The ISM factory data published this morning shows some unexpected weakness in the U.S. economy, which traders interpret as a sign that the Fed will postpone further rate hikes. But as you know the data was not published until 10:00am ET, so how is it that the U.S. broad market indexes starting at 9:30am were on wheels, as were the European markets that opened 5 hours earlier, and the Asia/Pacific markets that closed earlier today?

Were there leaks, or did the marketplace just figure it out in advance? Or could it be that cash is being put into a frothy market during a blow-off final round of speculation?

The $GOLD index is up +$7.60 to $594.30. Spot (cash) is up +$4.90 to $590.10.

So we may be getting on to 625 in giant bounds forward and just a couple baby steps back. Although I stopped chasing the precious metals, this move is good for me, and makes up for the higher prices I am missing in most other sectors of the market.

Yes, the Naz is up +17 and the Dow 30 is up +125 at 10:48am. That happens to be a terrific week in just one hour.

But note that on a comparative basis, the TSX Goldminers index (XGD) (in blue on the chart) is way outperforming the Dow (in black). This is the first day for the 2Q06, so Fund managers are putting new money to work. But, at the end of this quarter, how many are going to be happy?

If you really are bullish on the broad equity market, what you want to see is the Dow relatively outperforming the Goldminers index. So Bulls beware of this market. You might not be happy with the future.