Bonds got killed for the second time this month as the focus is now on wage inflation. People want more; what else can I say.

The gulf between the upper class and the rest is now so wide that " pick the country " the masses are starting to make demands. And this has just begun.

Last week I noted the strikes and protests in Europe and U.K. In a slightly different context, the U.S.A. has been experiencing some of the biggest rallies of lower-class people in at least a generation.

People want more.

They want to buy fine things, at fine stores, at prices they can afford from a working man's wages. But what they see is the CEO's of one corporation after another walking off with multi-million compensation packages " taxes paid at that.

People are not happy paying $3.00 a gallon for gas in the U.S., and seeing their interest rates on credit cards and bank loans go up, their mortgages or their rent get harder to pay, their property taxes go through the roof, but their services cut back.

Then at the end of the month, it used to be their banker called to see if they wanted another credit card or line extension, but now the call is a reminder to keep those payments on time or else the fees get onerous.

So, people want more, but they are getting less, and they are unhappy.

So life is turning out to be a lottery, a casino, a "reality" TV show where the real stuff is dismissed. Traders too have now turned to playing the Naz and the Russell Small Caps, and the penny stocks because maybe they'll strike it rich, and get themselves out of this mess.

Gold and silver are spiking but nobody can tell me why? Yes, there are fundamental reasons why the precious metals ought to be trending higher, and I have covered them for quite some time. And, three months ago, I did forecast this to be the Year of the Metals. But what's happening today is a tad excessive; don't you think?

We're in the final inning of an overtime game. It's a time in the market when people reach for things beyond their grasp. Quality and value becomes mundane; it's buzz that traders want today. And they just might get it for a couple more months, but not much longer.

They got more buzz than profits this week. So let's take a look at the damage.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: Nikkei still breaking out on upside; but the Footsie was in a little pain

U.S. Equities : Speculation is pushing up the small caps and Naz, but air is coming out of the interest-sensitive and consumer-based economic-sensitive groups

Dow 30 : 5 up and 25 down

U.S. Sector ETFs: 4 up and 6 down this week
10: Energy (XLE): #1 " it's still all about money printing
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #2 " it's still all about money printing
20: Industrials (XLI): #3 " it's still all about money printing
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #6 " down with GM
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #8 " can't beat inflation
35: Healthcare (IYH): #9 " class-action suits and regulators
40: Financial (XLF): # 7 " lost -1.0 pct this week
45: Technology (SMH chips): #4 " why when volumes/margins down?
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #5 " tough week for VZ
55: Utilities (XLU): #10 - yield curve (cost to them) is rising

Bonds: Bonds were crushed for the second time in March

Commodities: Commodities rallied until Thursday morning

Oil & Gas: Oil rallied further on Middle East angst

Gold: Gold & Silver rallied until Thursday morning

Goldminers: Goldminers rallied until Thursday morning

Forex: The Euro rallied, and $USD plunged " until Friday

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Sector ETF:

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds.

The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N, but is otherwise unsorted.

For this week, there were 4 ETF's up and 6 down " same as last week. XLE and SMH stayed up, but XLB and XLI replaced XLP and IYZ as winners.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
XLE	54.40	-0.77	-1.40%	1.00%	1.40%	0.50%	3.23%	8.13%	1.36%	26.81%
XLB	32.35	-0.31	-0.95%	0.94%	0.50%	1.92%	4.62%	6.84%	17.64%	7.26%
XLI	33.80	-0.01	-0.03%	0.36%	0.03%	3.24%	6.86%	7.57%	12.07%	11.07%
SMH	36.32	-0.42	-1.14%	0.33%	2.17%	-4.27%	-4.22%	-0.87%	-1.68%	11.65%
IYZ	25.88	-0.02	-0.08%	-0.04%	0.19%	2.86%	12.67%	13.21%	9.38%	13.01%
XLY	33.66	-0.10	-0.30%	-0.38%	-1.06%	0.54%	2.00%	3.09%	3.60%	1.51%
XLF	32.55	0.01	0.03%	-1.00%	-1.66%	0.09%	1.09%	2.78%	10.26%	14.65%
XLP	23.60	-0.09	-0.38%	-1.58%	-1.50%	0.21%	0.68%	1.33%	1.37%	2.52%
IYH	63.65	-0.41	-0.64%	-1.82%	-2.42%	-1.00%	0.03%	1.00%	2.36%	8.90%
XLU	30.83	-0.23	-0.74%	-2.10%	-4.11%	-4.55%	-3.66%	-1.78%	-8.24%	5.76%

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) was the best performer, culminating a very strong three weeks. That's what happens when traders worry about events in the Middle East, West Africa and Venezuela.

XLE had a weekly gain of +1.00 pct, closing Friday at 54.40. Technical support of the 40 week MA (50.91) held. Any weakness stopped at the rising 40-week/200-day Moving Average.

But I noticed that the Hourly data RSI peaked at 90 on Tuesday and 80 on Thursday, but the price rallied higher through the open on Thursday morning. That is an example of negative divergence. Traders watch for these signs.

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials sector ETF (XLB) was also up on the week, rising +0.94 pct to close Friday at 32.35. Trading was far too frothy on Wed afternoon, so I had to say after the close: "I'm out."

Remember, I'm the Rat Catcher.

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI) was up +0.36 pct on the week, closing Friday at 33.80. That made up for the prior week loss, and was caused by the rally in GE, as well as some strength in HON.

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

You know by now that in my GICS list the commodity price driven sectors are the first three and the consumers sectors are the next three. You should be aware that there has been a sector rotation into the commodity price sensitive sectors [XLE (Energy), XLB (Basic Materials) and XLI (Industrials)], and out of the Consumers and Interest-rate sensitive sectors.

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) had another week of weakness, going down -0.38 pct, to close Friday at 33.66, which is just over -1.00 pct in two weeks.

GM disappointed, going down -6.1 pct W/W.

Do you recall my words of a week ago?

"Two weeks ago I wrote: "A component of XLY is GM, which was up +12.8 pct W/W, but GM is now a speculation, and not a sector play. Ignore it." After dropping -2.5 pct a week ago, this week GM was up +7.2 pct. That's what happens when the Company decides it has sufficient cash to buy out half the union workers of America, and just in case it doesn't, it decided to sell 78-pct of the only profitable venture it had, GMAC, for $9 billion. That's what happens when you let Wharton School, Harvard and U Mich MBA school grads run your company."

I was ticked that GM is being dismantled and the best parts removed but problems are not being solved. Can you imagine your doctor suggesting that just because you have a couple broken legs he (or she) wants to cut out your heart? Why do people attack the things that work well?

I'll tell you. It's because smarter people want them.

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was down a lot this week. XLP dropped -1.58 pct to close at 23.60. Inflation scare is a problem.

RSI hit 70 on the 22nd, and then XLP rolled over. Now it is bottoming, but if bond yields continue rising (which means bond traders are on the run), equity traders will not stop to smell the Staple roses. There will not be a rally.

Do you recall my words of a week ago?

A week ago I wrote: "(Last week's up) move could possibly be significant, and is one of the reasons I turned slightly more positive (i.e., less negative) in my outlook. XLP was in a long base from Dec-05 and broke out to the upside on Wed; The longer the base; the more important the breakout; But recall my words about XLP, which is a traditional safe haven: ‘There is no safe haven if interest rates rise unless dividends also rise commensurately'."

I think you are starting to catch on.

A week ago I also gave a workshop on the nuances of RSI. After reviewing those words, let's see how it turned out.

---

I wrote: "I'm inclined to buy the good ones in this sector when the Hourly data RSI drops close to 30, because I like the narrow long base action of the past couple weeks, and the break-out to the upside before that, but the truth is I just don't know.

The concern I have is with my favorite stock in this group Diageo (and that's not just because I'll be drinking Guinness at the Fitzpatrick's week-late St. Patty's Day house party tonight). If you look at the DEO Daily data chart for March, you'll see the higher cycle high for the share price, but a negative divergence with RSI, which came in with a lower high.

Unquestionably the DEO gains of the previous four weeks (leading to St. Patrick's Day!) need to be consolidated, so here is a good case study for interpreting the nuances of RSI. Think of the post-rally period like a hang-over, where your good sense is a little fuzzy and it's best to wait a while before acting on the usual indicators. "

---

Well, for DEO, the Hourly RSI dipped below 30 at the Wed. open, but could not rally. The stock closed the week down 33 cents (-0.52 pct). The Daily and Weekly show that more RSI work on the downside is needed before DEO is ready for accumulation.

Part of that has to do with rising interest rates. If oil prices also continue to rise, then the Little People who drink all that Guinness have to cut back on a pint or two each week. But when you add up the hundreds of millions who drink the good stuff, that's a lot of pints!

But the Fitzpatricks tried to hold up their end of the deal, I can tell you. All of that toe tapping to the Irish songs and music of five guitars and banjos and some drums and spoons is the perfect set up for a pint or two.

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

I see my words from last week re IYH were not wasted.

"In spite of the humungous Big Pharma lobby in Congress, I still feel that this is the time that the pol's have to "get spending under control, and besides military spending, which cannot slow in the present circumstances, where else in the economy is spending out of control but within healthcare?... So I don't see broad market leadership in a possible rally coming from this sector at present."

IYH (Healthcare) was down -1.82 pct W/W to $63.65. Besides, there is some concerns about class-action suits as well. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Merck (NYSE: MRK) were two of the worst six Dow performers this week, down -4.23 pct and -2.27 pct, respectively.

Key support for IYH (40 Week MA = 62.86) might hold. And then there looks to be support at 62.50.

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financial sector ETF (XLF) was 7th best (4th worst) this week after being 3rd worst a week ago.

XLF dropped -1.00 pct W/W to close at 32.55. On the 28th, there was a very low Hourly data RSI (~10), but XLF could not rally.

And if you go back on that chart to the 16th, the Hourly data RSI hit almost 90, and then the ETF collapsed. To see why, you have to look at the econ data that day. CPI and housing starts were out at 8:30am. That's what it took to kill the financials and the bond market. Look at all the bond charts (below) as well as XLF to see the evidence.

But the spin on CNBC that day was incredible. One TH after another told you not to worry about inflation. The reason? That's simple: they work for bankers, and they'd rather have themselves and their best clients get off a sinking ship before the Little People.

Do you understand why I always say there is no room for conflicts of interest when money is involved? But Wall Street is riddled with them. For a reason, unfortunately.

As to economics, I think you know my views: when the yield curve stays flat and rises, as it did this week, then it's tough sledding for the bankers. What has saved some this month is M&A and trading profits. Trading against you.

Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The technology sector has a number of good ETF's. I use the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) as a proxy for the sector. That's because you cannot manufacture technology without chips.

SMH was up modestly +0.33 pct W/W to 36.32. But the interesting thing that happened this week was that the Gnomes tried to pull a fast one and it did not work. They tried to collapse SMH at the Tuesday close (which they did), and slingshot the Wednesday open, but the rally died because there was no gas in the tank. The public needs more. They need exciting earnings and strong guidance, not for example the stuff that came out of my old company Genesis Microchip (NDQ: GNSS), which was a disaster.

More chip and dip to come.

Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The Telco sector ETF (IYZ) had a flat week, closing Friday at 25.88, down a penny.

But Verizon (NYSE: VZ) was in tough, down -2.60 pct.

And the Weekly data RSI is at 78, so good luck to the Bulls. The last time RSI was like that for IYZ was back in December 2004 and things got ugly after that.

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

A week ago I wrote:

"In the past several weeks I have been reminding you about the Rat Catcher, in the form of rising interest rates. I don't like interest-sensitive XLU (Utilities sector ETF) when rates are rising. This was another bad week for XLU as it dropped -2.05 pct to 31.49. As I see it, the hot money that chased these stocks for several years will be switching increasingly to bonds as yields rise, so where is the push going to come from? I suppose the economy could slow or go recessive, which would push bond prices up and yields down, but the offset of that is that such an economic environment is not good for utility company earnings. So at this point it is a question of choose your poison. I'd avoid any poison."

Well, XLU dropped this week -2.10 pct to 30.83. Worst ETF of the ten.

A month ago the risk-free bond yield was 4.50 pct; now it's 4.90 pct. Kinda tough for the relative yield attractiveness of utility stocks, and for their bond holdings. Double whammy.

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

XLU (Utilities) was down -0.71 pct W/W to $32.30.

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Bonds:

You recall how a week ago I laughed at all the bond hype: "A lot was talked and written about bonds this week, but maybe I'm blind. I don't see where the action was."

The growing concern for rate hikes by the Fed, caused by wage push inflation and commodity price inflation, is starting to take hold. Bond traders are on the run.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.48	4.48	4.52	4.48
6 Month	4.63	4.63	4.60	4.56
2 Year	4.81	4.83	4.70	4.69
3 Year	4.82	4.84	4.66	4.68
5 Year	4.81	4.82	4.65	4.62
10 Year	4.85	4.85	4.66	4.58
30 Year	4.89	4.89	4.69	4.55

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.55	3.51	3.45	3.37
2yr AAA	3.54	3.52	3.45	3.38
2yr A	3.55	3.56	3.57	3.37
5yr AAA	3.64	3.62	3.57	3.49
5yr AA	3.68	3.66	3.61	3.50
5yr A	3.73	3.70	3.65	3.58
10yr AAA	3.94	3.90	3.83	3.71
10yr AA	3.92	3.88	3.81	3.69
10yr A	4.09	4.01	4.01	3.89
20yr AAA	4.27	4.24	4.19	4.06
20yr AA	4.27	4.21	4.16	4.07
20yr A	4.41	4.37	4.29	4.19

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.22	5.23	5.08	5.08
2yr A	5.29	5.30	5.17	5.11
5yr AAA	5.34	5.34	5.19	5.09
5yr AA	5.41	5.42	5.25	5.21
5yr A	5.46	5.48	5.29	5.25
10yr AAA	5.69	5.67	5.52	5.37
10yr AA	5.71	5.67	5.48	5.39
10yr A	5.72	5.72	5.54	5.43
20yr AAA	5.94	5.91	5.84	5.68
20yr AA	6.18	6.33	6.11	6.17
20yr A	6.24	6.22	6.07	5.87

Interest rates and bond yields.

This was a killer week for bonds " the second real bad week this month. While T-Bills are staying at a 4.48 pct yield, the long end is taking off, and I don't think it's from capex spending, but from speculation in the metals, oils, and penny stocks on one hand and worried traders going to near-cash on the other.

The 30-year T-Bond yield is up to 4.89 pct from 4.71 pct in a week. The 10-year bond has gone in yield from 4.67 pct to 4.85 pct. Even the 2-year bond went from a 4.71 pct to 4.82 pct yield. Speaking of rocket launches, that's quite a lift off.

Of course as yields fly, bonds go in the opposite direction. The Bond King must be hanging over the sides of the Golden Gate. But we'd like to thank him for his words of wisdom of a couple weeks ago ("A 4.50 pct yield on the 10-year looks pretty good"). NOT.

I mean who are these people anyway? Candidates for Reality TV?

US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

The interest-sensitive Consumer Finance stocks had a very tough week. I guess that's what happens when the Fed makes plans to tighten just enough to put the U.S. economy into a mild recession in order " they think " to eliminate recession drivers like commodity prices and wage demands.

But let me ask a serious question that people don't want to talk about. Does the Fed hold shares in the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSA) like Fannie, Freddie and Sallie? And if so, do they actively trade them? And if so, could there really be a Chinese Wall between FOMC trader Dino Kos and Ben Bernanke?

Do you remember me telling you about Dino Kos, the man who pulls the switch for the FOMC open market trades? Yes, the trader who can't lose " the James Bond of America.

Well I'm asking about Chinese Walls because you recall how last week the GSA's got smacked? This week they got stomped on: Fannie (FNM) down -5.1 pct; Freddie (FRE) down -3.9 pct; and Sallie (SLM) down -3.4 pct.

Do you think it's possible our pal Dino was selling paper, and that his pal Ben was whispering into his ear?

I'm kind of thinking that maybe the next time Ben gets called to meet with Congressmen, he ought to get Dino Kos to tag along. I'd like to hear Dino's marching orders, and see if they match up to the minutes of the FOMC.

And if they don't, I think the next word I'd like to hear is "Impeachment".

Sooner or later, little by little, the Little People are going to get to the bottom of what goes on in Washington, I believe.

We've come a long way since Richard Nixon waved his hand goodbye ("I'm no crook") and Ronnie Reagan would just wave and smile and profess his ignorance.

I thank the Web for that.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities:

A week ago I wrote: "It took until Thursday afternoon and especially Friday for Commodities to burst out and enjoy gains on the week."

The $CRB index ended the week higher still at 333.18, up +1.90 pct W/W. It was a lot of oil and even more metals.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Crude oil futures (the near contracts know as $WTIC) rallied +3.69 pct W/W to 66.63.

This is a lot to do about angst over the Middle East. The reality is that more civilians and soldiers are dieing, which is an awful thing to happen in a civilized world, and tensions are rapidly escalating.

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

A week ago I wrote: "If there ever is a WW3, can you imagine how valuable the western Canadian tar sands would be?"

I suppose my timing as impeccable, but I haven't looked to see. Besides this is a long-term play.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Gold:

A week ago I wrote: "This week, thanks to a solid Friday, $GOLD was up +1.06-pct to close at 560.10. The next stage of this rally is 575. To get through that number will take a stronger Rupee and Yuan, I think, but at least Ben Bernanke seems to find himself without options. It seems that every incoming Fed Governor has the same problem. "

This week $GOLD was up +4.08 pct W/W to close at 582.95. Cracked right through 575.

The high was the open Thursday at 589.51. Then after 4 huge days out of 5, Friday dropped 1.06 pct " just to keep you guessing.

As for me, you know I shouted "I'm out" on Wednesday night because I wanted you to sell at the open. You needed to take a breather. $Gold is on its way to 625, but it's not likely to do it in one leap. It's usually two steps forward and one back.

So the precious metals market did get bubbly on Wed from speculative trading action, but the fact is it did break out to new 25 year highs. The action may take a breather but is not finished. The only way for that to happen is for Ben Bernanke to instruct Dino Kos to "sell out the White House, sell everything in Ft. Knox, sell every piece of Treasury paper the "Snow"man can send over. We're going to break the back of this inflation animal if it's the last thing I do."

Trust me, it would be.

So Ben isn't going anywhere " although the "Snow"man might soon be history " and the printing presses will keep going so that soldiers in the Middle East get their rations, their planes get their fuel and bombs, their Congressmen get their pork, and millions of homeowners aren't forced to flee their debt-laden homes (only to soon be occupied by squatter families waving green flags).

No, life will go on, and gold and silver will keep trending higher, week by week, month by month.

Until there is a crash in the stock and bond market. That's when traders will switch horses.

You do know, of course, that there are horses for courses.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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This week $SILVER closed at 11.51, which is a jump of +7.20 pct in a single week. A week ago $SILVER was up +3.8 pct. If silver is money (and it is), then it's becoming awfully valuable, even if it did drop -1.83 pct in price on Friday.

Even my wife was asking me about how much was the silver bar worth " the one she won in a draw this month at PDAC. Next thing you know, her hair dresser will be putting in a bid for it.

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

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Platinum had a slow week, compared to $GOLD and $SILVER. $PLAT was up +0.81 pct to close at $1,067.10, but you know it was down -2.9 pct on Friday, which is more than it gained in two weeks. So these things go both ways.

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL was also quiet, rising just +0.84 pct W/W to 336.84. The prior Friday, it was up +3.36-pct in a single day!

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER was very strong this week going up 2.90 pct to 245.87.

Do you recall the Wall Street TH's telling us that copper contracts would never get above $200?

It kind of reminds me of the oil market when it was rising the first time to $70.85. There was total denial. The TH's were saying it would never get over 55, and then 60, then 65. Then they removed their clown suit and stopped giving interviews. Well, oil dropped back to 56, and the clown sits went back on, and the TH's " including Steve Forbes -- said oil would drop to 35 ("on the fundamentals"), before it has worked itself back up to 66.63.

We'll see the same thing with $COPPER.

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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To spot the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, as follows:

AAUK NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners:

SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

And a link to read: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=sil+asm.v+cde+fsr.to+hl+paas+ipoaf.pk+ssri&d=t

This week the U.S.-listed goldminers index ($XAU) was up +6.16 pct to 141.62. It was a bullet.

But Friday was a down day, dropping -1.1 pct.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminers also had a rocket solid week. XGD was up +7.06 pct to close at 74.41, but on Friday it was down -0.3 pct.

There is not much I can say that I haven't said 100 times. This trading is now caught in a speculative wave. The promoters are on the phones 7 by 24. I don't know when they sleep.

Here are the Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

XGD Hourly data:

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Forex:

The trade-weighted USD which is shown as $USD, which we used to call the Morgan Dollar, was down -0.33 pct on the week to 89.74, which is out of fears that wage inflation is settling in like it has in Canada.

$USD was up +0.47 pct on Friday.

The cycle low on the Daily is 88.85.

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

The Euro (priced in USD) gained on the week +0.69 pct to 121.17. But Friday, it was down -0.34 pct. Like the $USD looks like it could break down, the Euro looks like it might break out. This is an important level. The cycle high on the Daily is 122.06.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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International Equities:

The Nikkei did real well this week but the Footsie was in a lot of pain. The Toronto equities were rather dull.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The Japanese equity market had a break-out week, both in Yen (meaning the Nikkei 22 index) and the ETF (priced in USD) that trades in NY.

EWJ was up +2.35 pct W/W to 14.40.

A week ago I encouraged readers that the Nikkei 225 had based and seemed ready to rally again. But now, after watching the EWJ hit a new high at 14.52 with negative divergence on the Daily data RSI, I feel the best it will do from here will be to sidetrack. If there is a period of major selling in Europe and North American equity markets, then I feel Japan will follow, as the gains will have been made.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The EWU (U.K. equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was down 1.42 pct W/W to 20.16. It did have a big day Thursday.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up +0.13 pct W/W to 23.63, which is a three cent gain.

The Toronto Stock Exchange index in Cdn Dollars hit an all-time high only a week ago. But I see a negative divergence on the Weekly data RSI, so that's not a good sign.

It could be that rising rates will hurt the banks and income trust market.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

The big story in the U.S. market is the penny stocks, small caps and Nasdaq movers and shakers. The Naz was up +1.17 pct W/W to 2339.79. The Russell small cap index was up even more, +1.50 pct to 765.14.

The Dow 30 was down -1.52 pct and the S&P 500 was down -0.62 pct W/W to 11,109 and 1295 respectively.

But the Weekly data RSI on the Russell small caps is now at 77.3. The last time it did that was about December 2004 (the year-end rally), after which it dropped off the radar from 680 to 620 and not back to 680 until a year later.

I'm going to say that a lot of the buying in the small caps is for speculative reasons. These stocks are not being bought; they are being sold " by good promoters. I fail to see the insider buying or the improvement in corporate fundamentals or strength in the economy that would drive some of these small cap, micro cap and penny stocks.

Usually late in a Bull Market, these small cap stocks have a run based on their stories. A few months later, they are referred to as the "penny dreadfuls".

I have been keeping a list of the unsolicited e-mails from illegal stock promotions telling me to "buy this stock today because it is going to shoot the lights out tomorrow". What rubbish.

There are laws, but nobody seems to care unless the player happens to be a Martha Stewart. That way the regulators and prosecutors get to personally participate in the buzz of the market. Shameful, isn't it?

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change. There were just 5 Dow stocks up, and 25 down on the week.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
AA	30.56	-0.16	-0.52%	2.45%	1.49%	0.53%	2.21%	3.35%	25.14%	0.56%
GE	34.78	0.13	0.38%	2.44%	0.78%	5.20%	-1.67%	-0.77%	3.30%	-3.55%
DIS	27.89	0.02	0.07%	1.60%	-2.62%	-1.17%	14.30%	16.35%	15.58%	-2.92%
HON	42.77	0.43	1.02%	0.75%	0.02%	2.52%	14.18%	14.82%	14.05%	14.94%
MSFT	27.21	-0.02	-0.07%	0.74%	-1.05%	1.04%	1.38%	4.05%	5.75%	12.58%
XOM	60.86	-0.26	-0.43%	-0.51%	-0.31%	-0.20%	4.09%	8.35%	-4.22%	2.11%
INTC	19.46	-0.24	-1.22%	-0.71%	-0.41%	-4.23%	-23.90%	-22.04%	-21.05%	-16.23%
DD	42.21	-0.30	-0.71%	-0.80%	-0.82%	2.95%	-1.97%	-0.68%	7.76%	-17.62%
HPQ	32.90	0.33	1.01%	-0.81%	-3.69%	-1.08%	14.36%	14.91%	12.67%	49.95%
MCD	34.36	-0.19	-0.55%	-0.98%	-2.11%	-1.41%	2.51%	1.90%	2.60%	10.34%
BA	77.93	-0.49	-0.62%	-1.02%	0.10%	6.19%	10.79%	10.95%	14.69%	33.30%
JPM	41.64	0.11	0.26%	-1.09%	0.58%	0.12%	3.61%	4.91%	22.72%	20.35%
IBM	82.47	-0.73	-0.88%	-1.13%	-1.00%	3.14%	0.50%	0.33%	2.80%	-9.75%
AXP	52.55	0.42	0.81%	-1.18%	-3.84%	-2.23%	-0.06%	2.12%	-8.51%	2.30%
T	27.04	0.02	0.07%	-1.21%	0.15%	-3.39%	9.43%	10.41%	12.81%	14.14%
C	47.23	-0.05	-0.11%	-1.21%	-0.38%	2.85%	-4.18%	-2.68%	3.76%	5.10%
MMM	75.69	-0.83	-1.08%	-1.45%	1.20%	3.86%	-4.32%	-2.34%	3.18%	-11.67%
KO	41.87	-0.25	-0.59%	-1.85%	-2.15%	0.17%	2.37%	3.87%	-3.06%	0.48%
HD	42.30	-0.08	-0.19%	-1.90%	-1.54%	0.24%	2.57%	4.50%	10.91%	10.62%
PG	57.62	-0.01	-0.02%	-1.91%	-2.50%	-3.44%	-1.97%	-0.45%	-3.09%	8.72%
JNJ	59.22	-0.13	-0.22%	-1.94%	-1.86%	3.05%	-3.91%	-1.46%	-6.42%	-11.82%
WMT	47.24	-0.42	-0.88%	-1.97%	1.18%	4.21%	2.18%	0.94%	7.80%	-5.73%
AIG	66.09	0.02	0.03%	-1.99%	-3.97%	0.93%	-5.07%	-3.14%	6.67%	19.27%
UTX	57.97	-0.05	-0.09%	-2.21%	-1.41%	0.19%	2.55%	3.68%	11.82%	14.05%
MRK	35.23	-0.38	-1.07%	-2.27%	-1.15%	0.11%	7.57%	10.75%	29.47%	8.84%
VZ	34.06	-0.43	-1.25%	-2.60%	-1.02%	1.43%	12.11%	13.08%	4.19%	-4.06%
MO	70.86	-0.86	-1.20%	-2.85%	-3.66%	-1.73%	-5.49%	-5.17%	-3.87%	8.37%
PFE	24.92	-0.28	-1.11%	-4.23%	-5.57%	-4.92%	4.79%	6.86%	-0.20%	-5.14%
CAT	71.81	-0.59	-0.81%	-4.89%	-5.80%	-3.75%	24.24%	24.30%	22.23%	57.06%
GM	21.27	0.21	1.00%	-6.09%	0.66%	10.72%	12.54%	9.53%	-30.51%	-27.63%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into your browser and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

After you bring up the list, click on the Performance tab. To sort for the relative price performance for any recent period, you just need to click on the column header of the period that interests you.

The Dow 30 winners this past 5 days:
AA, up +2.45-pct, up with the charge into metals
GE, up +2.44-pct, leads the Industrials higher with lower $USD
DIS, up +1.60-pct, but a week ago was down -4.2-pct
HON, up +0.75-pct, correlated to GE; still wants to merge
MSFT, up +0.74-pct, but a week ago was down -1.8-pct

The Dow 30 losers this past 5 days:
GM, down -6.09-pct, but a week ago was up +7.2-pct
CAT, down -4.89-pct, but is still #1 DJIA 52W performer (+57.1-pct)
PFE, down -4.23-pct " class action and Congressmen
MO, down -2.85-pct " inflation doesn't leave many coins for smoking
VZ, down -2.60-pct, but a week ago was up +1.6-pct
MRK, down -2.27-pct " class action and Congressmen

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

Wrap up:

There were a lot of hot spots and cold spots in the market this week. As for the hot money, I saw it in the summer of 1987 too.

At that time, I was heavily involved in a stock I bought at 50 cents that had sprung up to $6.00 in a couple months, and my staff was all watching, which is how these things go. So I called a staff meeting, and read the riot act. I told them I was selling. For a week or two the stock went higher " and then dropped off the board.

That was September. A month later the whole equity market crashed. That event was called "Black Monday" and you should study it. The Dow dropped almost -23 pct in a single session.

In fact, three and a half trading sessions after the Dow 30 had closed at 2508, it reached a low of 1677, which just happens to be a loss across the board of -33 pct. That's right; one-third of the best portfolios money could buy eliminated in less than four days. And it was much worse in other countries, and for stocks of less quality than the Dow components.

If you think that the Naz, small caps and penny stocks fared better than the Dow stocks back then, then give your head a shake.

My warning is clear: In October 1987, the same people " Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, and their friends " a week before the crash had been saying pretty much what their sons and daughters have been saying today. To wit: there is no inflation, yields will fall, the $USD is in great shape, yada yada.

But we knew. We really knew. I told my staff to get out that stock they were watching me speculate with just like I told you all on Wednesday night I was out of precious metals. Just go back and look one more time at Thursday's open trade for precious metals because that was the high trade. I hope you took my advice.

That's not to say I stopped trading precious metals then any more than in September-October 1987 I stopped speculating.

The point is that if you are going to trade in the short-term, you have to be smart about it. There has to be a strategy and tactics, and knowledge and experience, and belief in something other than pure speculation and following the advice and touting of others.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist. You just have to live in the real world.

Finally, as you know, my favorite country singer Lee Ann Womack will be at CasinoRama north of Toronto April 21-22. Yes partner, I hope you both dance and know when to leave at the end of the night.

BCara@BillCara.com