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April 3, 2006

Technical indicators at work, Mon., Apr. 3, 2006, 11:17 AM

As you know, my favorite technical indicators are RSI and MACD. They were signalling the breakout last Wed and the top earlier this morning. Day traders watch these things.

The Dow (in black), Nasdaq (in blue) are way underperforming the TSX Goldminers (in green).


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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 3, 2006 11:17:29 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market , Trader Tools , Trend & Cycle Phases

Discourse

Bill, the RSI and MACD you plotted were for the Dow. Is that what you intended?

Posted by: ERPguy [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 3, 2006 12:17 PM [link]

And the Dow gave back 2/3rds of its gains after that frothy start. Up only 40 after being up nearly 130.

I have no idea what traders are thinking here. Rates are on the rise. Equity alternatives look better and better (~5% at no risk). Gold and oil are signalling inflation. Future rate increases necessary to keep $USD tanking vis a vis rising rates in EUR and JPN. Gotta trade I guess to pay for Junior's braces.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 3, 2006 4:11 PM [link]

I've seen enough. Am going short SPX at 1305 with a stop of 1312 close, or on a break of 1292. Will short COMP on a break of 2330 with a stop of a close above 2360. If stopped out will look for a place to re-short. With VIX at these levels, long dated put purchased should be considered for any stock you own which have had huge upside moves in the past few months-steels,and minerals have had big runs and may be candidates to lock in profits. I have no postition in those stocks and will look to short them IF the action looks like the parabolic run is exhausted. No evidence the move in those stocks has completed yet. Might be instructive to look at the chart of AAPL to see how an institutional favorite can quickly fall out of favor with seemingly great fundamentals and a rosy outlook. NUE is sporting a 5 week RSI of 93 and a 5 month RSI of 95- just a matter of time before an ugly reversal sets in and perhaps an intermediate or more important top.

Posted by: optionoracle [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 3, 2006 4:29 PM [link]

optionoracle-

Good luck shorting this pig.

And what do you think of the precious metals shares here, fine sir? I have most of my core but this action has me shaking my head.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 3, 2006 5:04 PM [link]