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March 6, 2006
PDAC Day 2, Mon. Mar. 6 4:06 PM
By far the best presentation at PDAC I have attended this year was U.S. Gold (USGL BB). Maybe in addition to the quality of the material, there was the small item that US Gold just announced, which is that they have bid for not one or two but four listed gold companies simultaneously.
Now that's style.
This is Rob McEwen's return to the gold business after leaving Goldcorp (NYSE: GG and TSX: G). Yes, it was an excellent presentation. I think it can be seen at www.usgold.com.
If you get to see a video, I'm the bearded guy in the front row.
On my way to the session, I dropped by Goldfields (NYSE: GFI) exhibit, and the time was about 12:45 pm ET. You will know what I talked about if you have been following the gold market closely today.
I asked the three young ladies in the Goldfields booth why their stock had dropped -6 pct in the past hour. They didn't believe me.
After the shock and awe, Cheryl (the one in the photo I'll upload after I get back to my laptop tonight) showed me that positive Goldfields spirit, by saying: "But how about the past several months, huh?"
She has a point, but while GFI is still my favorite of the very large producers, I think it's time to switch out of the seniors and into the juniors and prospectors.
After I got to McEwen's suite (more photos), I chatted up Rob for several minutes, and he too was quite surprised at the hammering the gold market took at noon. In fact he was unaware because his company (USGL), as I said, had just put out a news release where he has bid for four small land holding companies in the rich Cortez Trend in Nevada.
And his stock had popped +11 pct on the news. :-)
He said he now has $100 million personally committed to USGL, and he is still the largest shareholder in Goldcorp.
He told the audience he is happy to have left most of his capital with Goldcorp because he really likes the company, and the stock has doubled since he left. But, I suspect he will be selling and repositioning his portfolio into the juniors including USGL.
So, while there is no production, and there may never be, my advice is to back a winner -- a rich one who has put a $100 million chip on the table.
In any event I'll cover the stock in the future.
As to the many comments I received regarding the public perception that Rob McEwen is forecasting lower prices, let's say that may be for the consumption of day traders. He thinks we will see $850 gold by 2008.
I agree and will be raising my estimates this weekend.
Rob also believes that gold will rise in price significantly higher than $850 in the 2009-2010 period. Reading between the lines, I think he's talking $2,000 plus.
And there again I am going to agree with him. But to do some justice to that statement, I will put together my own assessment and pass it along this weekend.
Rob McEwen ran Goldcorp for 19 years. Gold is his life. He is, I think, the best gold analyst and price forecaster, and the best gold operator, bar none.
If you get into USGL stock, now or after a pullback in the broad market and the gold market, I don't think you will be disappointed. If you go to the USGold.com site, I think you will be impressed.
Last week the company raised $75 million in placements. So the balance sheet is strong. there is no debt. The stock will be liquid, and it will become heavily traded by institutions that are permitted to trade Bulletin Board stocks.
But it won't be a BB stock for long. I suspect he'll list on the NYSE at some point. With that land position, and the robust 400,000 foot drilling program (costing $25-30 million) over the next 2 years, I suspect they'll make a large discovery.
You never know there's gold until you find it, but USGL will be exclusively in Nevada. Why? Because, as McEwen explained, Nevada has more million plus oz deposits of gold than any place in the world.
And if Nevada was a country, it would rank third in the world in terms of gold resources.
So, McEwen knows that the best place to look for it is where it has already been discovered.
By the way, I learned something today -- actually I knew it, but hadn't thought much about it -- that is the reason I will be raising my gold price forecasts this weekend. More later.
And so the risk/reward ratio is now swinging significantly in favor of the juniors, which is why I will be spending much more time on them from this point forward. I have spotted quite a few this week already, but I need to gather the facts, mull it over, talk to a few people, and so forth, before I'd feel responsible giving you the recommendations.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 6, 2006 04:06:05 PM | Category: 15 Materials
Discourse
What timing, Reuters has two (2) reports out on USGL dated yesterday capturing the close of the 6th! How do they do that? (Why is my tongue in cheek straining).
Posted by: C.Note
at
March 7, 2006 9:07 AM [link]
If one wanted exposure to USGL they could buy CGREF, the OTCBB listed version of CGR.v (Coral Gold) for a considerable discount to USGL.
With USGL at 6.45 and the takeover offering of 0.63 shares USGL for every Coral Gold share that equates to $4.06 for shares that are trading at $3.58.
The deal is an almost certainty, although classified as a hostile bid because McEwan has become a Director and Executive Chairman of the Board of Coral Gold.
Nice way to play it on the cheap if you ask me.
Posted by: ardent
at
March 7, 2006 9:37 AM [link]

Dow looks set up for more declines but every time this gets close it snaps back. R. Russell now has a sell signal and that hasn't happened for quite a long time. Lowry's selling pressure index still greatly outweighing buying pressure.
Posted by: MarkM
at
March 7, 2006 6:37 AM [link]