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March 31, 2006

Review of "Predictions for 2006", Friday, March 31, 2006, 8:45 AM

On Friday December 30, 2005, I indulged myself in a navel-gazing exercise. I made extreme statements, or let's say I made some statements that were 180 degrees opposite of the common drivel from the Sell-Side. I gave you my Predictions for 2006.

Three months later, I think I'm right on track. Take prediction number 7, for instance: "For North America, 2006 will be known as the Year of the Metals, especially precious metals."

"Year of the Metals" indeed.

I'll make another prediction here " actually an embellishment of others. I'll say that interest rates will continue to rise until the back of the Bull is broken. Then interest rates will start to fall. Then somewhere in this cascade of rates, there will be a point reached where the interest-sensitive parts of the Financial sector will fall deep enough into a long-term Accumulation Zone that a new Bull Market will start.

We are late in the long-term equity cycle of 2002-2006. This is the part of the cycle where precious metal prices flourish.

Think of market prices as being on one long roller-coaster. When the gold and silver car at the end reaches the zenith, it's straight downhill from there " the ugly Bear of 2006-2007 will be confirmed.

The more that the Little People jump aboard that Bear train (by selling, shorting and buying puts), the faster it will reach the bottom.

Then you know in advance what will come after that because you have taken this roller-coaster before.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 31, 2006 08:45:15 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Bill, you are very accurate in your views. However, from a nominal perspective, this next dip may be decieving. With an additional 8% of currency pumped in every year, we could see a significant loss of real value without share prices dropping very much at all. It would be difficult to make money going short in that case.

Posted by: Quintsquarry [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 31, 2006 9:44 AM [link]