Oil at $62.45 now.
I'm turning bullish(as when I went bearish in the comments in another post last Friday)
FXI and Shanghai will likely head up, though Shanghai was down over a percent today(due to extremely bullish sentiment, which I failed to take heed to) Now the pendulum is switching to the bear side again so I think we'll see a noticeable gain tomorrow.
Gold is doing well after the small slips a few days ago. US gold stocks are still underperforming, but I think that represents an opportunity for accumulation by us. Be greedy(very greedy) when others are fearful.

Bill-

Oil keeps giving opportunities to "sell into strength" as you have mentioned in your last two or three WIRs. I would think that recent highs need to be breached and maintained before you could say the oil bull is running again. They are nearby but not there yet. Since oil is reaching nearby resistance, I would be hesitant to put on a trade from these levels. Nigerian and Venezuelan concerted disruptions couldn't push it past resistance before. Let's see what happens this time. Soon oil reaches its weakest season. Traders will start feeling its approach.

As for NG (stockman), I find it is more highly correlated to the XOI than to the underlying NG price! While the NG correlation exists, if XOI starts moving so do the NG plays. Something to keep in mind.

MarkM-

Well I'm on a little trip through canyon lands and not 'in touch' but... 1) when I look at the historic pattern of crude futures on seasonal charts in appears that this has been a particularly good period for black gold and 2) when looking at the chart for energy equities it looks VERY strong from now through early June.

Where are you seeing the "Soon oil reaches its weakest season" pattern? Is that on a longer or shorter data set? You have me wondering if my source is accurate.

Looking at my account I am not dissapointed at all. Energy holding well, metals also. But we are capturing small gains across various sectors and market caps.

IF the market can continue to frustrate the majority and work it's way higher (in an unconvincing fashion) it appears that energy and gold will go along (if not lead). I agree that if the bear really takes hold GLD may be relatively safer but they may not be taking many prisoners otherwise.

What's this? A form 4 on a CEO buying aggressively at a homer??? Now that's a contrary play. Had to buy a little (spot, staying flexible!). Insider buy activity has been plentiful here... lots of ideas from executives as well as private equity. That makes me more bullish than the charts suggest I should be... but when the royalty is putting it's money down I'm inclined to bet along side.

Speaking of which why are ther NO INSIDERS INTERESTED IN BUYING GOLD OR SILVER STOCKS? In fact other than the titanium play and energy you see darn little interest by insiders in natural resources. Unsettles me a bit.

SPX now up 3.7% ytd. That's quite a start to a year that most of us expected to be weak. Energy, Tech and Tele in the outperform column.

stockman - re "...CEO buying aggressively at a homer???"

What's a "homer"?
******
On Oil, I remember reading not too long ago that the major oil's have a problem when the price of oil is high enough to encourage the lesser production countries (eg: Nigeria, Chad, Venezuela) to contract with China, et al, and thus not renewing their previous contracts at lower prices with the major oils.

Might be sufficient cause for concerted effort by the major Oils to drive the price of Oil back down for a while. Maybe even be sufficient cause for a MOFNAPPT (My Oil Friends Need A Plunge for Protection Team) to be created?

Nah, there's no such thing as a PPT.

stockman-

On oil I see lower highs ahead. One has already been put in on great headlines. Declining RSIs. That to me is noteworthy. If another shortened high is put in I can see the whole curve flattening. Seasonality? It holds until it doesn't. Like this year with the warm weather and what it has done to energy stockpiles. I'll take the reported inventory figures over a calendar. That's my "season". The bloated numbers will depress right into June. JMNSHO. On NG I gave you my research finding on strong correlation to XOI and less so to $NG. (But since I'm not playing maybe I should just refrain from commenting?)

MarkM-

No, you should comment. You have a position- being OUT. I am IN and want the other view. Your perspective is biased relative to your position, as is mine. But putting your thoughts up can help 'both sides' understand the opposing perspective. JMHO

Homer=homebuilder (sorry)

I prefer to think I am half in. I am getting some "sun" but certainly have SPF 45 lathered all over. :)

All-

GFI being guided lower here to $20.50 to 21.50 range. For those of you playing at home, this may be a good flip.