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March 28, 2006

Negative reaction to FOMC statement, Tues., Mar. 28, 2006, 10:15 PM

It is hard to argue that the FOMC policy and its forward statement changed at 2:15pm today. It didn't. Everything said and done was expected. Why then did both the equity and bond market sell off?

My take is that since the market reaction was instantaneous, without tell-tales and stayed negative through the rest of the session, it was not pre-planned, but happened to be a statement from the Gnomes to Ben Bernanke that 14 consecutive raises from June 2004 is enough, and that the market is saying that any more raises (which the Fed indicated would likely be forthcoming) would not be tolerated.

If there is such a thing as Fed-speak, this was market-speak.

It's not that the market is saying the Fed went too far today, but just that a pause in these rate hikes would be appreciated in order to give corporations a chance to catch up earnings-wise. As it is, this quarter's earnings season is not, in all likelihood, to stand up to expectations of continuous Fed raising.

As it is, bank prime lending rates, credit card rates, auto loans, and adjustable rate mortgages, are all going to be raised by the banks since the inverted yield curve is squeezing profitability elsewhere. Bankers know that combined with slow growth in disposable income and higher costs of energy and other commodities, their marginal customers are starting to become bad ones " or at least getting too close to the line for comfort.

So the Fed got a message today. End of story.

Do I think this weakness in stock and bond prices will persist through the balance of the week? Not really. I think the only condition likely to hammer equity prices further down would be a succession of weak corporate earnings reports.

Do I think that is likely? No, not with the superlative consumer confidence numbers published in the USA and Germany. Of course, the bond market will be a crucial indicator.

The 30-year T-Bond yield closed at 4.793, which was up +1.4 pct on the day. Another day like that would punish equity prices this week.

The Dow was just a couple points short of a triple digit loss today, and since it was a reaction to the Fed, I thought a snapshot would be in order.


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Other than Semiconductors being off -1.4-pct on the day, most of the industry losses were unremarkable for a near triple digit loss session. Gold and silver miners were down -2.50-pct, but that was anticipated as a near-term move with the Fed rate hike and tomorrow may be different, but I feel that is unlikely.

By 10:00pm tonight, spot gold had fallen off to $561.30, which is a modest drop of less than -1.0-pct from the price following the FOMC announcement.


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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 28, 2006 10:15:26 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Let's see:
1)Utilities in downtrending channel
2)We're about to enter April-October period
3)S&P breaks below 1300 support and small trading range, if it breaks 1270, it will be very bearish
4)FTSE caught the flu too, broke below 6000 and small trading range. British markets have a tendency to lead US market tops
5)Oil and gold up
6)Complacency (people call Fed rates to peak soon before the meeting) was high, we're going to see some disappointed people.
So that paints a bad picture for the US markets, inherently and intermarket. Break of 1270 for S&P 500 would be a good catalyst to go fully bearish.

Posted by: FirstConsul [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 29, 2006 5:05 AM [link]

Bond Rate Experiences:

You never know what the Yield to Maturity will be buying Bonds/T-Bills, since it's an auction, until you actually purchase one. Last week when I posted the yield amount I received on a T-Bill, there was a follow up by Bill which stated Bond rate sources varied, as I had experienced.

Here is a good example of what has taken place this week in T-Bill purchases:

Last Thursday (3/23) the Fidelity website (where I trade) listed the 3-month T-Bill to be sold this week that had an expected yield of 4.650%. Then on Monday (3/27) Fidelity lowered their expectations to 4.600%, and just before the auction that same day, changed the yield possibility to 4.620 %. The actual Investment yield listed on the certificate I purchased was 4.609% and if you go to the Fed's website the yield is listed as 4.610%. “Econoday� posts 4.495%, which is actually the discount rate. I guess Fidelity gets 0.001%

Consider the 4-Week T-Bill offered Tuesday of this week. Fidelity states on Monday the expected yield is to be 4.670%. My certificate from the auction ended up with a yield to maturity of 4.710% (thank you Ben?). The Fed's website says 4.711% and “Econoday� lists the discount rate as 4.630%.

BTW, the Bureau of Public Debt website provides a good history of current and past rates. If you are interested, highlight, copy and paste the following:

wwws.publicdebt.treas.gov/AI/OFBills

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 29, 2006 10:29 AM [link]