are still in the White House. Helicopter Ben at the Fed controls;
XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
The Basic Materials sector ETF (XLB) was up +4.40 pct w/w to close at 34.40, and the beat goes on. Alcoa (NYSE: AA) continues to lead the way, up +5.0 pct this week after a phenomenal run.
The big Wall Street firms are continuing to raise their price targets on the Basic Materials, particularly the metals.
And now the risk of inflation is increasing " even if PPI was made out to be a good number. By the way, CPI wasn't so hot " in Canada as well as the U.S. The problem is more than higher Basic Materials and Energy costs " it's the wage increases happening in the emerging economies that export goods to America.
Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI) was up +3.04 pct W/W to close at 34.89.
UTX, MMM and BA were Dow 30 top performers #1, 4 and 6.
I still say that traders should "look at the Daily data RSI-current price divergence from mid-March. Not good. Some of these big U.S. Industrials have had quite a run. They need to be watched carefully from here."
Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up just +0.21 pct W/W, to close at 33.60.
My take is that this sector, along with consumer staples and (consumer) healthcare and telco will fall away even faster as the wealth effect from a terminating housing boom continues to dry up. Higher mortgage costs, and costs of driving to and from work and shopping, and all the other rising costs (CPI and non-CPI) add up to many people being a day late and a dollar short.
Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +0.69 pct W/W, to close at 23.42. PG and MCD were Dow 30 losers #5 and 6 on the week.
As I have been noting: "Inflation scare is still a problem." It's not going away because "cheap foreign labor" is becoming more costly all the time.
The companies in this sector that crank up their dividends will avoid the full force of a bear market.
Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
The healthcare ETF (IYH) was up +0.71 pct W/W to close at 62.06.
Dow components Merck (NYSE: MRK) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) were under attack again. Merck lost another Vioxx trial, and Pfizer's minority shareholders and others are screaming over the pay package for Hank McKinnell.
I continue to say that the compensation committee of the Board of all major corporations ought to put their recommendation of a fully disclosed package for the top ten executives to an independent shareholder vote, and if it gets rejected, these directors should be forced to resign on a matter of non-confidence. Otherwise, where is the check and balance?
Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
The Financial sector ETF (XLF) was up +1.97 pct W/W to close at 33.12. Just when I thought the financials would run into more difficulty, the yield curve started to rise, which gives the lending banks some breathing room.
But there were some warning shots on the earnings reports of a couple big banks.
Did you see how Citigroup (NYSE: C), the world's premier financial company, had a terrific earnings report but was down in share price over the week? Maybe the Saudi Prince was expecting more? Do you think?
Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
The semi-conductor ETF (SMH) was up +1.68 pct W/W to close at 37.42.
INTC was the third worst performer this week of the Dow 30. And Intel is linked to Dell, which got smashed after Citigroup downgraded DELL to SELL, for the first time that's ever happened.
This just goes to show that the global economy may be rapidly advancing in inflated currency, but in unit volumes the growth is modest, to say the least.
But competition persists, so inventory problems will always be there unless the product is moving rapidly out the factory door to customers.
Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)
The Telco sector ETF (IYZ) was down -0.51 pct W/W, closing Friday at 25.32.
Verizon (NYSE: VZ) was 4th worst Dow 30 performer after being 5th worst a week earlier, and three weeks earlier.
Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)
The Utilities ETF (XLU) closed at 31.25, up +3.34 pct this week. That was the 3rd best performer W/W for the 10 ETF's.
Still, I call it a mere bounce because of bonds. These telco's are laden in debt, not gold.
Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

Bonds:
Did I not say last week, "But traders who are short bonds ought to be ready to cover. You will not see Stochastics at near-zero and RSI values below 20 for too long. The absolute worst thing about day trading is having your head handed to you on a platter. It happens to everybody, and it's part of a trader's education; but it's a horrible feeling nonetheless."?
So, what happened? Bonds rallied. Not much mind you; but they rallied off way over-sold levels.
How far higher? Not much, I'd say. The USD is in trouble for legit reasons that also will continue to impact bond prices.






| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 4.62 | 4.60 | 4.57 | 4.56 |
| 6 Month | 4.71 | 4.70 | 4.73 | 4.61 |
| 2 Year | 4.89 | 4.88 | 4.94 | 4.73 |
| 3 Year | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.96 | 4.70 |
| 5 Year | 4.91 | 4.92 | 4.96 | 4.68 |
| 10 Year | 5.01 | 5.04 | 5.04 | 4.70 |
| 30 Year | 5.09 | 5.13 | 5.11 | 4.72 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.60 | 3.41 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.61 | 3.60 | 3.55 | 3.44 |
| 2yr A | 3.58 | 3.58 | 3.56 | 3.54 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.69 | 3.57 |
| 5yr AA | 3.73 | 3.74 | 3.72 | 3.60 |
| 5yr A | 3.78 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 3.62 |
| 10yr AAA | 4.04 | 4.04 | 4.01 | 3.81 |
| 10yr AA | 4.02 | 4.02 | 3.99 | 3.80 |
| 10yr A | 4.15 | 4.18 | 4.13 | 3.95 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.35 | 4.34 | 4.32 | 4.18 |
| 20yr AA | 4.31 | 4.32 | 4.30 | 4.15 |
| 20yr A | 4.53 | 4.53 | 4.47 | 4.21 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 5.30 | 5.28 | 5.33 | 5.12 |
| 2yr A | 5.35 | 5.35 | 5.44 | 5.20 |
| 5yr AAA | 5.40 | 5.41 | 5.43 | 5.17 |
| 5yr AA | 5.49 | 5.49 | 5.54 | 5.29 |
| 5yr A | 5.57 | 5.58 | 5.64 | 5.33 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.80 | 5.80 | 5.83 | 5.50 |
| 10yr AA | 5.84 | 5.89 | 5.88 | 5.51 |
| 10yr A | 5.86 | 5.89 | 5.90 | 5.55 |
| 20yr AAA | 6.09 | 6.09 | 6.06 | 5.84 |
| 20yr AA | 6.43 | 6.44 | 6.49 | 6.13 |
| 20yr A | 6.38 | 6.41 | 6.40 | 6.05 |
Interest rates and bond yields.

The 30-year T-Bond yield dropped to 5.09 from 5.11 pct, but is still up from 4.71 pct in four weeks. The 10-year bond, while down from a 5.04 pct yield to 5.01, it's still well up from 4.66 a month ago. Even the 2-year bond, which is now at 4.89, has moved from a 4.71 pct yield. While there was some respite his week, these are still major moves over the past month, and they have resulted from inflation and political risks, plus a pull-out of foreign investors who are switching to Euros from Dollars.
Two weeks ago I said that interest-sensitive securities are getting close to the tipping point. This week was merely a temporary step back from the ledge.
I'm rushing to get to a dentist appointment, so I'll let you figure out the following charts.
US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts
SHY Monthly data series chart:
IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:
AGG Monthly data series chart:
LQD Monthly data series chart:
TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts
SHY Weekly data series chart:
IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:
AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:
TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts
SHY Hourly data series chart:
IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts


Commodities:
The $CRB index continues to rally, closing at 358.49, +4.75 pct W/W. That is a MONSTER MOVE. It was more oil and metals, as usual.


After being up +5.1 pct a week earlier, this week Crude oil futures (the near contracts known as $WTIC) rallied +3.01 pct to 72.95 " after hitting a peak of 74.50 on Thursday. Wow!
Does anyone recall the famous words of Steve Forbes: "Oil is soon going back to $35, where it belongs." I think he'll be called "Wrong Way Steve" or "The Man Who Can't Shoot Straight" after that call.
Yes, I do think this fall we are likely to see $55 oil before $90 oil, so I think the long-term trend will reverse. But for now, traders are eying those dividends and share buybacks from the oils, so it's still up.


Yes, I still think that the long-term play in the Alberta oil sands is a good one.
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Gold:
Two weeks ago I wrote: "Two weeks ago, $GOLD rallied to close at 560.10. Now, for Pete's sake, if it doesn't crack 600, traders seem worried. I say, take a deep breath. When $GOLD hit a high of 598.31 on Friday, that would have been a two-week move of +6.8 pct. So when the $USD is shot out of a flame-throwing Oval Office on Friday morning, $GOLD closed at 589.15. Big deal. That is STILL a two-week gain of +5.25 pct. I know hedge fund managers who didn't do those numbers over the past 52 weeks! So, please give it a break."
Then last week it was: "I'm glad you listened. $GOLD was up this week +1.25 pct ($7.36) to close at 596.51. The high on Tuesday was 604.20; Next week or the one after that could be lift-off. Too many of the big Wall Street wire houses have recently lifted their metals targets for traders to ignore."
And it is true that MarkM wrote me after last week's close, figuring a pull-back, and I replied that "Gold is going to zoom this weekend. But what do I know?"
This week, $GOLD rallied +6.26 pct ($37.32), to close at 633.83.
But what do I know?
Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.
$SILVER closed up +1.16 pct W/W at 13.05.
But because it hit a peak of $14.74 on Wednesday, traders seemed shocked it didn't go to $15, which I have been forecasting all along.
Well, the Fed got in the way. Big deal. They also got some help from Comex and other bullion and futures trading markets to raise the margin rates, and that was a BIG HELP.
Anyway, we're on our way back to $15, then to $18. Why?
(sing along) THERE AIN'T NO FED BIG ENOUGH;.
Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.
$PLAT was up +1.88 pct W/W to close at $1,108.10. But it was off -1.94 pct on Friday " and that was after hitting an intra-day high of 1143.50.
That is called explosive trading.
Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.
A week ago, $PALL chilled a bit, down -$3.36 (-0.95 pct) W/W to 350.11. This week, $PALL gained just +0.22 pct, closing Friday at 350.88.
But Friday it was down -6.38 pct. $PALL got SMASHED.
Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.
$COPPER was YET again the talk of the week. The contracts reached a new all-time INTRA-WEEK high of $303.50 (up +$23.22 or +8.28 pct W/W), and that is where they closed, at 303.50.
Two weeks ago, the all-time record was 264.23.
I wrote a week ago: "At this point cease listening to fundamental analysts. This is (all about) pure trading."
Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.
To spot the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, as follows:
AAUK NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data
CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners:
SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data
And a link to read: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=sil+asm.v+cde+fsr.to+hl+paas+ipoaf.pk+ssri&d=t
This week the U.S.-listed goldminers index ($XAU) was up +6.77 pct to close at 155.32. Even on Friday it was up +3.44 pct. And the traders are now buying the dips, and buying the juniors.
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminers ETF (XGD) was up +2.38 pct W/W, but down -5.05 pct on Friday (ALERT!) to close at 78.70. Monday will be interesting!
(Note that the Investertech very short-term charts are incorrect for Canadian markets.)
Here are the Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:



Forex:
The trade-weighted USD was CRUSHED this week. It was down -1.72 pct to 88.01.
But the big news was the intervention by the Fed on Thursday morning, which shook trading markets worldwide. Not too sophisticated are those traders at the Fed, I'd say.
The $USD actually had plunged from 89.2 to 87.7 over the first three days of the week. That could be the new Wiki definition for the opposite of "emerging economy".


The Euro (priced in USD) was up with a bullet on the week, closing at 123.45, up +2.01 pct.
Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

International Equities:
The Nikkei, Footsie and Toronto Exchange all enjoyed a great week for the Bulls.
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), was up +2.07 pct W/W to 14.78.
The Weekly data RSI is showing negative divergence.
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:



U.K. equity market ETF: EWU
The EWU (U.K. equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up again. This week EWU was up +3.37 pct W/W to 21.19. That's huge.
Foreign investors are leaving the U.S. and venturing into Europe.
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

Canadian equity market ETF: EWC
The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up +2.89 pct W/W to 24.91.
The (bull) move is happening here, like Australia, because of strength in oils and metals. But, it could be that, at some point, rising rates will hurt the banks and income trust market.
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)
(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)
(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).
U.S. Equities:
A week ago I wrote: "Next week there is the CPI and PPI data coming out. The bonds are already on the floor and traders say they can't get up. Solid CPI and PPI would give them quite a lift however. Then on the other hand, traders would say that the FED would not be so willing to raise. That perception would shoot the precious metals, and probably the oils, even higher. So, let's just take this a day at a time. "
It was simply exhilarating, one day at a time.
I don't know about you, but I'm getting a little tired of the intervention in this market by the U.S. Administration and Fed. These people talk about a free market system, so where is it?
Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change. There were 20 Dow stocks up, and 10 down on the week.
| Symbol | Last | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into your browser and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
After you bring up the list, click on the Performance tab. To sort for the relative price performance for any recent period, you just need to click on the column header of the period that interests you.
The Dow 30 winners this past week:
UTX, up +12.39-pct,
GM, up +6.81-pct,
XOM, up +5.59-pct,
MMM, up +5.05-pct,
AA, up +4.98-pct,
BA, up +4.26-pct,
The Dow 30 losers this past week:
DIS, down -3.08-pct,
HD, down -2.04-pct,
INTC, down -2.01-pct,
VZ, down -0.88-pct,
MCD, down -0.72-pct,
PG, down -0.46-pct,
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
Here are the latest Value Line Reports on the Dow 30 stocks AA, DD, MRK and PFE.
Next week is also a big one from Value Line. We get free reports on CAT, HON and UTX.
(AA) (AA) Financials (Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on AA: next one is due Jul. 21)
(AIG) (AIG) Financials (Here is the Feb. 25 Value Line report on AIG: next one is due May 26)
(AXP) (AXP) Financials (Here is the Feb. 25 Value Line report on AXP: next one is due May 26)
(BA) (BA) Financials (Here is the Mar. 24 Value Line report on BA: next one is due Jun. 23)
(C) (C) Financials (Here is the Feb. 25 Value Line report on C: next one is due May 26)
(CAT) (CAT) Financials (Here is the Jan. 27 Value Line report on CAT: next one is due Apr. 28)
(DD) (DD) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on DD: next one is due Jul. 21)
(DIS) (DIS) Financials (Here is the Feb. 18 Value Line report on DIS: next one is due May 19)
(GE) (GE) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on GE: next one is due Jul. 14)
(GM) (GM) Financials Here is the Mar. 3 Value Line report on GM: next one is due Jun. 2)
(HD) (HD) Financials (Here is the Apr. 8 Value Line report on HD: next one is due Jul. 7)
(HON) (HON) Financials (Here is the Jan. 27 Value Line report on HON: next one is due Apr. 28)
(HPQ) (HPQ) Financials (Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on HPQ: next one is due Jul. 14)
(IBM) (IBM) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on IBM: next one is due Jul. 14)
(INTC) (INTC) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on INTC: next one is due Jul. 14)
(JNJ) (JNJ) Financials Here is the Mar. 3 Value Line report on JNJ: next one is due Jun. 2)
(JPM) (JPM) Financials Here is the Feb. 25 Value Line report on JPM: next one is due May 26)
(KO) (KO) Financials (Here is the Feb. 3 Value Line report on KO: next one is due May 5)
(MCD) (MCD) Financials (Here is the Mar. 10 Value Line report on MCD: next one is due Jun. 9)
(MMM) (MMM) Financials (Here is the Feb. 18 Value Line report on MMM: next one is due May 19)
(MO) (MO) Financials (Here is the Feb. 3 Value Line report on MO: next one is due May 5)
(MRK) (MRK) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on MRK: next one is due Jul. 21)
(MSFT) (MSFT) Financials (Here is the Feb. 25 Value Line report on MSFT: next one is due May 26)
(PFE) (PFE) Financials (Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on PFE: next one is due Jul. 21)
(PG) (PG) Financials (Here is the Apr. 8 Value Line report on PG: next one is due Jul. 7)
(T) (T) Financials (Here is the Mar. 31 Value Line report on T: next one is due May 30)
(UTX) (UTX) Financials (Here is the Jan. 27 Value Line report on UTX: next one is due Apr. 28)
(VZ) (VZ) Financials (Here is the Mar. 31 Value Line report on VZ: next one is due May 30)
(WMT) (WMT) Financials (Here is the Feb. 11 Value Line report on WMT: next one is due May 12)
(XOM) (XOM) Financials (Here is the Mar. 17 Value Line report on XOM: next one is due Jun. 16)
Wrap up:
Unfortunately, I rushed out this morning to experience the pain of a second root canal. This appointment took precedent over my dance with Lee Ann Womack, so I cancelled the latter.
When Earnings Season comes to a close in a few days, I think traders are going to be left wondering about the future. I think earnings growth rates will become topic du jour. You see, higher interest rates, higher commodity prices, roller coaster forex moves, and increasing global political tensions don't make for a healthy business environment.
And, what happens in business sooner or later is translated into prices of securities regardless of intervention from central bankers.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 22, 2006 08:38:54 AM | Category: Cara Week in Review
Discourse
Bill MarkM and all
Here is another change at nymex that may effect energy prices on Monday. (margin related)
http://www.nymex.com/press_releas.aspx?id=pr20060420b
I have failed to watch these changes in the past but after what happened in silver this week it is something to be aware of not be caught off guard when you have positions in energy,metals or other traded commodities(both futues and equities). This may already be prices in but it could catch some of the speculators off guard Particulaly in Nat gas.
I would assume these changes only have short term effects but have not studied it. Maybe some of your readers that trade futures could comments on how to judge these margin changes.
Andrew
Posted by: Andy
at
April 22, 2006 4:57 PM [link]
History of The Stock Market
Roberto of 'Roberto's Nasdaq Trader' has a link to a history channel documentary titled: The History of The Stock Market - Modern Marvels. Good weekend viewing, a lot of what Bill talks about here has been happening for centuries, it has just evolved with the times.
http://nasdaqtrader.blogspot.com/2006/04/history-of-stock-market.html
/sergio
Posted by: sergio
at
April 22, 2006 9:51 PM [link]
Hello all -- Events of the last week are confusing to a novice like me. Felt that the miners had made gains too fast, too furious, RSIs over 80, flyers in in the mail from local coin dealers looking for gold, Iran making belligerent statements, so I sold out at what I thought was perfect timing on Wednesday. Was laughing all the way to the bank -- so I thought -- while GLD fell like a stone, and thought I would let things shake out and get a re-entry point. Friday happened with too much speed. I'm sure I'm not the only one. I guess I will let things shakeout for a while and seek another entry point, but I think I forgot one truism I've read here before-- in a bull market, the corrections are fast and furious, to scare the hell out of the weak hands; in a bear market, the trend is slowly downward over time, to keep you hoping. Here's hoping for another entry point, and by the way, thank you to Bill and the others for helping me recognize the trends and giving me the resources to make my own decisions...
EJ
Posted by: EJStockman
at
April 23, 2006 9:22 AM [link]
EJ-
I think you will get it. There will be plenty of other pullbacks in the next 5 years.
If you kept your miners until Wednesday's spike you did VERY well.
Keep a core. Trade around it. Never sell the core.
Friday's action was very bold. Going real long before a weekend always is. The miners did not follow with any vigor.
Posted by: MarkM
at
April 23, 2006 9:39 AM [link]
Thanks Mark. Yeah, I suppose the timing on the sell was right on. Still have the core. Trying to time the market will not be profitable absent a strong bull market in a given sector or stock for someone like me with limited time to trade. I would probably have done just as well or better this first quarter by holding on to the positions I established in October of last year, but I probably wouldn't have had as much fun...
Posted by: EJStockman
at
April 23, 2006 12:37 PM [link]

Bill-
This may take some of the sting out of oil prices. Iran and Russia reach a deal on nuclear enrichment. Will it also set up a gold correction off of these overbought levels? The equity markets will cheer both developments if so.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060422/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear
Posted by: MarkM
at
April 22, 2006 1:22 PM [link]