U.S. Treasury yields have broken through technical resistance (about 4.65 pct on the 10-year TNX). As with the setting of most new trading ranges, there is likely to be a pull-back soon to test what would be the new support level.

In this process, there will be a point, soon I think, where equities reach a point of no return. Either corporate dividends are raised significantly this quarter or equity prices will fall.

Given the massive credit balloon in the U.S. and in many other countries, a continuation of the rising trend in interest rates, or any pullback in the growth of the global money supply, would slow or halt the economic growth in the USA and possibly lead to a recession. In such a case, there are too many industries from commercial lending banks, to income trusts and REITs, to real estate developers, to oil producers, to retailers, etc, that would suffer immensely.

If, as and when that were to happen, the Bear Market of 2006 would begin. It may have started on Friday at about 2:00pm ET, or maybe not. And the economy may be threatened by flat or inverted yield curve or it may not. But, for sure, the image of a great equity bear is now on the horizon, and will come closer if, as and when treasury yields move higher.

But this week was a strange one as talking heads tried to convince us that Intel and Dell are now irrelevant because laptops have taken over from desktop PC's, and that Google is merely suffering from one-trick pony syndrome in a rapidly maturing advertising market.

And if RIMM had sunk, these TH's would have played the PALM card once again.

Global Market Summary

U.S. Equities : A significant rally at the open Wed goosed the chip stocks and Nasdaq, but alas along came Friday.

International Equities: Japan was down sharply, but Canada enjoyed a good week.

Dow 30: The Dow 30 and S&P 500 were down W/W. This week for the Dow, it was 19 stocks down and 11 up. A week earlier it was 18 down and 12 up.

U.S. Sector ETFs: 6 up and 4 down this week.
10: Energy (XLE): up +0.9 pct W/W based on geopolitical events
15: Basic Materials (XLB): barely up +0.1 pct W/W
20: Industrials (XLI): up +0.2 pct W/W (all of it Friday)
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): +0.1 pct W/W; retailing to the rich
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): down -0.6 pct W/W based on PG (-3.0 pct)
35: Healthcare (IYH): down -0.9 pct W/W
40: Financial (XLF): down -1.1 pct W/W (AIG, AXP and C all down)
45: Technology (SMH chips): best performer, but crushed on Fri.
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): up +0.5 pct W/W, but crushed on Fri.
55: Utilities (XLU): down -0.7 pct W/W (needs bonds & econ up)

Bonds: Strong inflation data was called "benign" and "tame", but traders were not fooled; tough week for bonds

Commodities: Higher this week, with higher inflation data and growth in money supply; and terror on the rise

Oil & Gas: Up on the week to $63.67, but don't know if rally will continue

Gold: Gold up on the week to $565.26, after being crushed on Monday and Friday. Probably more rally to come due to weakness in USD; trading is volatile

Goldminers: The goldminer stocks have had a tough four weeks, but will start to rally if $Gold rises above $575

Forex: USD dropped and the Euro zoomed this week on account of the ECB raising rates and the BoJ talking like they will too.

---

Sector ETF:

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here are the ETF charts for the ten sectors I follow:

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N, but is otherwise unsorted.

For this week, there were 6 ETF's up and 4 down. XLF (Financials) was the big loser, while SMH (Semiconductors) was the winner due to a strange rally at the open on Wed. that fizzled after two hours.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
SMH	37.94	-0.56	-1.45%	2.68%	-1.96%	0.96%	0.05%	-2.54%	4.06%	11.82%
XLE	54.13	0.01	0.02%	0.93%	2.83%	-2.87%	2.71%	5.78%	6.24%	22.05%
IYZ	25.16	-0.13	-0.51%	0.48%	-0.08%	5.49%	9.53%	4.62%	5.94%	6.84%
XLI	32.74	0.08	0.24%	0.24%	1.05%	3.90%	3.51%	3.31%	10.01%	6.23%
XLY	33.48	-0.03	-0.09%	0.09%	-1.03%	0.57%	1.45%	-0.33%	1.30%	-1.41%
XLB	31.74	0.01	0.03%	0.06%	0.19%	1.21%	2.65%	5.38%	15.42%	2.32%
XLP	23.55	0.03	0.13%	-0.55%	-0.76%	0.73%	0.47%	0.08%	2.04%	-0.25%
XLU	32.30	-0.16	-0.49%	-0.71%	0.91%	1.51%	0.94%	2.31%	-2.12%	10.43%
IYH	64.29	-0.33	-0.51%	-0.94%	-0.97%	0.69%	1.04%	3.41%	2.41%	8.67%
XLF	32.52	-0.08	-0.25%	-1.12%	-0.12%	2.55%	0.99%	1.28%	10.27%	8.94%

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

The best advice for the XLE (energy sector) is to continue selling into rallies as reflected by the rising RSI on the Daily Data. But note that the Weekly RSI has turned moderately negative, so any sell-off in the Crude Oil markets early this week could turn the currently positive RSI on the Daily XLE data to a negative, which would lead to a pull-back in this sector.

This week XLE closed up +0.93 pct w€/W to 54.13. Next to SMH (chips), it was second strongest. But on Friday, while SMH broke down considerably, XLE held its ground.

The 40wma (40-week Moving Average) for XLE is presently 50.01 and rising, so if XLE drops below that technical support then it's probably wise to start a larger scale sector selling program, rather than the small degree of scaling back we have cautioned on.

And selling would include the specialty plays like the Canadian oil sands and the North American pipelines, drillers and oilfield services companies. Some of these companies are structured with relatively heavy debt, which will weigh on profitability (and further restructuring possibilities) going forward should interest rates (and bond yields) continue to rise.

At this point, the economy is strong enough and interest rates low enough and crude oil prices high enough to sustain trading interest on the long side, particularly in companies that are doing share buybacks and/or increasing dividend payouts substantially.

With concerns over the Middle East and Venezuela and Nigeria, the Canadian oilsands companies are getting lots of talking head coverage. This is a no-brainer as long as crude oil does not drop into the 40's (presently $63.67) or the 10-year U.S. Treasury paper (TNX) does not move from 4.68 pct to say 5.25 pct or higher.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

The XLB (Basic Materials sector) was flat this week, closing at 31.74, up just +0.06 pct. That would have been more than made up by Friday's gain of +1.7 pct in Alcoa (NYSE: AA).

This sector rallied from the outset on Wed.

Mostly the strength is coming from the metals, but the chemicals are starting to look stronger, and will stop their descent when crude oil prices come down below 60.

Last week I mentioned Lyondell Chemical (NYSE: LYO), which had been in free-fall, and DuPont Chemical (NYSE: DD), which like LYO came down sharply in price a week ago Wed. This week, LO was up +0.73 pct W/W and DD was up +1.7 pct W/W. But the RSI " even on the Hourly Data is still negative, so you only want to buy some on extreme weakness.

As to the query from a new reader from England who asked about the put writing strategy, the answer is simple. I look for a fundamentally well-run company (relative to peer group), weakness in economic fundamentals that will someday change (e.g., high raw material costs with oil in this case, which will drop, thereby improving the bottom line, and factory production that is low today but bound to rise, thereby increasing top line growth as well).

So I look at the RSI technical indicator, and the long-term price average (presumably being paid by institutional money managers), and hope that the current price falls to where the RSI for the Weekly drops to about 30. That is what I call the Accumulation Zone. Then I watch the Daily Data RSI more closely from that point, watching the trading action in the target company peer group.

Finally, when I am ready to buy, I start slow by writing puts, which gives me one of two things. The stock starts to move higher and I either take in that option premium in full or in part by buying back the puts at lower prices, or the underlying stock gets put to me at the attractive strike price that fits my long-term price appetite for that company.

What I am always trying to do is reduce my cost base, so that my dividend to cost yield remains high. That plus the capital growth of my portfolio over many years are my two portfolio objectives. Nothing else matters.

With respect to the last comment, you should not be taken in by the attempts of the financial services industry (the sell-side) to differentiate their marketing. Once you have selected a Watch List of say 100 high-quality companies fairly well diversified by sector and by geography, you don't need to get into the sell-side brochures of (i) asset classes and allocation, (ii) big company vs small, (iii) growth versus value, (iv) this country or that, or (v) detailed labels like Growth at a reasonable price (GARP), etc.

That stuff is all marketing; it is their concern, not yours. Your only concern is your own portfolio, and having a plan to either self-direct it or discuss it with a trusted and competent advisor.

And I try to simplify the process for you. Nothing more " the point being that you make your own decisions.

In that regard, I'd say the biggest mistake I see from the average reader is that people seem to think a long-term trading approach can fit on top of an itchy day trader's finger. That takes discipline to learn. And that, for some people, takes a lifetime.

But trading is a lifetime voyage, and it is all about life. All of us are born with certain innate abilities, but we have to go through a process of learning and developing. W all start by walking before we run, which for traders means having to take baby steps before we get the knack of walking, which we learn before we can run. It all takes time.

As a person of influence say, all I can do is lay down the mechanics, discuss the terrain, give you a road map, and send you on your way. But it stops there because trading is personal, and I don't know you and am not your advisor. Nor do I wish to be for that would make me less independent and objective and I crave the freedom to do my own thing.

Let's get back to the U.S. sector studies.

---

Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Last week I noted that the Industrial sector had enjoyed a couple good weeks, "But maybe enough is enough for XLI. The RSI data is looking a little toppy."

This week XLI was up +0.24 pct, but all of that came Friday. And Friday after was not kind to the Broad Market Bulls.

XLI closed at 32.74, which is all of 8 cents higher.

Dragging this group down were UTX (down -1.75 pct), MMM (down -1.39 pct), and BA (down -1.24 pct, all W/W. And if you were closely observant, you will have noticed that the selling started about 2pm ET Friday on the NYSE.

These are global companies with major production operations in the U.S., so they tend to outperform when the USD is falling. That's because a Yen or a Euro buys more product for the Yen or Euro when the USD falls.

If you think about it this way, if the USD fell to a penny (roughly 20 wooden nickels), those Otis elevators (UTX) and Boeing commercial and military aircraft (BA) would be given away almost free to foreign buyers, and I'm sure there would be a line-up to buy them. The U.S. tourism industry would thrive, but then again the U.S. would become an island " Americans would not be able to afford traveling abroad. And the homes and buildings and corporations in America would be sold almost exclusively to foreigners, because they could afford to buy them for almost nothing.

So if you wish for a cheaper USD, let's say to put those Ford and GM workers back to work, you might not want what you wish for. Those once great American industrial corporations have to learn how to survive on their own. In fact there used to be hundreds of auto production companies in the northeast USA, and the once Big Three were the survivors.

So now the foreigners are knocking on the doors, including buying the ports, so the process of survival of the fittest continues.

---

Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

XLY (Consumer Discretionary sector ETF) was up 3 cents or +0.09 pct to 33.48 this week.

If you check the long-term charts you will see that XLY has been in a bear phase since the end of Dec-2004 (about $35.50) " over 14 months. Moreover, for over 3½ months, XLY gets knocked down every time every time it tries to climb above $33.75.

The growth of the sector 800-pound giant (Wal-Mart) is taking place outside the U.S., and virtually " over the Internet.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

XLP (Consumer Staples) has basically done zip since January 2005. This is the group that includes MO, KO and PG that has to increase dividends or else it will fall out of favor.

This week XLP dropped -0.55 pct to $23.55. PG was the reason, going down -3.0 pct W/W.

The early rally on Friday cratered in the last hour. That could be a sign of deception, getting ready to rally on Monday, or it could be what I think is more likely, which is that $23.70 was the tipping point.

There is no safe haven if interest rates rise unless dividends also rise commensurately.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

IYH (Healthcare) was down -0.94 pct to $64.29. That was 9th worst of these ten ETF's.

There was extreme market weakness in the last hour of trading on Friday. We'll have to see if the selling continues on Monday.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

XLF (Financials) was down the most of these ten ETF's this week. XLF dropped -1.12 pct W/W to 32.52.

The big losers of the financial sector this week were AIG (down -2.22 pct), AXP (down -2.04 pct) and C (down -1.99 pct) W/W.

Since C and AIG have a huge market cap, the USD lost in portfolios this week was big.

If the relatively small caps of the important Dow 30 index are down or up big, I don't pay as much attention as if the C, AIG, WMT, GE, XOM group are moving fast.

Interesting to me is that the very low RSI on the Hourly Data for XLF, which was reached mid-day Tuesday (at about $32.60) was useless for a technical rally. When it did that twice in Feb., there was a nice next day rally. But not this time. And when there was a minor rally on Friday through the day, the last hour caved in.

The yields on the U.S. treasury's have been rising, and did break out to short-term cycle highs. That's one source of worry for the Financial sector Bulls.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

SMH (semiconductor technology) may have been the best of 10 ETF's this week. But those traders who jumped in pre-open on Wed. may not be so happy now.

Yes, SMH was up +2.68 pct on the week, to close at $37.94. But after the first two hours of trading on Wed morning, the SMH actually closed at a lower level.

So just as I thought; this was an engineered rally, which served to pump the current favorites in the sector " taking the RSI to 90 on the Hourly Data " and a lot of distribution, then pop went the balloon.

So sure was I this would happen, I let you in on it before you heard the bang.

To repeat, SMH jumped +2.7 pct W/W, but I'm not putting any credence in it spreading across the broad market, or even lasting long.

I'm sure the promoter's writers and printing presses are working overtime this weekend, but in the end, the chip stocks will rally when the economy takes off again, when people don't have to dip into savings or re-mortgage their homes to buy things like PC's, computer games, home entertainment centers and automobiles " all of which are laden with chips.

Speaking of chips, Intel (INTC) was guided down for the next quarter, so the talking heads told us the new boy in town is AMD. Well look at what happened to AMD on Friday.

Bam! AMD went down -4.4 pct on Friday, right after reaching an 80 reading on the 30-Minute and Hourly Data charts.

Do you recall what I wrote last week about INTC and (drum roll) AMD? I said about paired trades, "; it usually requires them to sell something at that point. And if they want to keep their portfolio similarly weighted, they would sell, possibly in this case, an AMD and buy an INTC. You might want to go back to my last week's notes (WIR #07) in this section to see what I wrote about INTC."

Yes, Intel is telling you that life as an 800-pound gorilla is no King Kong movie. It's really crappy, yada-yada. Puleeze.

So this week, INTC was down -0.20 pct from $20.65 to $20.32, and AMD dropped from $40.54 to $39.51, which just happens to be -2.54 pct.

And I told you a week ago it was going to happen " even drew the charts and went into my old "Dream Merchant" shtick with the paired trade thing.

Oh, and those gullible people who were taken in by that laptop versus PC story this week have to be crying when their AMD crashed.

You know, after you have seen a hundred of these stock promotions, you get to catch on to the game. After you've seen a thousand or ten thousand like I have, you pick them right out " usually right before the sting.

Trust me, these people are not as smooth as Paul Newman and Robert Redford.

And some new readers are wondering why I refer to some of these TH's as con artists. I should revert to calling them clowns because, really, they are not the ones who write the scripts that deceive the public. They are just the actors.

The producers are the Gnomes " the big, big money behind the equity market " and those are the ones you have to watch out for. These are the people who work closely with others at their level in other countries, with close links to central bankers and governments and securities regulators.

---

Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

Last week I wrote: "A week ago, IYZ was up +2.27 pct W/W and this week it was up +4.03 pct, closing at 25.31. I am amazed; But IYZ needs lower interest rates or a stronger economy for the long-run, and short-term, I think I saw it peak on Friday afternoon. This week, IYZ went down -1.07 pct to 25.04."

Well, based on a strong Wed, this week IYZ (Telecom Services) was up +0.48 pct W/W to $25.16. T was up on the week +1.52 pct.

But look at Friday: T was down -1.03 pct, and VZ dropped -1.24 pct on the day, which was a lot worse than the Dow or the S&P 500 indexes.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

XLU (Utilities) was down -0.71 pct W/W to $32.30.

Last week I wrote: "After a huge move in the first hour on Tuesday, the rest of this week looked to me like XLU could not break to new high ground. And now that the Daily RSI is extended on the upside at 75.5, it appears that XLU may sidetrack or start to move down."

So it moved down. It would have been down even more except a rally started Thurs morning cranked it some before the Rat Catcher came along late Friday setting things right.

---

Bonds:

Bonds in the U.S. sold off more this week as yields lifted by +2 basis points up to 2-year paper, and up a startling +11 bp on the 10-year TNX and +13 bp on the 30-year (TYX).

So it's a case of rising rates. Rising in the U.S.; rising in Europe; and soon to rise in Japan.

This is now the story you have to watch closely.

And please do not take advice from somebody who is trading against you, which is why I laugh when CNBC interviews a Saudi oil tycoon with bated breath " as if the audience is going to learn the future price of oil. NOT!

So why listen to the Bond King Bill Gross? As far as I'm concerned, Bill Gross is the Bond King of PIMCO, and he's trading against me, and when rates move against him, he's pissed, so he comes on CNBC to tell lies like two weeks ago when he said his best advice was to buy the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note. "Nothing wrong with a 4.50 yield!" he told us.

But Bill I don't want my mistake to turn out to be A TEN YEAR HOLD. I can make 4½ percent in a month, so why do I want to get sucked into holding Bill Gross's toilet paper for ten years.

In case you haven't figured it out, the TNX is not yielding 4.50 pct; it's now up to 4.68 pct, which is a 15 bp smash in the mouth in two weeks since Willy the Wonderful gave us such valuable advice.

Look, Bill Gross is a Gnome. Leave it at that. In fact, as a CNBC "personality" he's the Pied Piper for his other Gnome friends.

You listen to him, and you'll lose your house. Think about it.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.40	4.39	4.38	4.27
6 Month	4.52	4.52	4.50	4.39
2 Year	4.73	4.70	4.71	4.56
3 Year	4.73	4.69	4.69	4.53
5 Year	4.70	4.65	4.63	4.49
10 Year	4.68	4.62	4.57	4.55
30 Year	4.65	4.61	4.52	4.70

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.12	3.12	3.10	3.04
2yr AAA	3.14	3.13	3.11	3.02
2yr A	3.24	3.24	3.01	3.11
5yr AAA	3.24	3.22	3.21	3.16
5yr AA	3.26	3.23	3.23	3.18
5yr A	3.33	3.31	3.30	3.29
10yr AAA	3.58	3.54	3.55	3.55
10yr AA	3.56	3.51	3.53	3.54
10yr A	3.71	3.64	3.71	3.70
20yr AAA	3.96	3.92	3.93	4.03
20yr AA	3.96	3.92	3.94	3.99
20yr A	4.10	4.03	4.08	4.02

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.85	4.82	4.82	4.69
2yr A	4.89	4.86	4.89	4.74
5yr AAA	4.87	4.84	4.83	4.73
5yr AA	4.99	4.95	4.92	4.81
5yr A	5.04	4.99	4.95	4.86
10yr AAA	5.21	5.16	5.15	5.17
10yr AA	5.26	5.24	5.16	5.15
10yr A	5.29	5.27	5.20	5.18
20yr AAA	5.52	5.52	5.47	5.51
20yr AA	6.03	5.93	5.74	5.69
20yr A	5.76	5.73	5.67	5.70

Interest rates and bond yields.

US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

One look at the Monthly price charts for the various bond series since last July (three quarters) makes you wonder why Bill Gross still has a few strands of hair left.

Bond holders are in tough.

And this week, the Lehman TLT 20+ Year Bond Fund was down -1.89 pct. Ouch.

That's what happens when rates rise, which they always do with "quantitative easing" (money printing overload) and/or rising central bank rates.

It shouldn't take a Harvard MBA to figure that one out.

Last week I wrote: "This will end badly. These people (TH's, Administration, etc) can only say there is no inflation, and that the economy is cranking on all cylinders, for so long. The Little People can see with their own eyes that things are not so great. It shows up in their bank balance, and growing debts, and fewer times out to the movies, etc."

Same old, same old.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

Last week I wrote: "Do you know what the opposite of "Wealth Effect" is? ;You got it;.
And the holders of the shares in the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) will too."

Ah, people must be getting it. Fannie was down this week -2.76 pct $54.52, and Freddie was down -2.12 pct to $66.51, all in a week.

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Commodities:

After a disastrous Monday for the commodities crowd, it was clear skies ahead. The $CRB (commodities index) closed up at 331.34, which was a gain of +0.74 pct W/W. That was quite nice after Monday's punch in the stomach.

That's what happens when the Gnomes push crude oil and gold down, and the Little People, for whatever their reasons, decide it should go back up.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

A week ago, I said: "Of course, on Friday this commodity index was up +1.48 pct. So, hopefully it keeps lifting on Monday." It was down hard, but that just goes to prove that the Fat Lady sings at the end of the week.

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

$WTIC (NY Crude Oil index based on the near futures) moved up +1.21 pct this week from 62.91 to 63.67.

Things are not going well in the Middle East, and so the President himself has paid a sales call. I really don't know how that's going to help. It seems that the Little People of Pakistan have their own Gnomes to knock off.

But I don't have a view at this point, so as I say, ‘when in doubt, get out'.

You might want to keep an eye on the Canadian oilsands stocks.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Gold:

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

Last week I wrote about Gold (as I did for the other precious metals): "I think it's going higher. Soon."

So this week Gold (and the other precious metals) did pretty much do as I commanded. :-)

$GOLD rallied +$6.11 (+1.09 pct) on the week to close at $565.26.

And that's after a bad Friday, which was down -$4.44 (-0.78 pct).

For a while there Thursday, it looked like the gold-linked Canadian Loonie (Buck) was about to zoom to par with the USD, which might have kept a few Yanks from coming to Toronto's PDAC convention this weekend.

The shopping in Toronto is not so hot when the USD falls. :-)

I'll be writing lots about the precious metals this week, so I'll cut it short today. There is some technical resistance at this level, but really it's a case of the USD and the global economy strength at this point. The cycle high of $575.35 is the target, and I think it gets taken out this week.

Why? Well there's going to be over 12,000 professional gold traders, gold miners, prospectors, financiers, and generally nice people gathering at PDAC in Toronto this Sunday, and since I've been to a few of these in the past 35 years or so, I know that the stories get bigger by the day.

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

The Silver Crazies had quite a day on Thursday. As for the week, $Silver (Silver index based on the near futures contracts) was up $0.43 (+4.42 pct) to $10.21. The high was $10.32 on Friday.

But then you knew it would, right. You knew tat a week ago, with $Silver at $9.77, I said, "I think it's going higher. A lot higher, and soon."

You have to give me a 10 for Effort and another 10 for Performance. But, I'm not going to bow because I need a strong back to get through the coming week.

Btw, this is new high territory going back to when Abe Lincoln was President. I josh, but without checking it's got to a lot longer than my average reader is old.

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

$PLAT closed strongly up +2.68 pct W/W to $1,065.60, which is a gain of $27.80 on top of the previous week's gain of +2.52 pct W/W. The Platinum metal price was up +0.74 pct or $7.80 on Friday.

Yes, I called it a week ago.

There will be resistance at about $1080.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

$PALL had another superlative week, going up $16.54 (+5.69 pct) to $307.33. But, then, you are not surprised.

It was even up +$5.66 (+1.88 pct) on Friday.

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

$COPPER (Copper index based on near futures) lifted +2.48 pct W/W to $226.18. There is technical resistance at $231.63.

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Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The $XAU Philadelphia Gold & Silver Miner index dropped -3.36 (-2.39 pct) this week to close Friday at 137.15.

After reaching a long-term cycle high early February at 156.47, the $XAU has struggled. But so too has the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index.

After peaking at 74.70 at the start of February, XGD dropped to 64 on Feb 13, before rallying to 70.13 on Friday.

If the gold bullion rises above $575 this week (which is a big ‘if'), then XGD will challenge the 75 level and probably go through it within a week. But that's a stretch, and is going to take a lot of tall tales at PDAC.

Here are the Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

XGD Hourly data:

For an interactive look, here are links to the Hourly data charts of three groups of proven goldminer stocks. You can click on the tabs for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts.

List #1

List #2

List #3

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Forex:

The trade-weighted $USD was up slightly +0.13 pct on Friday to close the week at 89.62, but the rest of the week, particularly Tuesday and Thursday, was a bad one for the USD, as it fell W/W by -1.13 pct.

Last week I wrote: "As I have said, I continue to believe that if the Treasury keeps printing, and the Fed does not tighten unreasonably, and the PPI/CPI numbers keep expanding, that the $USD must fall."

There is technical support because the 40wma (40-Week Moving Average) is at 89.53. But I don't see how that can hold if the other central bankers keep raising rates at this point.

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

The Euro (priced in USD) rallied +1.29 pct W/W to close Friday at 120.28. Tuesday and Thursday were big rally days for the Euro.

I believe we'll see a stronger Euro and Yen for the next several weeks, so there is no change in my opinion from a week ago.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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International Equities:

Japan weakened and Canada grew stronger this week in the equity market.

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The EWJ (Japanese equity market ETF that trades in USD in the U.S.) was down 2.10 pct W/W to 13.53. On Friday EWJ dropped -1.38 pct.

From its cycle high of 14.30 in January, the EWJ has declined -5.4 pct. The economy has been strong, but there is now talk of the Bank of Japan having to tighten credit, and slow the printing of new money.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The EWU (U.K. equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up +0.51 pct W/W (just like last week), closing at 19.80.

To repeat, EWU has enjoyed a solid run for four months except for the third week in December and the first week in February. Its future, however, seems closely linked to equity markets in Europe and the U.S. .

EWU was up +0.25 pct on Friday, but came off big at the session end. There is technical resistance ahead.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The Canadian EWC had a great week, after having a great previous Friday. The Canadian banks, oils and metals are thriving.

This week, EWC jumped +2.79 pct to 23.97, as the index rallied from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon.

What this seems to be setting up is a move by Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge to slow or stop the raising of rates temporarily, which would weaken the Canadian Dollar. The Loonie, as it is called, was jumping this week, particularly on Thursday.

There is even talk of a Cdn Dollar at par with the USD, which would hurt the factory-based industrials and the tourist segments of the economy. It would also hurt the income trust market because it would push interest rates higher.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

This week was a flat week for the U.S. market. The Dow 30 was down W/W by -0.36 pct to 11,022.

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change. There were 19 Dow stocks down and 11 up on the week. A week ago it was 18 down and 12 up.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
HPQ	33.26	-0.93	-2.72%	3.87%	-2.23%	7.60%	15.61%	13.79%	20.51%	59.83%
CAT	74.61	0.27	0.36%	2.63%	3.68%	9.09%	29.08%	26.87%	28.09%	52.67%
DD	41.00	-0.04	-0.10%	1.69%	-1.25%	5.43%	-4.78%	-5.00%	5.53%	-22.79%
T	27.99	-0.29	-1.03%	1.52%	-1.62%	5.54%	13.27%	11.65%	17.26%	14.90%
HD	42.20	-0.09	-0.21%	1.37%	0.81%	5.61%	2.33%	1.27%	4.64%	6.24%
MSFT	26.93	-0.04	-0.15%	1.13%	0.45%	-2.71%	0.34%	-3.86%	-0.33%	6.99%
XOM	60.98	0.13	0.21%	0.93%	1.21%	-1.57%	4.29%	3.23%	0.49%	-3.28%
DIS	28.22	0.19	0.68%	0.86%	4.33%	12.43%	15.66%	13.42%	13.97%	-1.23%
AA	30.40	0.50	1.67%	0.80%	0.10%	-0.82%	1.67%	8.19%	12.93%	-2.81%
HON	41.72	0.24	0.58%	0.58%	0.34%	8.28%	11.37%	15.70%	9.88%	9.79%
MRK	35.19	0.07	0.20%	0.26%	-2.20%	4.05%	7.45%	17.42%	22.06%	11.43%
JPM	41.59	-0.07	-0.17%	-0.17%	1.89%	4.00%	3.48%	6.67%	21.93%	12.38%
IBM	79.96	0.02	0.03%	-0.17%	-1.17%	-1.56%	-2.56%	-9.80%	0.63%	-13.47%
INTC	20.32	-0.17	-0.83%	-0.20%	-4.82%	-4.15%	-20.53%	-25.92%	-19.62%	-17.06%
GE	33.06	0.21	0.64%	-0.24%	-0.87%	0.49%	-6.53%	-6.87%	-0.81%	-7.00%
WMT	45.33	0.27	0.60%	-0.26%	-2.79%	-2.05%	-1.95%	-5.50%	1.75%	-14.25%
MO	72.11	0.50	0.70%	-0.47%	-1.49%	0.11%	-3.83%	-1.65%	2.93%	9.77%
JNJ	57.47	-0.22	-0.38%	-0.50%	-2.56%	-0.31%	-6.75%	-6.11%	-8.63%	-13.90%
PFE	26.21	0.15	0.58%	-0.61%	1.55%	1.67%	10.22%	23.05%	3.47%	-1.43%
VZ	33.58	-0.42	-1.24%	-0.68%	-2.81%	6.47%	10.53%	5.37%	3.42%	-7.67%
KO	41.80	-0.11	-0.26%	-1.02%	0.50%	1.38%	2.20%	-2.38%	-4.78%	-3.20%
BA	73.39	0.59	0.81%	-1.24%	1.16%	2.36%	4.34%	5.69%	14.07%	27.81%
MCD	34.85	-0.09	-0.26%	-1.39%	-4.18%	-1.69%	3.97%	-0.17%	9.25%	4.31%
MMM	72.88	-0.17	-0.23%	-1.39%	-0.23%	1.01%	-7.88%	-8.21%	1.93%	-14.16%
UTX	57.86	-0.43	-0.74%	-1.75%	-0.58%	0.19%	2.35%	5.22%	14.35%	16.07%
C	45.92	-0.13	-0.28%	-1.99%	-1.12%	1.64%	-6.84%	-5.84%	4.65%	-4.27%
AXP	53.75	-0.03	-0.06%	-2.04%	-1.34%	2.26%	2.23%	4.15%	-2.91%	-1.75%
AIG	65.48	-0.32	-0.49%	-2.22%	-3.96%	0.02%	-5.95%	-2.69%	10.37%	0.80%
PG	59.67	0.12	0.20%	-2.98%	-1.75%	0.03%	1.51%	4.03%	6.57%	11.57%
GM	19.21	-0.20	-1.03%	-3.90%	-13.78%	-18.60%	1.64%	-13.00%	-41.63%	-45.38%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into your browser and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

After you bring up the list, click on the Performance tab. To sort for the relative price performance for any recent period, you just need to click on the column header of the period that interests you.

The Dow 30 winners this past 5 days:
HPQ, up +3.87 pct (a week ago, HPQ was down -5.9 pct)
CAT, up +2.63 pct (they sell a lot of mining equipment)
DD, up +1.69 pct (you knew it would be! But a week ago it was down -2.9 pct)
T, up +1.55 pct (down -3.1 pct a week ago; and was crushed Friday at the close)
HD, up +1.37 pct (puff pieces on Nardelli)

The Dow 30 losers this past 5 days:
GM, down "3.90 pct (after down -10.3 pct a week ago; where's LeBeau?)
PG, down, -2.98 pct (was up strongly a week ago; down bigger this week)
AIG, down "2.22 pct (killed like AXP and C, other Financials of the Dow)
AXP down "2.04 pct (the Kingdom must be unhappy, but with no USD who travels?)
C, down "1.99 pct (down like AXP and AIG because bonds are down)

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

This week's new Value Line reports for Dow 30 components are GM and JNJ, two recent powerhouses in the Dow. NOT. Next Friday, it's MCD, then a week later XOM, and BA the week following. New readers of this blog are encouraged to read Value Line. Now that I see they pop up again, I'm smiling.

Wrap up:

These are interesting times we live in. But why do they have to be so interesting?

This week the Supreme Court of Canada unanimously proved that Canada is one screwed up country. Nine of nines judges have ruled that Sikh school kids are entitled to carry "ceremonial" knives or swords to school as part of their daily dress.

As one (reasonably sane) person said to me: "This just makes me crazy!" Knives taken to school, and on public transit? I don't think so.

What does this have to do with capital markets? Nothing. But it just goes to my point that Canada is no longer being run by Canadians, but by judges.

Oh, btw, the head of Canada's military says he expects the armed forces to be stationed in Afghanistan for at least the next ten years (or I suspect until World War III breaks out, whichever happens sooner).

BCara@BillCara.com