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April 21, 2006

The $USD sinking, sinking;, Fri., Apr. 21, 2006, 11:33 AM

The news headline says it all. But the article itself says all you need to know to buy the metals and the oils.

Dollar weakens on reserve shift: Swedish central bank boosts euro's share to 50%

By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:07 AM ET Apr 21, 2006

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar was lower across the board Friday after the Swedish Central Bank said it had significantly reduced its holdings of dollars in its foreign exchange reserves.



The gold and metal stocks are doing quite well this morning.

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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 21, 2006 11:34:08 AM | Category: Forex

Discourse

It just hit me that whenever Bill puts up one of these charts (top, bottom performers), COAL is right up there with the metals. It's not a "sexy" sector, but it should not be ignored. I recall the regular posters (MarkM, stockman, etc) have talked about some players in their past posts...

Posted by: Dave [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 12:39 PM [link]

Steel has also been a top performer for a long time. Nobody seems to look at that either.

Posted by: Teresa Lo [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 12:47 PM [link]

bill what do you think about the copper equities?.....i never thought we would see copper take off like they have....i think it has to pull back but i'm not sure the copper price is priced into the equities...what do you think?

Posted by: Bullring [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 12:51 PM [link]

MarkM... you were pretty quick to reduce into the miners as they heated up... what do you think now?

Based on sentiment I would have thought we would have headed much lower, perhaps to the 50 dma on GLD. In most cases over the last few years this would have been seen. However in a BIG year such as 2003, there was barely a pause as sentiment ramped to these levels.

Simmons indicator working well... TIE, NL

Coal- my only exposure is JRCC which I have recently added to. My preference is driven by form 4's, analyst favor other players in the group.

long JRCC, NL, TIE

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 1:05 PM [link]

Hey Teresa! Long time no post. My post to yours ratio is like 500:1. My post to your knowledge is probably the inverse. :)

Good point but where do you get in on a chart like NUE? Just close your eyes?

On coal ACI, BTU, CNX and the infamous JRCC were what stockman and I were discussing. I like CNX. I got hammered out of my position in ACI when it dove by 11%. Don't remind me.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 1:06 PM [link]

stockman-

What I think is that I am an idiot. I have about a 1/3 position on right now. I am biding my time waiting for an entry/rentry point.

The action is a bit frothy but that's what happens when the momentum players come in. The old rules don't apply. Maybe this will float top channel for 4 months at a time like NUE.

I just watch the miners for tells. I noted in this blog they were nervous the other day. Then WHAM! When they start firming while gold is acting hinky then you and I have discussed what to do. I usually send out a Public Service Announcement like I did on 3/10. I ignored the last one. I just couldn't bring myself to BELIEVE it. And so I sit here twiddling my thumbs.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 1:20 PM [link]

" The surge in commodity prices is being reinforced by rising speculation, but the fundamentals are still supportive."

http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/index.asp

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 1:23 PM [link]

Anyone interested in studies of form 4 activity and stock performance I'd recommend Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/customer-reviews/0262692341/ref=cm_cr_dp_pt/104-6640759-6763168?%5Fencoding=UTF8&n=283155&s=books

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 1:33 PM [link]

Noticed lots of TV KingCoal infomercials on how clean it is (if you buy enough credits) as well as USA's abundant supply; this alone should give it a bump.

Further, along with this pricing popularity comes the reopening of old mines and disaster events like earlier this year.

BTW, since Bill mentioned CNX last week it has gained 8.16%

I have no position in CNX.

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 1:34 PM [link]

MarkM,

Taking Bill's advice, my stops on GFI got taken out yesterday. It got really scary when gold went up by over $20. I'm being "killed" today by the other edge of the sword, but can't complain with 15% in only few weeks. :)

Got back into some miners today that had favorible RSI, and were suggested by Bill today to be solid juniors/mid-tiers. A couple didn't go up with the rest during the $600-650 run, and hopefully will not get hammered in case gold does correct again.

Posted by: Dave [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 1:43 PM [link]

MarkM:

Now you know why the DIP buying yesterday was so traumatic for me after making the decision to hold on to GFI and in the process notice my deodorant failed.
Long GFI
PS Sword cuts have healed completely!!!

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 2:27 PM [link]

C Note-

Let me know if your knives are painted green or red EOD. Ratio deteriorating more.

Markets have finally noticed that $75bbl oil is um, NOT GOOD. Puking up today's gains and then some.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 2:41 PM [link]

I have to tell you guys that in case anyone is thinking our host had pre-packed the Crystal Ball for the Bahamas, that a little birdie flew in my window late last Friday afternoon and whispered into my ear: "Psst. Cara says, "Watch out for gold on Monday. This weekend should be VERY good for it."" We all know what happenned next, right? So if anyone out there is paying attention to my ramblings, I think your time would be better served poring over Bill's writings. (Takes off cap and bows to the north.)

I'm going to shut it down now. Everyone have a good weekend.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 21, 2006 3:12 PM [link]