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April 10, 2006
The exogenous concept replayed, Mon., Apr. 10, 2006, 11:50 AM
The present ruckus over Iran is a concept known by traders as an exogenous event, albeit a continuing one. The consequences in the capital markets are much less sustainable than if the cause was linked directly to corporate or industry fundamental or quantitative factors or price technicals or macro-economic factors.
According to Wiki, "exogenous" comes from the Greek words "exo" and "gen", meaning "outside" and "production" and refers to an action generated from outside the system. I have written about this in the past.
This morning "MarkM" commented that "miners are not liking this rarified air. Need to improve relative performance or that has been a reversal signal; Gold up, HUI and XAU down (10:50am). If gold decides to correct before decisively crosssing $600 (I would be surprised), I am looking at $575 area as first line of resistance. 50dma and 200dma are quite some ways away though. $620 looks to be target here."
First, I ran an overlay of the Toronto Stock Exchange Goldminer index (XGD) (in blue in the chart below) against the GLD ETF this morning. The goldminer stocks opened comparatively stronger, but then, as MarkM points out, have been underperforming the spot gold price.

I believe this picture is showing that traders will trade Gold in the short term based on exogenous events more so than they are inclined to trade goldminer stocks that way.
That simply means that traders are not yet believers that, in the present circumstances, the U.S. Administration concern over Iran's presumed weaponization of its nuclear program is anything more than sabre-rattling.
With respect to the goldminer stocks, I believe traders are more interested in the $USD strength, and rising labor rates and energy costs of the gold producers.
Tomorrow that might change, but for now, I think gold bullion traders are looking at Iran, which is an exogenous event, and goldminer traders are looking at historical pricing models.
btw, James OShaunghnessy of Bear Stearns was just explaining a Quantitative measure he uses, which is Price to Sales. This is not a Technical measure, like Relative Strength Index. This is a query I receive frequently, but you all should be aware that "technical" is different from "quantitative".
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 10, 2006 11:50:13 AM | Category: Goldminer Producers
Discourse
Bill-
I also think the miners are taking their cue from the general markets as well. There is a correlation (R-squared) but not a real strong one, with the SP500 and a better one with oil. Here though, I sense some wariness about this market's direction presently. Now if everyone puts on a Happy Face and takes this thing back up until the May Fed meeting then I think gold advances will be accompanied by miner strength. Here not.
Posted by: MarkM
at
April 10, 2006 1:46 PM [link]
Yeah...who is that up there...he's a lot more attractive. Bill must have hired some model to bring in more women readers. I hope your ploy works Bill. lol.
Best,
LB
Posted by: LB
at
April 10, 2006 1:47 PM [link]
Bill-
Silver looks like it is going into blow-off stage here. Chart is getting vertical. WAY above 50 dma and 200dma and recent support. This could be exciting to watch. What goes up.... Unfortunately, it could take gold down with it, for a while at least.
Posted by: MarkM
at
April 10, 2006 5:27 PM [link]

Who's the new guy on the top of the page?
Posted by: Andy
at
April 10, 2006 12:21 PM [link]