A little more Bill and it's blue sky ahead. Need to get some volume going. Perhaps the Silver Crazies have stolen the thunder.

As the short of gold / long of silver spreaders take off their positions, gold will catch up to silver. The geopolical events known about for weeks may be the key driver for those spread traders taking that action.

Once again gold traders who sold on weakness look like fools and will continue to trade like newbies until they get their acts together. Every successful trader has made the mistake of selling weakness during a bull market, but has corrected the bad behavior (usually created by emotions), so either figure it out or go back to trading the hot dots. Your p&l is the final arbiter.

The break of the downtrend line mentioned Friday by stockman and the firming action of the miners Wednesday/Thursday mentioned by me, plus the numerous posts by g034/Bill/others on funadmentals etc should indicate which direction WE think this is going LT: UP.

I am rounding out my allocation to the goldminers (taken 3/10; 3/24 and today) on the open.

Lest anyone think they have missed the boat here, some of these miners are still trading 10-15% off their highs. Good luck and good trading.

Thanks Mark. In with both feet again.

Bill, I appreciate your posting of sites from which you gather information, such as INO. Such information has allowed me to stay upbeat, despite being away from a Bloomberg terminal.

With this in mind, do you or anyone, for that matter, know of a site which allows one to chart the implied volatilities of various options?

I appreciate your feedback.

g034-

Great point. The unwinding of those paired trades may allow for a better entry point into the silver run for anyone looking for it as well as give a fresh set of legs to gold. Buy weakness; sell strength!

Enjoying the gold/silver ride. I guess it depends on the Fed's statement tomorrow whether gold could test its prior high this week. If hawkish-don't think so; if softening statement-yes.

Noticed Citi switched gears on copper and is now bullish. Dipped a toe this a.m. into what Bill would call a "junior" Canadian spec. miner: Eurozinc Mining (EZM) involved with copper, silver, lead and zinc. Speculative play.

Long on gold, silver and a falling dollar.

So much gold excitment! It would make sense to take some money off the table and wait for a healthy pullback.

Marp-

I agree that this is quite a two day run but what are you thinking is the impetus for a pullback here?

MarkM:

Could this be part of the answer (from Yahoo):

Speaking of commodities, gold futures ($567.40/ounce +$6.90) recently closed near their highest level in three weeks amid some safe-haven buying ahead of the Fed and weakness in the greenback which has made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive.

There are a variety of reasons to speculate that gold could pull back... but sentiment would NOT be one of them IMHO. IF this break in the downtrend holds then we could see the hot money come back as prices trend higher, seems early, but I am assuming the break in the downtrend holds.

I agree with those speculating that the Silver ETF may establish a short term top there- perhaps to the benefit of gold.

MarkM,
Sell strength and buy weakness-it applies both short and long term.Of course only your trading stock not the long term position.

Marp-

But you talked about a "healthy pullback". If you sell your trading stock here, what is the impetus for such a pullback? What is your theory? It doesn't do any good to sell if you don't have a reason that you think you are going to get better prices later. What's yours other than gold is showing some strength here?

Specifically I am bullish gold and bearish silver(so many happy campers ready to be taken to the cleaners).I am tempted to short SLW (11.50 STOP).EGO in gold looks really red hot-reduced and added to BGO instead. It is not a scientific theory just trying to measure the level of intensity and go with cooler heads.Nat Gas is more of a longer term accumulation play right now.

C.Note-

I don't think I would be a buyer ahead of Fed news on that reason alone. That is pure speculation. I think the likely result is that the Fed raises and restates that it will continue to be "data dependent". The rest of the language will be Fed-speak and twisted into whatever shape wanted by TOUT-TV.

That being said I have repeatedly opined that oil is a range-trade here between 59 and 64ish. If it starts to come off and cycle back down and the $USD does its thing we could see a bit of a pullback. I'm not saying that will happen. It's just a scenario. Despite Bill's compliment in his WIR, I don't have a crystal ball.

Hey g034, What the heck do youknow about trading spreads ;)

Hey g034,

What the heck do you know about trading spreads ;)

Uh oh, Bill. g034s buddies have invaded the blog to talk trash at him. Now your site monitoring duties will have to increase. :)

I see gold off $3.00 early. VERY volatile night in HK for gold. Looks like an EKG. Let's see if gold is going to do some housekeeping by going back to fill those gaps caused by the last two days.

Disturbing trends in consumer data cannot go on forever.

"2005 Flow-of-Funds Data - I Report, You Decide"
by Paul Kasriel
March 17, 2006

http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/weekly/

stockman-

Thanks for posting that. I read that earlier this morning and had the same reaction. How does Bernanke deal with all this? I have a mental picture of the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dike while other cracks in the dam appear all around him.

jpatrick - oh, about 10 years making a living at it!

BTW, jpatrick, you got into gold in 2000 as I recall, much earlier than probably 99% of Bill's readers. So; what do you think of the recent action (good to have you commenting)?