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March 2, 2006
U.S. equity futures under attack this morning, Thurs., Mar. 2, 2006, 9:12 AM
Last evening I pointed out that the spin from the Administration would have you believe that "surging" consumer spending was the reason for the big rally on Nasdaq. I called it "an utter and total crock of hooey" just to make a point.
Today, the retail sales data is quite negative.
I really hope you readers are catching on to this game.
You have called yourself players of the market, when all the time the market has been playing you. It's time you reconsidered your entire approach to trading.
The Dow futures are now down -31. Nasdaq futures are down -5. These are negative; but I've seen much worse. The trick is to see how much follow-through there is in the chip stocks this morning and through the rest of the week.
If the chip stocks don't continue to lift off, the Big Apple is about to come down.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 2, 2006 09:12:46 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
A very interesting post! I am suspect of the recent “bull rally� claimed by IBD and others due to the lack of support by individual stock leaders and the lack of strength in the NH-NL ratio. Without my three main indicators clicking, I am still on the defensive side of the stick (I do have open positions but I am not aggressive at this time).
The New York Stock Exchange is the casino run by the government as directed by a few very influential Kings of commerce. As the saying goes "He who has the gold makes the rule", so why would you think a small investor has any chance in Hell. Go to Las Vegas if you want to gamble, at least they will comp you occassionally. My Merrill Lynch guy couldn't give a damn if I made money or not, much less comp me for all the fees he collects.
Posted by: StocktraderII ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
March 2, 2006 10:34 AM [link]
StocktraderII - then why are you still at ML?
Posted by: g034 at
March 2, 2006 10:38 AM [link]
TLT-
As I posted last week... sentiment swung too far to the bull side even as technicals deteriorated. Risk is higher now as these folks begin to grasp they are on the wrong side. The swing in sentiment can take a few months to play out.
This has to be considered a negative for stocks- at some point.
Posted by: stockman at
March 2, 2006 11:04 AM [link]
stockman-
$USD being hammered again today! I won't bow to the mirror on my S/T top call the other day because I really DO have a bad back (stupidly injured 3 years ago shoveling snow of all things!). Combination of $ and oil very supportive of gold here. The gold bears really have to be frustrated! The fundamentals just won't allow them any leverage to push this significantly lower.
Posted by: MarkM at
March 2, 2006 11:57 AM [link]
the Big Apple is about to come down
I would be grateful if you could all tell me what this might mean for european stock markets.
Hopefullyme
Posted by: hopefullyme at
March 2, 2006 12:31 PM [link]
As "something" becomes well known, like seasonal strengths/weaknesses, that "something" holds less control over price movements.
Bill mentioned that the environment has changed (or something to that effect, I can't find the post), this is due, IMHO, to the end of the multidecade interest rate decline along with the massive liquidity injections (inflation). This new environment has historically favored "things" and not "paper".
Energy is a "thing" whose seasonalities are well known over the last 20 years when "things" were out of favor. Could the seasonality patterns be ending due to geopolitics and the new, inflationary environment? Is it worth the capital gain taxes and the transaction costs to sell out of "things" only to wake up one morning to a full blown civil war in Iraq, or a tanker blown up in the Strait of Hormuz. Not for me. Although, the trade has been to sell out of energy during the peak heating season when prices are at their highest and then to buy back in early summer before travel season increases oil demand.
My daughter had on the tv yesterday and I saw "The Wiggles". A funny (to me anyway) thought occured to me. I pictured the traders that continue to sell out of commodities trying to catch the squiggles as "The Wiggles". After seeing part of the show, I don't want to be a Wiggle, so my core position will be maintained.
Long Gold and energy.
Posted by: g034 at
March 2, 2006 12:50 PM [link]
USD tanking,gold roaring higher.Right at the neckline of reversed H&S. The target price if the neckline is broken-610 April contract. There is so many shorts that will be forced to cover.
Posted by: Marp at
March 2, 2006 3:51 PM [link]
gold and oil...i think this is a happy croud today.
Posted by: Bullring at
March 2, 2006 4:06 PM [link]
crowd that is
Posted by: Bullring at
March 2, 2006 4:07 PM [link]
How about silver. Cripes!
Posted by: Quintsquarry at
March 2, 2006 4:18 PM [link]
I would like to encourage everybody who has Google Earth to go to the site of Kimber Res. to watch an amazing show. Bill's Alamos and many others are included in the presentation. Enjoy !
http://www.kimberresources.com/monterde3d.html
:: Kimber Resources : Google Earth ::
Posted by: Marp at
March 2, 2006 4:31 PM [link]
Today, the ECB raises rates, the dollar declines, oil, gold & silver are up.
Next week BOJ sets policy and IF they change the zero interest rate policy, I think you'll see more of the same IMHO. With BOJ, it's a BIG IF.
Bullring--If the last Fed rate increase is in May and the ECB raises again in June (probable IMHO) gold and oil will please the crowd even more than those moves today!
It's going to be an interesting Spring in the Northern Hemisphere.
Posted by: Seamus at
March 2, 2006 4:49 PM [link]
Today there's follow-through on NSM and TXN ... INTC still flat, chart looks weak.
Can a successful chip rally be engineered without INTC participation?
t4k
Posted by: trade4keeps![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
March 2, 2006 10:10 AM [link]