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April 24, 2006
More vitriol for the Fed's actions this week, Mon., Apr. 24, 2006, 7:36 PM
A reader asked me what I really feel about this Fed, and so I told him. Then I thought, why not share it. We're all friends, right?
"Bill, Do you think they increased the margin req'ts solely to flush out speculators from that market? Would seem the rational thing to do if you fear inflation inspired by higher commodity prices. Probably the only thing you could do...Seeing that the move worked (temporarily) how long until they look to do similiar thing in the highly political crude oil market? Such a move would be a white flag of surrender IMO -- how would you interpret it?
Great blog, I check it 10-15 times a day!
Ken"
I replied:
KCB: Was too busy today to blog much.
Margin requirement changes are needed. I understand that as I was in the business at a CEO level.
My point could be better explained, I guess, which is that the Fed is reacting. In fact over-reacting. When they saw three days of a plummeting USD, that wasn't speculation. That was other central bankers and big bank trading floors (Goldman, Merrill etc) doing it.
If the Fed, the commercial banks and the Exchanges wanted to be fair to people, they could say, here is what is happening, here is why we are concerned, here is what we are going to do about it, and now you have 30 days to put your affairs in order.
What goes on today is absolute and total garbage. These people are bullies, and liars. It is no wonder why the Administration and the Fed get so little respect today. What are they doing to earn it?
I am not going to be a 'homer' here, but Canadians do have (now) a Prime Minister and a Minister of Finance and a Bank of Canada governor who I think can be respected for their actions. (Time will tell.)
As I say, the Fed is not bigger than the market. The Administration is nothing more than a handful of people. We the owners of capital give them too much respect as it is.
We do that because we know the importance of the job. But sometimes people in high places take actions that are disrespectful of the people who put them there.
First of all, we don't need a Fed. The Administration could do the job. They could then stand or fall on their performance too.
A recent Administration and Fed head had lots of detractors, and rightly so, but nothing they did was remotely as serious as the mistakes being made today.
Could you imagine Bob Rubin doing what the "Snow"man has done? Or Greenspan ever trying to jerk our chain like Bernanke has a couple times in what a month on the job?
I think if the Dem's win the White House next time (Anybody But Hillary), we could even see Bob Rubin in as Fed head. And that would be enough for me to vote Blue -- if I had a vote. :-)
Cordially, /Bill
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 24, 2006 07:36:05 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
sorry about the lack of proof reading.
I ment to say that GATA would love to prove that the fed has control of changing margin requirements, but with the fast rise in silver prices over the last few weeks one could only assume that the change was due to the increased risk in the portfolio of contracts.
Posted by: Andy
at
April 24, 2006 10:02 PM [link]
Bill-
If the rise in margins has the same effect on copper as it has on silver, etc we should all short PD today at it's highest RSI for a quick trade. Just a thought.
OT, anyone see the interview with the Canaccord head of research yesterday on ROB TV? Is positioned nearly 62% in areas that will benefit if the markets tank. Reverse participation notes (25%), cash (17%), gold (20%). Thinks the SP500 has as much as a 20% dip coming this year. Thinks earnings season will be flat and then the decline begins. Hmmm. Bill, you know those guys, right?
Posted by: MarkM
at
April 25, 2006 6:04 AM [link]
Bill
Does the fed have a say in setting margin requirements?
I don't trade futures but did some reading after the silver whipsaw. I am sure that the regulators have minimum levels that the margins can be at but the exchanges say they use SPAN (stardard portfolio analysis of risk) which is calculated based on all of the contracts in the portfolio of a market like silver. Since this information is not made public we can not really say what caused the change.
Although it would be great for GATA to be able to prove with the recent rise in silver in a relatively short period of time it would not be hard to assume many participants could have been taking to much risk on their positions long or short.
Here is a link On (SPAN)
http://www.cme.com/clearing/rmspan/span/index.htm
I agree with you that the way they change margins seems to be disruptive to the market not helpfull because it harms all participants not just the ones that are taking risky leveraged positions.
Also there is a new release today from NYMEX on copper futures. Margins up 50%
http://www.nymex.com/press_releas.aspx?id=pr20060424a
Andrew
Posted by: Andy
at
April 24, 2006 9:20 PM [link]