Hey Bill, thanks for all the great info, could you tell me if it is a resonable way to be involved in the gold sector through the use of mutual funds and would a ten to fifteen percent weighing of a portfolio would be fine, or perhaps greater

tgif-

Not that he isn't a nice guy, but Bill doesn't answer questions about anyone's portfolio. He's not registered right now for one and he doesn't have a client relationship with readers. HE DOES GIVE LOTS OF CLUES IF YOU ARE WILLING TO WORK AND WADE THROUGH ALL THE MATERIAL HERE.

Folks, if you are looking for support there isn't any on these charts til 571. However, the psychological level of 600 will act as SOME cushion, and I kinda expect Fibonnaci retracement levels may provide some clues. But ever since we crossed into blue sky, it got kinda iffy on the downside as well. HANG IN ACCORDING TO YOUR PLANS.

6 month FIBs:

http://tinyurl.com/lt9hm

1 Year FIB: (from double bottom last July):

http://tinyurl.com/mehb2

JB-

Thanks for the charts. Unless this is an intermediate term correction, I was thinking from March bottoms to the top of this move.

Interesting. Last time when gold broke above $475, it hit $540 and then crashed back to $500s(then it goes higher)... Deja vu.
The only thing different will probably be how I trade this one. I missed the last move from $500 to $570. As for gold now...

Mark,

On the six month chart, we see that from 590 to 570 there's lots of congestion. Interestingly, there's no price where FIBs overlap. Usually you see a price where two or more FIB progressions will overlap, providing strong support. What I see on the six month chart, is a twenty to twenty-five dollar ZONE of support.

That's not a knife it's a sword I've been trying to catch... where is the first aid kid.

JB-

Okay, I'll look. I had $590 mentally pegged but w/o any support for it. I am having a hard time believing we get to 571 unless some extended period of weakness sets in and I don't see that happening fundamentally. So I think short and sharp here. If oil came off to trend lines that would be a different matter.

Hu was that masked man?

Didja know the Lone Ranger owned a silver mine?

JB-

Using $GOLD (EOD) with 534 as recent corrective low and 642 as the contract high, I have 600 as the first retracement (38.2%), 588 as the 50% retracement and 575 as 61.8%. How does that work for you?

I see gold selling off after NY close. And how about the silver smash-up?

Someone told me today that Peter Grandich put out a bear call on copper today. That joins the datapoints Seamus, Bill and I have been discussing.

Mark,

You are correct, and another reason why the $534 price should be used as a baseline, is how this price was twice a price ceiling back in December. So for near term support, indeed $600 has both the short term FIB numbers going for it, but a psychological support as well.

The point I was making with the six month chart, is to see if one can find a price that was strong support exists due to FIB overlaps. This isn't the case. Instead we find a price zone of support -ten dollars under $600- that should slow down the rate of a steeply falling price, should the price continue to fall as fast as it rose.

$600 may give us nothing more than a bounce, but around $590 would should see consolidation on further any decline from here.

I also agree with your take on oil giving us support as well. Oil and Natgas are heading up, due to seasonality and supply/demand factors. Given all this, I can't see too much downside for $gold in the short term, but one never knows what the FED might have of it's sleeve along with it's partner in crime, The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).

JB-

I will buy gold at those levels and I will buy a 1/2 stake in miners on the "tell". Once miners separate from initial purchase by 6-7% I will fill out my miner holdings.