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March 21, 2006

Fisher says U.S. stocks undervalued 39-pct, Tues., Mar. 21, 2006, 12:10 PM

So I'm watching Bloomberg TV interview Ken Fisher, a northern California money manager and Forbes columnist whom Forbes magazine ranks as about the 750th wealthiest person in the world. Fisher apparently manages $30 billion in private capital. He says U.S. stocks are undervalued 39-pct simply because the Earnings Yield is so much greater than long-term cost of capital.

Gee, I guess a year ago the U.S. equity market was 139-pct undervalued, when costs were lower and earnings yields higher. And with a cost of capital at virtually zero, Japanese stocks must be 339-pct undervalued.

When Ken Fisher looked the TV audience in the eye and said authoritatively that this market would keep on moving higher and higher, based on earnings yield, I wondered if we could take that to the bank.

In any event, there were a lot of people who bought his story. At the time of the interview, the Dow was flat and a half hour or so later it's up almost +50 points.

Traders seem to want to hear a good story. Apparently they don't want to think it through.


p.s., It's now three hours later and traders have thought it through. The Dow is no longer enjoying the +50 point Fisher bump, but is now underwater by -42 points.

I'm glad my readers listen to me and not some gazillionaire who manages $30 billion.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 21, 2006 12:10:44 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Wow, nice hard bounce off support (59.60) for oil today.Somebody tell me they caught that move.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 21, 2006 1:33 PM [link]

Bought the dips (actually it was dirty downs) all day yesterday. NG basket is alive also.

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 21, 2006 1:41 PM [link]

Like the NG play here or soon. APA, XTO beaten down.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 21, 2006 2:17 PM [link]

Did anyone notice the 4-wk TB auction that just took place was for $26 billion? That was more than all the 4wk-TB's sold for the entire year 2001 and most of 2002 .. and this is just for one week early in the year of 2006.

Did I read Econoday's chart wrong????

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 21, 2006 2:58 PM [link]

C.Note, you read the chart wrong. You are comparing this week's auction with the average weekly auction in prior periods.

So far, after 12 weeks of 1Q06, the average weekly T-Bill auction is $15.4 Billion. Today was very high at $26 B; but if next week's auction is just as high, the average for the entire 1/Q06 would be just $16.2 B, which is less than the average for 1Q05, or for the average weekly auction for 2002, 2003 and 2004.

Nothing to worry about.

In a couple weeks you will be paying your taxes, and the Admin will be rolling in dough for a few weeks anyway.

/Bill

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 21, 2006 4:29 PM [link]

Thanks Bill:

Yeah.. the fed can stop the auctions after the folks on this site pay their taxes.:)

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 21, 2006 4:35 PM [link]