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April 27, 2006
Ben's ‘Pause' comment is spun, Thurs., Apr. 27, 2006, 10:12 AM
Bernanke admits the Fed is in a bind. He says the data may indicate that more rate hikes are in order BUT. BUT BUT BUT.
Didn't I tell you the Fed has no way out of the corner that the American President, Administration, Congress and consumer has put him in?
Ben knows that further rate hikes will strike a fatal blow against the U.S. housing industry. He needs for it to cool slowly, not crash.
So this morning when you all watched $GOLD plummet, I said, NO NO NO. You don't fool me Mr Market, Mr Fed and Mr Anybody.
I told you all to buy the dip. I hope you did.
This game is only hard to figure out if you think of it as rocket science. It's really child's play.
The only problem is that adults haven't yet figured out that this is a game that is playing them.
$GOLD was down -$12 a few moments ago, and now it's up +$2.
Isn't this fun " once you get to see how the game is played?

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 27, 2006 10:14:51 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
Bernanke and his clan will continue to hit the wires with Greenspenglish-talking in circles. In the meantime, they are flooding the system with liquidity (M3/securities lending) in order to keep the broad market elevated. World CBs are now raising rates pressuring the carry trade which we beleive ends up in a collision course near term. The fed can't afford to stop raising rates as commodities continue to soar. Yes, a major selloff in all asset classes is near.
Bill L
Posted by: bill
at
April 27, 2006 11:13 AM [link]
Bill-
Isn't another interpretation of what is happening with gold here is that it lacks support at this level and so is teetering? It's been moving like this on "news" from one moment to the next. Is the case for gold so strong that one should be a buyer with daily RSI near 70 and the "dips" coming on inter-day volatility? Are you really buying weakness then? Or are you just scalping?
The miners have been flattish to down since the spike move on the 18th. I guess I am waiting for a substantial pullback before committing new money here. If it's at a higher level I am fine with that. However I believe in the power of trendlines, Fibs and TA generally and so I wait for a better signals that support is nearby for an entry.
Posted by: MarkM
at
April 27, 2006 11:17 AM [link]
Mark,
Clearly a game of chicken between the fed and the commodity complex. Do you really think B-52 Ben is one and one-I don't. Commodities will move higher for various reasons but I believe we are setting up for a major downturn which impacts all assets. The herd believes we immediately move to hyperinflation although I don't accept that at all. Fed will try to keep the dollar up near term while baking the speculators in commodities. Today is "Hot commodites day" on bubblevision-top is near.
Bill L
Posted by: bill
at
April 27, 2006 11:47 AM [link]
Bill L-
The "leaks" from Fed members, the margin hikes, China's actions, Bernanke's testimony all tell me that they have their fingers in the dike on this one. The picture is all over the place. I don't believe they know WHAT to do and, even if they did, the Fed has much less control over the economy, money velocity etc than we generally believe.
So I just pay attention to the charts: $USD, $GOLD, banks index. I don't really care if Dow makes nominal new highs. Whoop de doo.
I'm hedged to the max, bought some gold and miners on the last dip in March and will wait and watch.
(I take it you are a pro.)
Posted by: MarkM
at
April 27, 2006 12:03 PM [link]
Silver ETF ready to go tomorrow?
Posted by: JB
at
April 27, 2006 12:39 PM [link]
Mark,
Seems like the blowoff stage to us as all assets (ex bond mkt) move higher. Behind the scenes liquidity, until very recently, seems to be high so the speculators continue to play. Fed (and FCBs) is on a collision course with the real economy not the illusion on wall street so any soft landing thesis is a pipe dream.
Bill L
Posted by: bill
at
April 27, 2006 12:42 PM [link]
C. Note-
Again I am watching the miners perform miserably vis a vis the metal. Ratio CONTINUES to deteriorate whether gold advances or gold declines. Doesn't matter. So my risk/reward needs not being met here.
RGLD bouncing off some support here, that's all.
Posted by: MarkM
at
April 27, 2006 12:58 PM [link]
Wish I'd bought more LYO !!! :)
Posted by: C.Note
at
April 27, 2006 1:18 PM [link]

Bingo!!
Posted by: C.Note
at
April 27, 2006 10:26 AM [link]