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April 5, 2006

A worthwhile 7 minutes with Larry Berman, Wed., Apr. 5, 2006, 3:35 PM

Why not watch the Replay from ROBTV's Jim O'Connell interview today of CIBC chief technical strategist Larry Berman. I like Larry's work. The interview is at ROBTV Replay at 11:15am ET.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 5, 2006 03:36:25 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Well, a couple of weeks ago he said that the TSX was "dead money" for awhile. Now he says it'll outperform.

So now his take is: Gold good, miners great, S&P so-so, Russell 2000 looks good. A couple of weeks cahnges a lot.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 5, 2006 4:29 PM [link]

Mark,

Your comment makes me think back to the OJ Simpson trial, where the Dream Team of defense lawyers put the jury into a mindset that perfection ought to be expected (in that case) from the criminologists.

I don't know Larry Berman. I have written in the 2H05 where he would be interviewed by ROBTV telling us that in his view the broad equity market was in flat out bear mode. He was wrong, so what? None of us are perfect.

What I like about Larry is that he takes a stand. He models the important drivers of the markets, and he gives you his best analysis and projections. I think he does it without spin.

I'll take 1 Larry Berman to 10 Larry Kudlow's any time.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 5, 2006 5:14 PM [link]

“When the facts change, I change my mind – what do you do, sir? - Lord Keynes (Some kind of economist, I think.)

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 5, 2006 6:42 PM [link]

When I change my mind I tell people why I was wrong and why it is now so--what do you do, FRED?

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 5, 2006 6:48 PM [link]

Okay, okay, MarkM must have been having a bad day. Of course, I like Larry Berman too. I find his stuff to be very good. Maybe I just didn't like his message yesterday which appears to be that liquidity ( Oh where oh where has the M3 gone?) will continue propping up these overbought markets. It's finding its way into metals, oils, gold and when people hold their noses, the S&P generally. I just couldn't believe we could/would keep doing this to ourselves. But the tape says we are so MarkM needs to face the facts.

Look at the S&P close. Over 1310. Folks, a couple more like that and that signals a new leg up. RU 2000? Still on wheels. Gold? Expect all future consolidations to be sideways it seems. A couple more days of churning back and forth around 590ish and then its off to 620. Oil? Hey even that inventory report couldn't knock it back from $67bbl. So the range of $59-64 I was expecting is now $60-70, the new oil paradigm.

The pullback isn't coming in nominal terms, it's HERE in terms of Dow:Gold, S&P:Gold and everything else in relation to Gold. Rising rates on the short end and gushing M3 on the back end. The Fed strategy to softly let down the housing market while allowing new bubbles to appear (gold, oil, etc) is in full swing.

EVERYTHING reverts to mean in my world. When will this? I have no idea.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 6, 2006 6:14 AM [link]