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April 10, 2006

Commodities start higher this morning, Mon., Apr. 10, 2006, 7:15 AM

Gold and Silver spot prices were higher overnight, as shown by the charts at INO.com. And today is the start of the Oil ETF, so this could be an interesting day.

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This weekend I was looking at price data for Crude Oil and Gold going back til year-end 2004. What commodity do you think has rallied the most since then?

If you said Gold you were wrong by a long way. Gold rallied +35.3 pct from 438.40 to 593.30, whereas Crude Oil rallied +55.1 pct from 43.45 to 67.39.

So if Gold is to catch up, it has to rally to 670.

Earnings Season that starts today will play a factor if these commodity prices are going to continue rallying here, or pull back for a few weeks. But the long-term play will not be over for commodities until interest rates rise enough to put the global economy into recession.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 10, 2006 07:15:05 AM | Category: Commodities , Gold

Discourse

Something unusual from overnight:

Everbank reports: The renminbi rose .08 Vs the dollar last night, which is strange given the fact that the Official Policy announced after the peg was dropped last July, was to put a governor on the renminbi of .03 VS the dollar...

Maybe they plan on buying more gold!

It's probably connected to the Chinese visit to Washington around the 20th. Trend continues, reminbi will break 8 soon vs. the dollar.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 10, 2006 9:28 AM [link]

For right now, miners are not liking this rarified air. Need to improve relative performance or that has been a reversal signal.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 10, 2006 10:04 AM [link]

Gold up, HUI and XAU down (10:50am). If gold decides to correct before decisively crosssing $600 (I would be surprised), I am looking at $575 area as first line of resistance. 50dma and 200dma are quite some ways away though. $620 looks to be target here.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 10, 2006 10:54 AM [link]