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March 7, 2006
PDAC Day 3, Tues. Mar. 7, 5.34 PM
As you know I have been recommending the Toronto Stock Exchange's Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) for the Goldminers Index (TSX: XGD). Within a week there will be a new ETF for the Goldminers, and I'll be recommending it, particularly in the upcoming precious metals rally that I believe is going to be a blockbuster.
GDM is presently the AMEX index, but within days it will be approved to trade as an ETF, according to Pat Donnelly, Director, Issuer Services, for the American Stock Exchange.
Trust me, GDM will be hot. I'll write it up this weekend. And nobody I know here at PDAC, including at least ten brokers I know personally, and who are very senior in the industry, had any knowledge of this. They all agreed it would have an impact.
Another situation I'll write up later this week will be Alamos Gold (TSX: AGI), which you know I first brought to you in this blog just over a year ago when the stock was about one-third of its current price. I dropped by the booth and had a photo taken with John McCluskey (see below).
There are very many "hot" junior stocks here at this show (which I'm eager to tell you about), but traders new to the game have no further to go than to Alamos Gold. Trust me on that one too. I think you should go to the website and learn all you can asap.
This game isn't too hard to figure out once you understand how trends and cycles work. For the first couple years of the new bull cycle, traders ought to be buying the seniors. Then the next wave up, they ought to switch to the mid-caps.
But this long-term cycle is, in my opinion, ready to explode to the upside, and the best risk/reward ratio by far is in the juniors. I'll explain why this weekend.
But that's why I came here -- to get you a trading list. I'm just breaking the Cara Rules by telling you now that TSX:AGI and AMEX:GDM (when it starts trading) will be at the top of the list.
The commodity prices are being pushed down now before the next monster rally in order to shake out the so-called "weak hands". I'll try to time the perfect entry for you, but, regardless, I'll be in early and it's going to be quite a ride.
One final thought for the day is that this sell-off in gold might be part of the set up by the Funds to buy the GDM. So please try to understand what is going on here -- it's of major significance. I'll discuss this matter on Thursday.
A second final thought: the Silver ETF is not even close. Somebody is holding it back until after the precious metals rally starts. That way they get to buy a lot of silver at more attractive prices -- before the ETF hits the market. If, as and when that one comes out (a month or two?), $SILVER will hit the roof, and these small and mid-cap silver stocks will zoom.
We're talking gold and silver here. It's as good as money because you can take all this to the bank! :-)

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 7, 2006 05:34:16 PM | Category: 15 Materials
Discourse
Mark M or should it be Mark MASTER:
You framed GFI perfectly with your 9:36AM post yesterday Thanks. (this is no BS).
Posted by: C.Note
at
March 8, 2006 6:46 AM [link]
C.Note-
Every dog has its day. Sorry again about the flaming post. According to studies, email has a nearly 60% chance of being misunderstood, especially as to emotional content. I expect blog posts are the same or worse.
Have a good trading day. Watch out for this market. It continues its internal deterioration. AD line was HORRIBLE yesterday. Lowry's selling pressure increasing. Buying pressure declining. I could go on and on but Bill has said all this in his own clever ways repeatedly.
Mark
Posted by: MarkM
at
March 8, 2006 7:15 AM [link]
Okay Boys, gold down early $9 before the kids in NY have had a chance to get in their seats with their Starbucks. I am expecting a test of $535 to come, maybe not today but soon.
g034, you are expert in this market, what are you seeing/thinking/feeling here? Nice timing, eh?
BTW, I fully expect $600 gold soon so all this is doing is providing me with some cheaper buy-ins. My expectation for significant general market weakness will only serve to strengthen the gold case, ESPECIALLY if Bernanke has to halt or reverse the coming rate hikes. You should see the XAU performance statistics on falling dollar, falling LT bond rates combined with weak economy. You will not be disappointed.
Posted by: MarkM
at
March 8, 2006 9:28 AM [link]
All-
Everyone should be encouraged that the miners are holding up COMPARATIVELY well here, despite the huge sell-off in gold. Buying coming in heavy right now to keep it on this side of this 541/542 line. What's on the other side?
Posted by: MarkM
at
March 8, 2006 10:43 AM [link]
I'm fighting off a hair trigger right now.
Posted by: C.Note
at
March 8, 2006 11:12 AM [link]
Well, wasn't that FUN. Gold smashed. Oil smashed. The whole commodity train busted up.
Here is what I would be thinking in Sydney and Hong Kong. "NY has been in charge of this sell off and every time we boot up in the morning gold is off $5-10 and we have to call our clients and give them the news. Well we are going to take charge for once." That's what I'd be thinking. Now let's seee what they do with it.
Even with the miners sitting at some really good prices, entries here have some definite downside risk. On the other side of gold's Maginot Line is a whole bunch of black box sell orders I would think. Even so, the miners held up and I think that is the silver lining here and maybe the tell that the bleeding may end soon.
Posted by: MarkM
at
March 8, 2006 1:58 PM [link]
We can go ballistic from here(reversed H&S neckline at roughly 546 ). That would take us to 553 level.DOW's rally mode is supportive of that. Also USD looks toppy. Failure will take us back to 540 level to see if the bottom holds.
Posted by: Marp
at
March 8, 2006 3:06 PM [link]
Well, consider me shaken out for the time being. I might get back in tomorrow, but I'm out of the metals as of this PM.
Posted by: Quintsquarry
at
March 8, 2006 3:27 PM [link]
If you are puking gold holdings, you drank too much in the first place (for intermediate term traders). The same game has been played for the last few years and I am guessing that it continues to play the newbies.
The fundamentals have not changed over the last few years - actually they have improved AND the geopolical powder kegs have grown. I have stated my list of fundamentals numerous times in the past.
Re: RGLD
Approaching uptrend support.
RSI 14 on daily approaching 30 (accumulation zone).
There are two significant fibonacci retracements overlapping at roughly $28.50 to $29.00.
When the power downtrend line is broken to the upside, look out.
I am long RGLD.
Posted by: g034
at
March 8, 2006 3:39 PM [link]
Seems gold is still lagging these markets.
Chips are still moving but that could change soon.
Posted by: greg
at
March 8, 2006 3:43 PM [link]
g034-
Agree RGLD! Has stood tall and appears "protected". RGLD leads.I am very close to my accumulates on several miners.
Some of the commodity plays are very tempting here. I am trying to hold buy discipline.
Gold bull continues. S/T direction who knows? Very interesting action after noon (RGLD included) and I am puzzling through it and the action in the oils.
Posted by: MarkM
at
March 8, 2006 3:52 PM [link]
As I noted yesterday (under the user name patrick)gold stocks are entering accumulation areas. The action today was very impressive on a short term basis as they all set new lows and reversed settling near their highs. More backing and filling will be needed to form a reference area, but the fact that these stocks hit their first targets and held is constructive. Although not expected if these stocks took out their highs of this week bullish key reversal signals will be given. The big boys have a vested interest to keep gold weak for a longer period of time, so I would be shocked if these stocks immediately rocketed out of this first area of support. The prudent course of action is to begin to accumulate a small postion via stock or naked puts and reserve extra cash for the final leg down in an ABC correction. As for the stock market, it is way over due for a 10% correction and with the four cycle pointing hard down for the balance of the year one should be short selling rallies in equites.
Posted by: optionoracle
at
March 8, 2006 4:32 PM [link]
optionoracle/patrick/other names?-
Thanks for your input. The more minds working on this the better. The magic words you uttered are "ABC correction". I have been calling for that in the oils as well. 58.50/bbl is my target. Thought the action from some of the oils was very similar to some of the miners today.
Posted by: MarkM
at
March 8, 2006 4:56 PM [link]
bud & tap....liquid gold still moving...qcom closed at a new high...nyx made for some fun day trading...ffiv, chs might be close to getting a bounce.....wag bounced off its spinning top surprisingly strong (too bad i missed wag).... anybody see any nice spinning tops?
Posted by: Bullring
at
March 8, 2006 5:10 PM [link]
anf - looks like it may be worth a stab
Posted by: Bullring
at
March 8, 2006 5:13 PM [link]

Bill-
Thanks for the photos and don't let anyone who calls you "Bill Cara, the political blogger" escort you into a cab for a "quiet talk". :)
Great news about the ETF.
I see gold and oil are weak overnight again.The shorts will be motivated today to find those stops.
Best,
Posted by: MarkM
at
March 8, 2006 6:29 AM [link]