Two weeks ago I wrote: "Does that great equity bear attack now, or is it going to be impeded for a time by a mountain of paper money being printed by central bankers; To cut to the chafe, I think the equity markets are not yet ready to go bearish."

And the markets have gone higher " even though U.S. new home sales were down -10.5 pct in February, and the U.S. Treasury yield flattened more " in fact going into a 5 basis point deficit between the 10-year and 2-year T-Notes.

But what can you say when Wall Street's investment bankers are making coin faster than the Admin and Fed can print it? We're now in the latter part of the business cycle when gunslinging CEO's are throwing their chips on the table, such as Pat Russo's Lucent (NYSE: LU) getting friendly with Serge Tchuruk's Alcatel (NYSE: ALA), possibly begetting LUALA.

And if that $33 billion dollar baby is born, I guess the great northern white elephant Nortel (NYSE: NTL) is next to deliver " hopefully to somebody with a better accounting system.

Meanwhile I'm beginning to get into sync with Rick's friend Captain Renault who said, "I'm shocked, shocked that the Gnomes took GOOG down like a sinking ship" -- just before S&P 500 came calling. I'm stretching it, but you get the point.

Friday, GOOG jumped +$24.00 (+7.0 pct) to nip the shorts where it hurts, which just goes to show that the equity market is a war zone too.

Let's see what the collateral damage was this week.

Global Market Summary

International Equities: Nikkei and Footsie breaking out on upside

U.S. Equities : very quiet; Dow 30 locked in irons, with S&P 500 losing a little and Nasdaq gaining a little. The story this week was the small caps continuing to move up (+1.0 pct), with a remarkable bounce from an oversold Tuesday

Dow 30 : 17 up and 13 down

U.S. Sector ETFs: 4 up and 6 down this week, which is not in sync with Dow/Nasdaq
10: Energy (XLE): #2 " it's still all about money printing
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #6 " unremarkable week
20: Industrials (XLI): #5 " strong dollar; wet blanket
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #9 " down with DIS
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #4 " unremarkable week
35: Healthcare (IYH): unremarkable week
40: Financial (XLF): # 8 " finally a loser except for JPM
45: Technology (SMH chips): #1 because of capex talk
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #3 due to LUALA, VZ & T
55: Utilities (XLU): #10 because of inverting yield curve

Bonds: Bonds rallied Friday morning, on weak new home sales, but were otherwise quiet. And btw, the new homes sales data didn't come out until 10:00am ET, and the bond market and interest-sensitive stocks were on wheels well before that " so the question is (isn't it always?): Who knew in advance?

Commodities: Commodities rallied a bit

Oil & Gas: Oil did eke out a very small gain thanks to a late week rally

Gold: Gold rallied big on Friday morning

Goldminers: Goldminers rallied big as well

Forex: On Friday, the Euro rallied, and $USD plunged; but the rest of the week was the opposite. All told, the $USD gained a lot W/W

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Sector ETF:

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds.

The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N, but is otherwise unsorted.

For this week, there were 4 ETF's up and 6 down.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
SMH	36.20	0.34	0.95%	1.83%	0.67%	-2.03%	-4.54%	-4.16%	0.00%	10.87%
XLE	53.86	0.41	0.77%	0.39%	4.81%	0.43%	2.20%	5.09%	2.47%	28.15%
IYZ	25.89	0.09	0.35%	0.23%	1.53%	3.39%	12.71%	11.79%	10.64%	14.30%
XLP	23.98	0.00	0.00%	0.08%	-0.70%	1.27%	2.30%	1.35%	5.50%	4.67%
XLI	33.68	-0.03	-0.09%	-0.33%	2.53%	3.12%	6.48%	5.78%	13.21%	10.53%
XLB	32.05	-0.02	-0.06%	-0.43%	2.36%	1.04%	3.65%	4.94%	18.35%	5.95%
IYH	64.83	-0.30	-0.46%	-0.61%	0.92%	-0.11%	1.89%	1.11%	4.11%	11.32%
XLF	32.88	-0.01	-0.03%	-0.66%	0.74%	-0.03%	2.11%	2.18%	12.03%	17.01%
XLY	33.79	-0.01	-0.03%	-0.68%	1.29%	1.02%	2.39%	2.12%	4.65%	2.55%
XLU	31.49	-0.06	-0.19%	-2.05%	-0.69%	-3.20%	-1.59%	-1.13%	-3.64%	9.42%

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) was second best performer, but managed a weekly gain of just +0.39 pct, closing Friday at 53.86. Trading was unremarkable.

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials sector ETF (XLB) was down on the week -0.43 pct to close Friday at 32.05. Trading was unremarkable.

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI) was down -0.33 pct on the week, closing Friday at 33.68. Trading was unremarkable.

MMM was this week's best Dow performer within XLI, going up +2.7 pct. MMM was also up +3.44-pct a week earlier.

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) had a relatively bad week, going down -0.68 pct, to close Friday at 33.79.

Dow component Disney (NYSE: DIS) was part of the reason, going down -4.2 pct W/W.

A week or two ago I wrote: "Looking back 18 months, XLY has had a series of lower highs in its cycles, going to 35.50 at end of Dec-04, down and then back to 35 in Jul-05, then down and back to 34 at end of Nov-05. I feel XLY has to test the cycle lows of about 30.75 of April and Oct-05 before the next true bull market will start in the U.S. In other words, consumption has to be in good shape, and WMT (Wal-Mart) has to be on the leader board."

This week, WMT was second best performing Dow 30 component, but I think that was because of its China expansion story, and maybe the storyline the Company was selling about catering to the rich & famous with expensive champagne, wine etc. The latter is something I have always said would be best done via eWal-Mart, where the upscale shopper doesn't have to be seen inside the downscale Wal-Mart department stores, but where Wal-Mart's huge purchasing advantage could still net the best deals on upscale products.

In any event, the point is that I have liked WMT during the Accumulation Zone it has been in recently, but as an indicator of the mass consumer in the U.S. returning to their cash registers, I haven't yet seen evidence of it. And as long as interest rates and commodity prices are rising, I don't think the poor consumer has got a chance. Certainly not at tax time.

Two weeks ago I wrote: "A component of XLY is GM, which was up +12.8 pct W/W, but GM is now a speculation, and not a sector play. Ignore it." After dropping -2.5 pct a week ago, this week GM was up +7.2 pct.

That's what happens when the Company decides it has sufficient cash to buy out half the union workers of America, and just in case it doesn't, it decided to sell 78-pct of the only profitable venture it had, GMAC, for $9 billion. That's what happens when you let Wharton School, Harvard and U Mich MBA school grads run your company.

Don't you think they had better start looking at the college youth of Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka and Tohoku Universities? These people know how to design, build and market cars, tires, and engines better than anybody in the world, which includes Detroit, or haven't you noticed.

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was flat on the week at 23.98. The Wednesday rebound from the strong sell-off Tuesday could not hold as prices came off Thursday and Friday.

A week ago I wrote: "(Last week's up) move could possibly be significant, and is one of the reasons I turned slightly more positive (i.e., less negative) in my outlook. XLP was in a long base from Dec-05 and broke out to the upside on Wed; The longer the base; the more important the breakout; But recall my words about XLP, which is a traditional safe haven: ‘There is no safe haven if interest rates rise unless dividends also rise commensurately'."

I'm inclined to buy the good ones in this sector when the Hourly data RSI drops close to 30, because I like the narrow long base action of the past couple weeks, and the break-out to the upside before that, but the truth is I just don't know.

The concern I have is with my favorite stock in this group Diageo (and that's not just because I'll be drinking Guinness at the Fitzpatrick's week-late St. Patty's Day party tonight). If you look at the DEO Daily data chart for March, you'll see the higher cycle high for the share price, but a negative divergence with RSI, which came in with a lower high.

Unquestionably the DEO gains of the previous four weeks (leading to St. Patrick's Day!) need to be consolidated, so here is a good case study for interpreting the nuances of RSI. Think of the post-rally period like a hang-over, where your good sense is a little fuzzy and it's best to wait a while before acting on the usual indicators.

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

IYH (Healthcare) was down -0.61 pct W/W to $64.83. Wed.'s strong gains could not hold the rest of the week.

In spite of the humungous Big Pharma lobby in Congress, I still feel that this is the time that the pol's have to "get spending under control, and besides military spending, which cannot slow in the present circumstances, where else in the economy is spending out of control but within healthcare?... So I don't see broad market leadership in a possible rally coming from this sector at present."

The future here lies in the small cap companies that are tied into innovative medical equipment for an aging population.

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

It pays to watch the big market weighted components. Two weeks ago I wrote: "The big losers of the financial sector this week were AIG (down -2.22 pct), AXP (down -2.04 pct) and C (down -1.99 pct) W/W. Since C and AIG have a huge market cap, the USD lost in portfolios this week was big. If the relatively small caps of the important Dow 30 index are down or up big, I don't pay as much attention as if the C, AIG, WMT, GE, XOM group are moving fast."

Well this week, AIG (-2.02 pct) and GE (-1.62 pct) were two of the worst six performers in the Dow 30. Another financial stock (AXP -2.69 pct) was also down. That made the Financial sector ETF (XLF) drop to 8th best of 10, down -0.66 pct W/W to close at 32.88.

The Treasury yield curve is still problematic for retail and commercial lending banks. Some of these banks are of course also sell-side beasts who love to beat on their clients for trading profits, to the great delight of the shareholders.

But, tell me, where do the shareholders of Humungous Bank & Broker do their banking and trading these days? :-)

Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

How low do you think Wall Street and their friends in Big Media can depress the shares of Intel (NDQ: INTC)? That's the Big Q these days.

I see that Dow techs (Hewlett-Packard and Microsoft) did not fare too well this week as HPQ was down -2.9 pct and MSFT down -1.8 pct W/W). They were two of the worst 5 Dow performers, mostly on account of Microsoft telling the world that the new operating system Vista is nowhere on the horizon " just like a couple recently dismissed Vista executives who embarrassed the heck out of Steve Ballsy, who had a week earlier told Financial TV that the product would be out on time.

But that's why I call it Financial Entertainment TV.

And to set the record straight, I don't care for Microsoft products or the stock, but that's due to the Law of Big Numbers, not the people. I actually think Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer are amazing people. And I don't think Sergei and Larry could carry their jockstraps " even with a willing supporter in Jim Cramer.

And the irony is that while I don't care for the mistake-prone Google management, I do love their products.

And I'm wondering whether the geezers who run the S&P 500 are actually thinking that GOOG will shoot that index to the stars, or take it underwater like the Barron's cover story ship cartoon.

After the S&P 500 news release at the pre-open on Friday, GOOG shot up +$24 to close at $365.80. I still think the 2Q06 over/under on GOOG is south of Thursday's $342 close. Costs are rising, revenue growth is hitting the Law of Big Numbers, competitors are encroaching, interest rates are rising, the economy appears to be slowing, yada yada.

And to set the record straight on Google, my enthusiasm for the technology potential of the Company in a digital video universe is growing all the time. I think Google is trying to recruit every genius who could challenge the Dynamic Duo in a game of electronic poker (oh, wasn't that an interesting acquisition), but really, Google is best to become a bank, and use their currency to buy every small entrepreneurial firm they can, and give them stock and share warrants for performance incentives.

Sergei and Larry can understand the young mindset of their peers, unlike cranky old men like Bill and Steve. So, without commenting further on the GOOG stock, I think that's where the Company's future lies.

Having said that, I'm keen to see the new Google Finance. I think Yahoo did an awesome job in this space, while Microsoft totally missed the mark, so let's hope Google pushes Yahoo to further excel because then all traders will be the better for it.

Back to semiconductors, it's still chip and dip as far as I see it, despite the sector ETF ranking this week. I take that as a false rally on the hopes that the Elaine Garzarelli capex story has a life.

And speaking of Elaine, why did a couple of my readers diss her? Think about this: while being paid $2 million plus a year in the mid-80's through the mid-90's at Lehman Bros, Cousins, Aunts and Uncles, Elaine was picked by the buy-side Wizards of Wall Street as the number one market timer " not once or twice, but 11 years in a row.

Elaine could be a lizard (she's not!), but why question that truly remarkable feat. Nobody ever did it before, and won't ever again. She deserves a Hall of Fame seat from St. Peter when she gets to meet him. I wish I was in the same league.

Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The Telco sector ETF (IYZ) had a small weekly gain of +0.23 pct, closing Friday at 25.89. The Dow components Verizon (NYSE: VZ +1.6 pct) and the new AT&T (NYSE: T +1.4 pct) led the charge this week, but the big telco story was a potential $33 billion amalgamation between Alcatel (NYSE: ALA) and Lucent (NYSE: LU).

I don't know. You put two so-so companies together and what do you have? A good one?

I doubt it. But you do have more skilled workers looking for work.

A trader's best friends in this sector are either in (i) wireless (without the fixed-line) in emerging economies, or (ii) small cap companies that are developing innovative new digital voice-data technologies. If the big guys might double in the next couple years (which is unlikely), some of these small caps will move up ten-fold (which is in fact likely).

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

In the past several weeks I have been reminding you about the Rat Catcher, in the form of rising interest rates.

I don't like interest-sensitive XLU (Utilities sector ETF) when rates are rising. This was another bad week for XLU as it dropped -2.05 pct to 31.49.

As I see it, the hot money that chased these stocks for several years will be switching increasingly to bonds as yields rise, so where is the push going to come from?

I suppose the economy could slow or go recessive, which would push bond prices up and yields down, but the offset of that is that such an economic environment is not good for utility company earnings. So at this point it is a question of choose your poison. I'd avoid any poison.

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

XLU (Utilities) was down -0.71 pct W/W to $32.30.

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Bonds:

A lot was talked and written about bonds this week, but maybe I'm blind. I don't see where the action was.

Oh sure, there was a modest switching out of the short-end into the long end, but it didn't seem like any big deal to me.

What I did see was that the spread between the 4.66-pct 10-year and the 4.71-pct 2-year U.S. Treasury went negative (-5 basis points) like it had been through February until the end of the first week in March before recovering a bit.

That inversion has to hurt the lending banks, and the XLF (Financial sector ETF) did dip -0.7-pct on the week despite huge profits gains from Humungous Bank & Broker.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.52	4.54	4.50	4.43
6 Month	4.60	4.62	4.59	4.51
2 Year	4.71	4.77	4.63	4.67
3 Year	4.66	4.74	4.63	4.64
5 Year	4.65	4.73	4.61	4.56
10 Year	4.66	4.73	4.67	4.52
30 Year	4.69	4.75	4.71	4.48

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.45	3.43	3.43	3.34
2yr AAA	3.45	3.45	3.43	3.35
2yr A	3.57	3.57	3.51	3.34
5yr AAA	3.57	3.57	3.55	3.47
5yr AA	3.61	3.60	3.58	3.49
5yr A	3.65	3.62	3.62	3.54
10yr AAA	3.83	3.82	3.79	3.72
10yr AA	3.81	3.79	3.77	3.70
10yr A	4.01	3.95	3.94	3.80
20yr AAA	4.19	4.18	4.14	4.07
20yr AA	4.16	4.15	4.12	4.09
20yr A	4.29	4.20	4.16	4.19

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.08	5.15	5.03	5.04
2yr A	5.17	5.23	5.14	5.10
5yr AAA	5.19	5.21	5.14	5.07
5yr AA	5.25	5.33	5.24	5.14
5yr A	5.29	5.37	5.28	5.18
10yr AAA	5.52	5.52	5.56	5.36
10yr AA	5.48	5.55	5.51	5.33
10yr A	5.54	5.59	5.53	5.35
20yr AAA	5.84	5.81	5.85	5.66
20yr AA	6.11	6.11	6.25	5.88
20yr A	6.07	6.10	6.06	5.84

Interest rates and bond yields.

The U.S. bonds had a quiet week notwithstanding a rocket launch on Friday morning. Look at the Hourly data charts to see that picture.

The Lehman 20+-year bond ETF (TLT) was up on the day +0.80 pct (actually in about two hours), but only up on the week +0.35 pct. The afternoon Friday did not have more buying that I could see.

Maybe the distinguished VIP's from China did not bring Yuan to the White House as promised? LOL.

US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

The interest-sensitive Consumer Finance stocks had a very mixed week. CIT was down -1.7-pct, Countrywide Financial (CFC) up +0.3-pct, Fannie Mae (FNM) up +1.4-pct, Fredie Mac (FRE) down -1.3-pct, and Sallie Mae (SLM) down -3.4-pct (ouch!) W/W.

Maybe Sallie missed some payments from those students on Spring Break. Oh those were the days. I remember going to Ft. Lauderdale's Elbow Room in the 60's -- apparently they made a movie of us :-) -- and then having to sell my blood (juice and all) for $50 at the local hospital to raise the scratch to get back to Canada. Then a group of three of us got paid to drive a snowbird's car north to Pittsburgh.

Interesting that one of my pals became Chief Legal Officer at a big tobacco company and later PPG, and the other became a senior audit partner with KPMG in Toronto, responsible for Ken Thomson's private company.

Yes this was the crew that slept and ate free in the hospitality suite of the International Railroad Workers Union at a Miami convention, and hopped a gambling junket to Freeport's El Casino as a gift from somebody who didn't want us to use the Union hospitality that night.

I think about these things whenever the word ‘student' comes to mind.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities:

It took until Thursday afternoon and especially Friday for Commodities to burst out and enjoy gains on the week.

The $CRB index ended the week modestly higher at 326.98, up +0.35 pct W/W. It was a little oil and a lot about metals.

My thinking here is that if the new housing market does not continue to show strength (rather than collapsing -10.5 pct M/M for Feb), the inverted yield curve could be a portent of recession/deflation. That means more money printing to hold interest rates down.

But more money is not going to stop hot money owners of under-performing real estate investments from selling, and that situation could start a run on house sales, mortgage foreclosures, bankruptcies, and so on. All more money can do is to hold the fort; every fort that is except Ft. Knox.

Gold prices will rally, and then the Admin or the Fed, whomever keeps the keys to the nation's gold, will be selling into strength.

But a funny thing happens at times like this: other people/nations/goldminers etc do not sell their gold. They buy more, and add to the problem of the authorities in America.

Every person for themselves, right?

So there is this oddball situation shaping up " which I called some time ago " where prices for houses fall, the economy slows, but gold and the metals continue to rally. That's because of the hoarding effect, when buyers actually buy to hold (anticipating higher prices ahead).

Oil? That's a different story. Oil is a consumable that is not easily stored, so any pullback in the economies of Europe and the USA will keep the price of oil from rallying too far. If the $USD were to drop -10-pct, it is unlikely $WTIC would counter-rally by more than +10-pct, unless the economy strengthened.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Crude oil futures (the near contracts know as $WTIC) rallied just +0.09=pct W/W to 64.26. Let's call it flat on the week, but solid gains of Thursday and Friday were needed to pull that off.

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

A week ago I wrote: "If there ever is a WW3, can you imagine how valuable the western Canadian tar sands would be?"

I suppose my timing as impeccable, but I haven't looked to see. Besides this is a long-term play.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Gold:

I never wanted to turn this blog into one for gold bugs. You'll hate me when I go negative.

But don't worry about that for a while. If you recall, it was just March 11 when I wrote: "A week ago, I wrote: "$GOLD initially traded up just +$3.32 (not the $10 that I had forecasted), and then plunged -$34.38 from the intraweek high to a 2006 low of $534.20, closing Friday at $541.95, down -$23.31 W/W; Some people are even calling it the end of the precious metals rally. Bill Cara is not; In fact, Bill Cara is calling that $534.20 for $GOLD the low for all of 2006; I then proceeded to give you all the yada yada that so-called experts were telling you were signaling bad things for gold and the other precious and base metals. And then I asked you to stop listening to those jerks."

Don't you remember me down at PDAC on the Thursday morning calling for an end to the crash " right in the middle of it. I felt like someone would start calling me Chief Catches Falling Knives.

I even put out another one of those headline articles again: "Gold will rally here".

And it did.

How did I know? The truth is I didn't. I just am lucky enough to guess right nine times in ten. LOL.

No, no, there's no guessing allowed in this game. Even "MarkM" is starting to get the hang of it. It just took me 20 or 30 years before I got to understand the game, and "MarkM" is now up to speed in a few months.

My time here is obviously paying off.

This week, thanks to a solid Friday, $GOLD was up +1.06-pct to close at 560.10. The next stage of this rally is 575. To get through that number will take a stronger Rupee and Yuan, I think, but at least Ben Bernanke seems to find himself without options.

It seems that every incoming Fed Governor has the same problem. But that's life too. The moment of birth is always tougher on you than the one at death.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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And speaking of "MarkM", how about that fella (I presume) "GorillaFinger" who exactly two months ago commented on my call to buy the silver stocks at those low prices by reminding us not to forget Silver Wheaton (SLW @$5.84), Western Silver (WTZ @$13.98) and Mine Finders (MGN @$6.32).

SLW is up to $11.26 (+92.8-pct), WTZ to $20.92 (+49.6-pct), and MGN to $8.30 (+31.3-pct), which just happens to be an average gain of +57.9-pct in 60 days.

Meanwhile more bloggers are tuning in to see what this is all about. Earlier this week, my web stats for March already exceeded my best month, which was February.

This week $SILVER closed at 10.73, up +3.77-pct.

Two weeks ago (WIR #10), March 11, here is what I wrote about $Silver:

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" The Silver Crazies continue to show their indomitable spirit. Take a look at the PPO Price Oscillator for $SILVER versus $GOLD. You might say that last Monday and Tuesday, the Fed Open Market Operations team did little to dampen the enthusiasm of this resolute group of traders; As for the week, $Silver (Silver index based on the near futures contracts) was down -$0.26 (-2.55 pct) to $9.95. The high was $10.28 on Friday.
That loss was minimal compared to the prior week's gain of +4.6 pct; Silver remains the strongest of the precious metals complex."

From $9.95 to $10.73 in 14 days will do wonders to the junior silver miners.

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

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Platinum had a great week, with $PLAT going up +1.93-pct to close at $1,058.50.

Like I wrote about the junior zinc stocks this week " not because I like coming in late " there are junior platinum stocks that the promoters will rally to extreme heights in this cycle. Nimble traders can do very well, but most of you ought to forget them because you may be disappointed if you don't track them by the hour.

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

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The big move in precious metals this week was in Palladium. $PALL jumped +4.62-pct to close Friday at 334.05. Friday alone it was up +3.36-pct!

$PALL has almost doubled since September. Traders who don't understand the supply-demand characteristics of the metals market are leery. But this rally is for real.

It was just a long time company. After all, there was a long cycle of 20 years where financial assets were favored over commodities. The commodities, especially the precious metals, are trying to catch up. And they will.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER jumped +1.54-pct this week, to close at 238.95. It wasn't so long ago that young analysts on Wall Street thought we'd never see $200 copper contracts. It takes a lot of copper, steel, and other metals to build new cities in China and India.

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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At ROBTV late on Friday, U.S. Gold's Robt McEwen was talking to the hosts about why he believes gold is going much, much higher. You can catch the replay " for this weekend only.

To spot the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, as follows:

AAUK NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners:

SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

And a link to read: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=sil+asm.v+cde+fsr.to+hl+paas+ipoaf.pk+ssri&d=t

This week the U.S.-listed goldminers index ($XAU) was up +1.26-pct to 133.40. Friday was a solid day, going up +2.59-pct.

Let's leave this until Monday morning to see if the final hour of the week is a portent of things to come. You might want to check out the 15- or 60-minute charts to see what happened in that final hour Friday.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminers also had a solid week thanks to Friday. XGD was up +1.46-pct to close at 69.50, but on Friday it was up +3.09-pct.

Look at the final hour on Friday!

Here are the Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

XGD Hourly data:

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Forex:

The trade-weighted USD which is shown as $USD, which we used to call the Morgan Dollar, was up strongly on the week thanks to Bernanke early in the week giving indications he was going to be a hawk.

So much for talk. The weak hosing data cooled that, and the $USD had a real tough Friday.

$USD was up on the week +1.24-pct to 90.04, but down Friday -0.42-pct.

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

The Euro (priced in USD) dropped on the week -1.30-pct to 120.34. But Friday, it was up +0.59-pct.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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International Equities:

All three of the Japanese, UK and Canadian markets (priced in USD) were moderately higher on the week.

EWJ, which is the U.S. ETF for the Japanese equity market was up +0.64-pct W/W to 120.34.

The Nikkei 225 at 16,560.87 seems to have held its support level at this new trading range.

An encouragement is the indication that the China Yuan will rise, which significantly helps the Japanese durable goods and steel exporters who sell into China.

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

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Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The EWU (U.K. equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up +0.25-pct W/W to 20.45.

EWU has a rising trendline and a positive RSI on the Weekly Data chart.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up +0.34-pct W/W to 23.60. This was mostly due to Thursday and Friday moves in oil and metals.

The Toronto Stock Exchange index in Cdn Dollars hit an all-time high this week.

The highlight of the week, perhaps, was Canadian icon doing an IPO, valuing the company (now trading under the ticker THI) at about C$6.8 billion. Who woulda thought it possible?

But Wendy's is still holding about 83-pct of the THI stock and will be selling a lot this year, so there is what is referred to as market overhang. Didn't hurt GOOG, but may THI.

The Company, by the way, is arguably the best managed of any Canadian company. This story is not about warm donuts. The brand is as much about culture in Canada as say the Toronto Maple Leaf hockey team, and even got its name from founder and Hall of Fame (1977 inductee) hockey great (Toronto and Buffalo) Tim Horton.

As a hockey player, Tim Horton was the archetypical Canadian " a bull in a china shop. He died in a single person car accident after a game in Toronto on the return trip to Buffalo. The Company's first franchisee, however, was the brains behind their success, and he chose his employees with great care.

Today, as a commercial brand, Tim Horton's (Roll-up the Lip, and Double-double) is a stronger name in Canada than American Express, Coca-Cola, Apple or Disney. Now traders have to see if the Company roll-out can succeed in the Starbucks market. I think it can.

I would hold off on the stock though " at least after Wendt's gets to sell some of its shares.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

There was almost dead calm in the large cap U.S. stocks this week. The Dow 30 was absolutely flat W/W. The Nasdaq was up +0.27-pct and the S&P 500 was down -0.33-pct.

The big story here is in the U.S. small caps, which were up +1.04-pct this week. As long as the Administration and the Fed are pouring new money on a possible deflation fire, it's rather like 1999 " one more rally, maybe two.

Unfortunately it is going to take more than smoke and mirrors (i.e., share buy-backs) to pump the equity market higher. Absolute earnings growth and unit sales growth is needed to sustain high prices.

Sure there is a capex story. That's obvious when factory capacity utilization rates are stretched. But where is the consumption? Hasn't it moved away from the U.S. to China and India?

And who says that the Chinese and Indian consumers are going to buy American? I mean even Americans are buying Japanese products because they work properly and look great.

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change. There were 17 Dow stocks up, and 13 down on the week.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
GM	22.65	0.65	2.95%	7.19%	4.52%	13.31%	19.84%	20.29%	-27.10%	-22.70%
WMT	48.19	-0.35	-0.72%	3.21%	6.31%	6.03%	4.24%	-0.31%	11.55%	-4.88%
MMM	76.80	0.03	0.04%	2.69%	6.19%	3.91%	-2.92%	-2.29%	5.86%	-9.94%
JPM	42.10	0.06	0.14%	1.69%	2.36%	1.06%	4.75%	4.44%	23.57%	20.53%
VZ	34.97	0.25	0.72%	1.63%	2.28%	3.43%	15.11%	14.73%	8.74%	0.60%
T	27.37	0.37	1.37%	1.37%	0.51%	-0.73%	10.76%	11.12%	15.15%	17.47%
MRK	36.05	-0.15	-0.41%	1.15%	3.71%	2.71%	10.08%	11.96%	30.52%	13.12%
BA	78.73	0.83	1.07%	1.13%	5.27%	5.95%	11.93%	10.13%	24.57%	38.61%
C	47.81	0.04	0.08%	0.84%	1.75%	2.05%	-3.00%	-2.90%	5.68%	7.39%
UTX	59.28	0.53	0.90%	0.82%	2.53%	0.66%	4.86%	3.49%	14.66%	16.30%
HD	43.12	-0.69	-1.57%	0.37%	4.53%	3.58%	4.56%	3.68%	11.91%	13.38%
INTC	19.60	-0.10	-0.51%	0.31%	-1.26%	-3.73%	-23.35%	-24.53%	-19.61%	-15.44%
XOM	61.17	-0.08	-0.13%	0.20%	3.36%	1.24%	4.62%	7.15%	-4.24%	3.61%
IBM	83.41	0.21	0.25%	0.13%	2.26%	4.13%	1.65%	-0.08%	6.94%	-8.04%
JNJ	60.39	-0.42	-0.69%	0.08%	2.29%	4.55%	-2.01%	-1.18%	-5.63%	-11.31%
DD	42.55	-0.42	-0.98%	-0.02%	4.03%	5.53%	-1.18%	-1.07%	9.72%	-16.54%
KO	42.66	0.25	0.59%	-0.30%	-0.26%	1.02%	4.30%	3.67%	0.73%	3.54%
PG	58.74	0.09	0.15%	-0.61%	-5.64%	-4.49%	-0.07%	-0.24%	3.52%	11.67%
HON	42.45	-0.07	-0.16%	-0.72%	0.74%	2.34%	13.32%	11.86%	13.26%	14.21%
MO	72.94	0.19	0.26%	-0.83%	-1.25%	0.68%	-2.72%	-4.09%	1.43%	14.47%
AA	29.83	0.31	1.05%	-0.93%	2.05%	-1.09%	-0.23%	1.29%	22.15%	-1.75%
CAT	75.50	-0.76	-1.00%	-0.96%	6.41%	3.85%	30.62%	29.04%	28.14%	61.36%
MCD	34.70	0.16	0.46%	-1.14%	0.14%	-1.81%	3.52%	0.43%	6.31%	9.88%
PFE	26.02	-0.13	-0.50%	-1.40%	-0.23%	-1.33%	9.42%	8.60%	4.58%	-0.57%
GE	33.95	-0.17	-0.50%	-1.62%	0.89%	2.44%	-4.01%	-4.15%	1.65%	-4.98%
MSFT	27.01	0.14	0.52%	-1.78%	-0.59%	1.43%	0.63%	1.39%	6.89%	11.24%
AIG	67.43	0.27	0.40%	-2.02%	-0.33%	0.69%	-3.15%	-0.98%	12.27%	21.26%
AXP	53.18	0.08	0.15%	-2.69%	-1.94%	-3.08%	1.14%	1.66%	-6.54%	5.77%
HPQ	33.17	0.17	0.52%	-2.90%	0.55%	3.59%	15.29%	15.29%	16.51%	67.44%
DIS	27.45	-0.07	-0.25%	-4.16%	-2.52%	-1.89%	12.50%	13.10%	18.22%	-1.08%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into your browser and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

After you bring up the list, click on the Performance tab. To sort for the relative price performance for any recent period, you just need to click on the column header of the period that interests you.

The Dow 30 winners this past 5 days:
GM, up +7.19-pct
WMT, up +3.21-pct
MMM, up +2.69-pct
JPM, up +1.69-pct
VZ, up +1.63-pct

The Dow 30 losers this past 5 days:
DIS, down -4.16-pct
HPQ, down -2.90-pct
AXP, down -2.69-pct
AIG, down -2.02-pct
MSFT, down -1.78-pct

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

This week's new Value Line report for the Dow 30 components is Boeing (NYSE: BA). I listened to an interview this week with the CEO of Airbus maker EADS, who stated that his company was doing ok in commercial aircraft against its Boeing competitor but that Boeing had a clear advantage in being able to rely on the profitability of its military aircraft manufacturing, so EADS would be looking to acquire one. I'm wondering if it would be U.S. or European?

(BA) (BA) (Here is the Mar. 24 Value Line report on BA: next one is due Jun. 23)

Wrap up:

I apologize for all the typos and missed edits in last week's WIR, but my day started with an ocean swim, then hour walk on a gorgeous beach, then breakfast with the CEO of Hutchison Whampoa Bahamas at his Our Lucaya resort, then private plane to Miami, then Air Canada to Toronto, arriving home for a late dinner. I never got to my WIR until late at night. This week was a little better I think. All but for the thoughts of my late friend Peter Kugler.

On a positive note, my favorite country singer Lee Ann Womack will be at CasinoRama north of Toronto April 21-22. Partner, I hope you dance.

BCara@BillCara.com