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April 16, 2006
The BC 100 Explained, Sun., Apr. 16, 2006, 11:45 AM
The Cara Global Best 100 Companies list is a focus list of good quality companies that occasionally become available in the market at attractive prices. Since I cannot watch all the companies in all the markets all the time, I decided to cut my watch list to 100 that have over the long-term, and presently, displayed outstanding operating performance, financial soundness, and capable management.
For operating performance, I use measures like Return on Equity (ROE), Gross Profit Margin, and EBITDA margin.
For financial soundness, I like to look at credit strength measured by Altman's Z score simply because these are all fairly stable companies, and I just want to see how the interest rate cycle might affect their operating profitability.
For capable management, I want to never see the leaders hanging with the CNBC Squawk Box crowd. There is just a line-up of dead-and-buried CEO's who played like General Custer on that show.
For starters, how about Boeing's Harry Stonecipher, or Tyco's Dennis Kozlowski, or Krispy Krème's Scott Livengood, or the first coming of AT&T's Michael Armstrong, or the Gary Winnock guy from Global Crossing, and on and on.
I look for the hardened entrepreneur who just avoids these fluff interviews -- self-made people like Oracle's Larry Ellison, or Newmont's Pierre Lassonde, or Barrick's Peter Munk.
And there are the professional manager-leader types too. Like Boeing's James McNerney from 3M. I almost dropped 3M from my list and added Boeing when McNerney moved over.
And I may joke that GE's Jeff Immelt can see sun on a rainy day, but he's an improvement on the former boss Jack Welch, who had everybody fooled with his overstated insurance group earnings.
Moreover, as much as I knock Pfizer's Hank McKinnell for the time he puts into the Business Roundtable, he has recently moved staffers Karen Katen, Jeff Kindler, and David Shedlarz into vice-chairs, thereby ensuring smooth executive transition when he retires in 2008.
I have always liked the expression "There are horses for courses" when applied to capital markets. And, in the same vein, there are some terrific jockeys (CEO's) for the horses.
Today, the racetrack is a little muddy. Most of my list of 100 companies has had a good long run and is in need of a breather. A few still have enough juice to run in brief spurts, but and more and more of them are retiring to the barn.
I'll let you figure that out. Today I'm just going to provide the list of 100 as well as some stock data and a few interactive links to more info.
The biggest issue, I believe, facing the readers who I built this list for is their fear of failure when making trading decisions.
They buy and sell too late, if at all. Most even prefer to have others make the most important decisions of their lives. These are mistakes.
If you keep it simple, trading can be rather easy.
So, my initial plan was to wait for a market crash, and then publish this list of 100 and urge my readers to jump in with both feet. I was even holding off my portfolio/trades section on the top nav bar of this site to plug in real trades so you could jump aggressively into the action with me.
Alas, the 2002-2006 bull market has gone on a little longer than I had surmised. Timing the market is not always a snap, you'll see, even for experts.
But after weighing the issue of ‘publish or hold back longer', I decided to publish now.
I was also holding off for purely defensive reasons. As soon as some of you see this list, you are likely to say, "But the PE of that one is 80" or "Many of these have already doubled or tripled in the past two years" and so on.
And you will note that even with a positive year, 25 pct of the list is down in price on the year, so you'll be wondering why I would venture to call these companies high quality.
Bear with me. I have some explaining to do.
As to the losers, Dell Inc. is perhaps the world's most successful production process company of the past 50 years, but in the past 12 months, DELL is the absolute worst price performer in my list " down -20.5 pct.
But remember, there are business cycles (i.e., courses for horses) and Dell's cycle will not likely return until Microsoft delivers its new operating system, and Dell customers decide to upgrade.
The number two absolute worst price performer on my list is HOV, and TOL is the 5th worst. But, Hovnanian and Tol Brothers were rightly championed in the media because of their outstanding quality as well as stock price performance up til last summer.
Do you recall last summer, when I wrote words like: "A year from now, CNBC will regret interviewing these bobblehead realtors; this is a fraud against traders"? You see; there was a massive distribution of real estate related securities at the time.
In any event I told readers not to fall for the scam. HOV is down -21.6 pct and -10.3 pct in the past 3 and 6 months. TOL is down -13.3 pct and -12.7 pct too.
Do you recall me saying "Sold to you!" when it came to Intel? Well, INTC is the 7th worst performer " down -16.3 pct over the 6 months I have been shouting "Chip and dip".
And, how about those chemical companies Lyondell and Dow? You know I like them. They just happen to be the 4th and 8th worst performers for the past 12 months. The ‘why' is simple: (i) First they get hammered by high crude oil (raw material) costs; (ii) Then the economy happens not to be as hot as sound as the Administration declares because there is no pricing power; (iii) Finally, there are operations problems due to hurricane damage.
Then you have a ‘dirty laundry' trial involving the former executives of Cendant (Walter Forbes), and CD turns out to be the 3rd worst loser on the year, down -18.7 pct.
And to round out the top 8 performance losers this year, there is Johnson & Johnson, which lost the important Guidant acquisition as well as facing quite a revenue downturn for some of its pharma products.
But those who have read Ecclesiastes 3 know that life is a cycle. We have our ups and downs. Every one of us has periods of downers at times. In just three weeks this past year, I lost my mother, father and father-in-law. But I can look forward, like you, and like these Global Best 100 companies.
Yes, even taking in the huge losses of 25 of the 100 this year, the other stocks did much better than average. In total, these 100 had a price gain averaging +30.3 pct and an average dividend yield of 1.61 pct.
So, what's wrong with a +32 pct gain across the board? Of course, there is nothing wrong with that.
The S&P 500 gained just +9.8 pct, the Nasdaq +17.8 pct and the Dow 30 +7.1 pct.
So even when I was urging you to hold the winners (oils and metals) and avoid the losers, at the right times during the year, the whole list more than tripled the institutional investor standard yardstick, which is the S&P 500.
Admittedly, without my adding #35 Whole Foods Market (WFMI) or #14 NetEase.com (NTES) in the second half of the year, I may not have done as well, but the ones they replaced were winners too, being acquired at the top.
Having said all the above, let's start over.
The Cara 100 is not about what happened in the market last year, this or next. It's about assembling a Watch List of well managed, financially strong companies. An ocean tide floods and then ebbs, which takes stock prices higher then lower in cycles. Depending on the construction of the boats, some will trend better or worse than others. Depending on their location, some will move counter-cyclically to the majority.
Here is my list; have at it.
Please feel free to poke holes, make comments as you like. This is a learning exercise for everybody.
In the next week or two, I intend to write a little more about my biases. A couple pop out at you right out, including ATI from Canada, but then you know I'm Canadian eh? How about Teekay LNG Partners L.P.? I chose that one because I like the tax benefits of Bahamas, and I like TK management. Their other, larger, transport shipping venture (NYSE: TK) has more competition though, and LNG is just coming into vogue.
Also, I could have picked Google (NDQ: GOOG), but I went with younger, smarter, more dynamic managers and the China business model offered by NetEase (NDQ: NTES). Sure, GOOG has a 3-year Rev growth rate of 138 pct vs 93 pct, but the laws of size and market saturation will surely catch up to Google before NetEase. Besides, I love NetEase's gross profit margin and EBITDA margin (86 pct and 51 pct) vs that of Google's (63 and 39). And, I'm still hung up on GOOG's PE of 80 vs a comparable 29 for NTES (19 going forward).
But here's the rub: Shame on these Google guys for how they act. The founders insulted me (and maybe you) when they brought a wheelbarrow of manure to the pre-IPO marketplace when they talked about establishing the world's largest altruistic foundation " let them do it like Bill Gates before putting it into our face " and they talk about scanning every book in every library without having the mega-trillions of dollars in reserve to pay for copyrights. I don't respect these guys enough to put them on the Cara 100 list.
You see; I'm a trader " I don't trade on b.s.
I'd like to see them stick to their knitting and knock off Microsoft from its perch. Then, they'd get my respect! In the back of my mind, however is the knowledge that one proprietary technology can carry you only so far in this day and age.
As to the Cara 100, it is based on a cross section of the S&P Global Industry Classification System. There are 10 from sector 10 (Energy), 12 from sector 15 (Basic materials), 10 from sector 20 (Industrials), 19 from sector 25 (Discretionary spending), 6 from sector 30 (Staple spending), 7 from sector 35 (Healthcare), 13 from sector 40 (Financials), 18 from sector 45 (Technology), 4 from sector 50 (Telco services) and 1 from sector 55 (Utilities).
GICS a better system than the Dow Jones classification system but there are issues. One of them is that the sectors should be re-numbered. In fact, the normal sector rotation is 55, 50, 40, 35, 30, 25, 45, 20, 15, and 10, and precious metals should be in a separate sector at the end.
Other issues: Is alcoholic beverages a "staple" or a "discretionary" purchase? Is shopping at Wal-Mart something you want to do or have to do? Is Dell a tech or a manufacturing company? Is eBay a retailer or a tech?
But let's not get caught in semantics. GICS is what it is, and we deal with it.
So without further ado, here is the list " sorted (i) by sector, and (ii) by ticker symbol, and then some data. Later I'll return with more data and after that (Monday and later) some discussion.
GICS 10 CNOOC Limited (ADR) (CEO) (CEO) FinancialsGICS 10 ChevronTexaco Corp (CVX) (CVX) Financials
GICS 10 EnCana Corp (ECA) (ECA) Financials
GICS 10 Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) (IMO) Financials
GICS 10 Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR) (PBR) Financials
GICS 10 PetroChina Co (PTR) (PTR) Financials
GICS 10 Statoil ASA (ADR) (STO) (STO) Financials
GICS 10 Suncor Energy Inc (SU) (SU) Financials
GICS 10 TOTAL S.A. (ADR) (TOT) (TOT) Financials
GICS 10 Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) (XOM) Financials (Value Line: XOM)
GICS 15 Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) (ABX) Financials
GICS 15 Aluminum Corp of China (ACH) (ACH) Financials
GICS 15 BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP) (BHP) Financials
GICS 15 Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) (DOW) Financials
GICS 15 Goldcorp Inc. (GG) (GG) Financials
GICS 15 Gerdau S.A. (GGB) (GGB) Financials
GICS 15 Lyondell Chemical Co. (LYO) (LYO) Financials
GICS 15 Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) (NEM) Financials
GICS 15 Nucor Corp. (NUE) (NUE) Financials
GICS 15 Phelps Dodge Corp. (PD) (PD) Financials
GICS 15 Companhia Vale Do Rio (RIO) (RIO) Financials
GICS 15 Votorantim Celulose (VCP) (VCP) Financials
GICS 20 American Standard Co. (ASD) (ASD) Financials
GICS 20 C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) (CHRW) Financials
GICS 20 Embraer-Empresa Brasil (ERJ) (ERJ) Financials
GICS 20 General Electric Co. (GE) (GE) Financials (Value Line: GE)
GICS 20 Moody's Corp. (MCO) (MCO) Financials
GICS 20 3M Company (MMM) (MMM) Financials (Value Line: MMM)
GICS 20 Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) (PAYX) Financials
GICS 20 Stanley Works (SWK) (SWK) Financials
GICS 20 Teekay LNG Partners L.P. (TGP) (TGP) Financials
GICS 20 United Technologies (UTX) (UTX) Financials (Value Line: UTX)
GICS 25 Activision, Inc. (ATVI) (ATVI) Financials
GICS 25 Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) (BBBY) Financials
GICS 25 Brunswick Corp. (BC) (BC) Financials
GICS 25 Black & Decker Corp. (BDK) (BDK) Financials
GICS 25 Carnival Corp. (CCL) (CCL) Financials
GICS 25 Cendant Corp. (CD) (CD) Financials
GICS 25 Disney Co. (DIS) (DIS) Financials (Value Line: DIS)
GICS 25 eBay Inc. (EBAY) (EBAY) Financials
GICS 25 Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) (ERTS) Financials
GICS 25 GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligent (GOL) (GOL) Financials
GICS 25 Home Depot, Inc. (HD) (HD) Financials (Value Line: HD)
GICS 25 Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) (HOV) Financials
GICS 25 J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP) (JCP) Financials
GICS 25 Kohl's Corporation (KSS) (KSS) Financials
GICS 25 NIKE, Inc. (NKE) (NKE) Financials
GICS 25 Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) (SBUX) Financials
GICS 25 Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) (TM) Financials
GICS 25 Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) (TOL) Financials
GICS 25 Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) (WHR) Financials
GICS 30 Companhia de Bebidas (ABV) (ABV) Financials
GICS 30 Diageo plc (ADR) (DEO) (DEO) Financials
GICS 30 Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) (PG) Financials (Value Line: PG)
GICS 30 Walgreen Company (WAG) (WAG) Financials
GICS 30 Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI) (WFMI) Financials
GICS 30 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) (WMT) Financials
GICS 35 Aetna Inc. (AET) (AET) Financials
GICS 35 Biomet, Inc. (BMET) (BMET) Financials
GICS 35 Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) (BMY) Financials
GICS 35 GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) (GSK) (GSK) Financials
GICS 35 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) (JNJ) Financials (Value Line: JNJ)
GICS 35 Pfizer Inc. (PFE) (PFE) Financials (Value Line: PFE)
GICS 35 UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) (UNH) Financials
GICS 40 Banco Bradesco S.A. (ADR) (BBD) (BBD) Financials
GICS 40 Citigroup Inc. (C) (C) Financials (Value Line: C)
GICS 40 Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (DB) (DB) Financials
GICS 40 E*Trade Financial Corp. (ET) (ET) Financials
GICS 40 Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) (FITB) Financials
GICS 40 Golden West Financial (GDW) (GDW) Financials
GICS 40 Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) (GS) Financials
GICS 40 HSBC Holdings plc (ADR) (HBC) (HBC) Financials
GICS 40 Kookmin Bank (ADR) (KB) (KB) Financials
GICS 40 Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEH) (LEH) Financials
GICS 40 Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC) (MFC) Financials
GICS 40 Royal Bank of Canada (USA) (RY) (RY) Financials
GICS 40 Westpac Banking Corp. (WBK) (WBK) Financials
GICS 45 Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) (ADBE) Financials
GICS 45 Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) (ADSK) Financials
GICS 45 Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) (AMAT) Financials
GICS 45 ATI Technologies Inc. (USA) (ATYT) (ATYT) Financials
GICS 45 Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) (CSCO) Financials
GICS 45 Cognizant Technology (CTSH) (CTSH) Financials
GICS 45 Dell Inc. (DELL) (DELL) Financials
GICS 45 Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) (GRMN) Financials
GICS 45 Infosys Technologies Ltd (INFY) (INFY) Financials
GICS 45 Intel Corp. (INTC) (INTC) Financials
GICS 45 Linear Technology Corp. (LLTC) (LLTC) Financials
GICS 45 Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) (MXIM) Financials
GICS 45 NetEase.com (ADR) (NTES) (NTES) Financials
GICS 45 Oracle Corp. (ORCL) (ORCL) Financials
GICS 45 Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM) (QCOM) Financials
GICS 45 Research In Motion Ltd. (USA) (RIMM) (RIMM) Financials
GICS 45 SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) (SNDK) Financials
GICS 45 Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) (YHOO) Financials
GICS 50 China Telecom Corp. (CHA) (CHA) Financials
GICS 50 China Mobile (Hong Kong) (CHL) (CHL) Financials
GICS 50 Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (ADR) (MBT) (MBT) Financials
GICS 50 Vimpel-Communications (ADR) (VIP) (VIP) Financials
GICS 55 Exelon Corp. (EXC) (EXC) Financials
The following table will be too small for many to read, but I'll get into the detail later. All I did was take the list above and published some of the data you will find in the links.
Here is the operating data for each company as organized for me by Levi Bauer. Thanks Levi.
The 3-yr RevGro is actually the annualized growth rate of Revenue for the past 3 years. And the GrProfMgn is the Gross Profit Margin. This is not a calculation used for banks because it relates to the percentage of a company's revenue left over after substracting the cost of goods or services produced and sold.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 16, 2006 11:45:19 AM | Category: Cara Global 100 Best Companies
Discourse
Christmas, Easter, Thanksgivin and New Year's. MarkM has a BIG smile on his face. Can't wait to read it, digest it and debate it.
Posted by: MarkM
at
April 16, 2006 4:01 PM [link]
Bill
When I mentioned that I wanted to see more on the BC 100 I had in mind a detailed description of the methodology and thought process you used in selecting a company for inclusion. Never did I think you would provide that and so much more.
You have given more than anyone has a right to expect and more than one should ever hope for.
Thank you
Steven
Bill
I found your blog extremely useful and read it everyday. Regarding your global 100 list, I agree with most of it, except for PFE. I am curious why you choose PFE. Personally, I consider its CEO one of the worst CEO. He is the best example of what I called "empire builder/value destroyer". Over the last decade, he made several big acquisitions, and along the way destroyed more than 100 billion dollars shareholder value. Pfizer is a fantanstic business, if only it had a mediocre manager who left it along. I know a lot of fund managers love Pfizer, which has a great balance sheet, good operating record, but unless a new CEO takes over, I would never consider Pfizer. Your thoughts?
Posted by: yc32
at
April 17, 2006 2:07 PM [link]
Absolute KILLER INFORMATION. I for one read this blog every day. I have been trying for quite some time to come to a watch list of manageable size of companies that have potential. Bill... your global 100 list is just what I need. THANKS! THANKS! THANKS!!!
Bill
Posted by: AlaBill
at
April 17, 2006 4:19 PM [link]
hey Bill - thank you immensely for the list - i've been tracking a portion of it for some time now, building as you mention new names. Whatever happened to 2 you've mentioned were on your list NILSY.PK and LUKOY.PK. - Is liquidity an issue with these? - sergio
Posted by: sergio
at
April 18, 2006 12:13 AM [link]
Bill,
This is a long awaited event for many who have been following your blog, including myself. I question your timing here though. This is either a capitulation on your part, or more of what I expect from shrewd salesmen: less than timely buzz. How long did you work on the sell side, Dream Merchant? That is where the real cheesecake is, isn't it?
You are the trader wizard for sure. ** tips hat with respect **
-Jon
Bill, thank you for the clarification of my question. I have a suggestion - maybe you can post the 100 list as one of your tabs atop the page for easy reference. - sergio
Posted by: sergio
at
April 19, 2006 12:16 PM [link]

This is better than the Easter Bunny's 'Golden' Egg!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: C.Note
at
April 16, 2006 2:39 PM [link]