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April 24, 2006

Red sky this morning, Mon., Apr. 24, 2006, 5:35 AM

Regarding a falling $USD, the warning has long and often been issued here. When in the early morning I look to the Far East and see red, like the good sailor I am, I take it as a warning.


From Wikiquote: "Red sky at night, sailors delight. Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning. A red sky occurs primarily at sunrise or sunset, when the sun's rays are passing through the greatest thickness of atmosphere. In weather lore, morning red skies are a good indicator of coming rain, evening red skies usually indicate clearing conditions."

This morning, the USD is particularly weak against the Yen, which has hurt the big Japanese exporters like Toyota Motor, sending the Nikkei 225 Index to a stunning loss of -2.81 pct. The South Korean Seoul Composite Index was down -1.40 pct, and the Hong Kong Heng Seng Index down -1.20 pct today, for the same reason.

And this is one reason why central bankers of the exporting nations like to buy U.S. debt. It supports the $USD, which in turn makes it so much easier for manufacturing exporters in their countries to sell into the U.S. But, the fly in the ointment is that holding declining investments is quite costly. So what is gained on one hand is usually, over time, lost on the other.

As the $USD declines, the price of precious metals will rise. So, as a hedge against a falling $USD, maybe these foreign bankers are now buying precious metals.


003x011.gif


I always check the morning weather before sailing. Today was a red sky due to a weak $USD, so I expect to see a good price for my precious metals.

And sure enough, at 5:30am ET, I see spot gold up +1.10 to 632.40, silver up +0.05 to 13.10, platinum up +5 to 1123, and palladium up +3 to 359.


003x001.jpgPhoto credit: Denni Windrim


I think I'll stay in a safe harbor today.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 24, 2006 05:35:02 AM | Category: Bullion , Forex

Discourse

Bill-

If intervention is going to be the course, oil really needs to come off here. This is becoming a political liability for the Republicans. If oil is beaten down, then gold should come off too.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 24, 2006 8:10 AM [link]

All-

Here, according to Bloomberg today, is the correlation coefficient for gold and oil this year. This is greater than last year, which was in the high 60s I believe.

"The correlation coefficient between the precious metal and oil is 0.87 so far this year. A correlation coefficient of 1 mean they move in lock-step while -1 mean they move in opposite directions."

This is very important to traders. See my note above.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 24, 2006 10:16 AM [link]