Do you favor the individual companies over the ETF?

Keeping eyes open to other opportunities- MDT, STJ, ABER worth a look.

long all mentioned

Keeping eyes open to other opportunities- MDT, STJ, ABER worth a look.

long all mentioned

Bigger gold caps overreact to gold price pullbacks. They act as if gold was trading below 500.Very moody
and never happy.
Small caps are little rockets appreciating the fact that gold holds well above 500. To Bill's list I would add my picks ECU.V,KGI.TO,SMF.TO,BCM.V,RBI.TO.And many others.

If I could restate something I have been saying here for the past two weeks, the charts show THEY DO THIS EVERY YEAR in gold's corrective phase. When it is their time to shine again, they will (I think). The juniors will be, as Bill says, spectacular, especially with gold over $600 as a lot of things become possible then. I can't wait for that new ETF. And Bill's recommendations.

A few form 4's that caught my eye:

3/9/2006 12:26 - AT&T INC.- [T] Filing:
BUSCH AUGUST A III Checked: Director
Common Stock 03/07/2006 P 37,000 $26.51

NEWMONT MINING CORP- [NEM] History
PRESCOTT JOHN B D 03/06/06 2,000 $52.93 7,324 $ 105,860

Most of the buys I see continue to be in small and mid cap.

long T (and VZ)

The juniors ARE spectacular.Once gold goes over 600
the WHOLE sector is going to rock and roll. And probably the mid caps are going to play the catch up game.
ABX (the hedgemeister)looks really miserable today.

stockman - What would change your bias to the short side?

On the buy side, some of the foods and confections (WWY)took off (without me). Looking at TSN, now (too chicken!), but would rather have had SFD.

Remember my comment on PPH a few days ago? LLY was a good ride but am out now. I assume that you are out of UST? MO wasn't nearly as good.

spot-

I am long only. Cannot short. Cash exposure can be high short term but restrictions will not allow that longer term.

UST has done nothing wrong- yet, so I am long. I do trade around positions frequently- scaling in and out based on my read of the chart and my feelings of the broad market and the sector.

Due to a rather large quantity of stops hit this week my cash level hit a high water mark yesterday, taking me near my maximum comfort level there. When I become defensive I generally evaluate each position and establish a 'stop loss' point based on support and/or trend.

Put a few dollars to work today (mostly GLD, some telecom and health) but cash will likely remain high for now. I think the GLD, health care, staples and telecom can outperform the SPX in a weak period so I am alert to ideas there.

The break down in bonds I consider to be a major negative for stocks. If that trend should change to the positive AND sentiment went heavily negative (on stocks and bonds) I would be back fully invested. For now I hold some 'core' large cap positions, playing around the edges and NOT allowing losses to run.

long UST, GLD

Holy Smoke, Bill! I never knew the impact of your site! Someone over at Tyson Foods is scratching his head about now.
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stockman - OOPS. I tend to forget that others have a different time frame from mine for trades. Hope you are still scaling in.

chs...down too far too fast i'm buying here...bud and tap still good

spot-

I have followed form 4 filings... since around 1993 or 1994. I have developed a certain repect for that data and frequently will take positions if I can live with the chart. The chart, the size of transaction, the size of the company, the position of the filer and my feelings about sentiment on the stock and/or sector play into my size and time frame on the trade.

nem ...im getting the this is a buy feeling

lend..closing with a spinner

Bullring- I looked at NEM when I saw that form 4. What bothers me is... 1) it couldn't even come close to holding the opening range- even though gold is strong 2) looking at a weekly chart... it appears to have just broken an intermediate trend line there- the last few episodes it paid to stand back. JMHO, you guys have alot more technical knowledge than I do. I'm still wondering what a spinner is.

lend....btw if it bounces the 50 dma will have resistance...and maybe this market rolls over and there is no bouncing

stockman....spinner meaning spinning top sometimes indicates tops and bottoms.
http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlesticksupport.html

bullring-

Like I've said before, you are an idea a minute!

How about those miners! XAU down. HUI down. NEM off big and the same with RGLD. On an UP day for gold. Checking my charts for buys but I am sure that some are there. NEM looks ripe.

Just got back to the office at the close. This is why LT entries only for me. I can't watch the monitor but intermittently. And I am only interested in commodities. The rest of the portfolio is in and hedged. If this market tanks I am fully protected.

But what a battle shows on the charts in gold today. The gold shorts and longs had it out today over those early gains and the shorts nearly pushed it to zero.

And it is obvious that money is coming OUT of the oil sector FAST. Selling into every rally. On an up day only a few positive readings. The oil sands plays hold relatively firm but they were oversold to begin with.

stockman, if you have to be long can you hedge? Lowry's selling pressure two days ago highest readings since.......1995 (R. Russell).

stockman...most of the time i buy based upon technicals sometimes i buy based upon feeling...for chs and nem these are feeling buys...but nem was down on less vol...lend is a technical buy...hopefully i can hit 2 of 3 on these and use good damage control on the ones that don't pan out.

Gold stocks were responding to DOW movements. Usually it is the gold stocks that lead the metal out of a correction.Looks like gold is going lower.But who knows...

Marp-

If gold stocks are responding to Dow movements what is your thesis for correlation? I have never heard of such. Gold stocks do have an observed R-squared with the S&P500 but it's weakening during this bull run.

It's a logical fallacy IMO to say that two observed movements, though both are in the same direction, are necessarily related to EACH OTHER. They are very likely related to a THIRD MOVING FORCE that is driving both, (to give a quick example) just as the sun sets the orbits of Jupiter and Mars, both in the same direction, around it. I have a thesis on what this was today but I'll leave it at that. Again, JMHO and I'd like to hear your thesis.

MarkM,
This is not a theory just an observation.One way of explaining it could be that gold is still viewed as a commodity. DOW's weakness equals lower demand for copper,oil,gold,etc. And then it is the gold stocks that lead the price of the underlying "commodity". So gold stocks move lower implies lower gold price.It makes no sense once you start looking at gold as money.

I was also stopped on some of my gold miners longs, but still have some of my explore co's. Sentiment towards the miners has weakened over the last few weeks with the reports of rising cost so will have to stick to best of breed/operations. If I go long again I may just stick to GLD and the Canadian ETF XLG.to which is the same only in C$. I agree with Bill, about the significance the new etf could have on the sector.
Looking at the weekly's on gold the corrections for this time of year can last about 2 months so I am not in a rush to add just yet. I want to but just can't yet.

Tommorow jobs # could squeeze alot of the shorts built up in the bond Etfs and maybe even some of the utilities so I would keep an eye on them.

Andrew

I am wondering whether there is a broad commodities rollover here preceding a market downturn. Certainly the charts look very similar. All with rounded top formations featuring lower highs and lower lows.

MarkM-

Can't be short; cannot trade options. Only 'hedge' is alternative asset class- 1) cash, max 25% 2) bonds, max 20% (I am currently 40% combined cash and bonds). Otherwise buying defensive groups- health care, staples, telecom to hopefully offset potential downside in other equities.

stockman-

By long only you really mean long only! Well I'd be 25% cash, 20% ST Treasuries (90 day), 20% GLD, 35% defensive equities as you describe. When the economy starts to weaken and rates start to reverse then I'd switch from GLD into the miners. If I have a guess that will be end of May/June when it becomes apparent to all that the economy can't take any more hikes as its already slowing fast.

MarkM-

Great minds? As said, current cash and bonds already at 40%; GLD at 13% and rising...; as stops get hit those dollars are going mostly to GLD and/or cash. Looks like the miners are suffering from that selling pressure you mentioned along with the energy complex. So I am going in your direction.

stockman-

It's really the whole commodities/metals complex. My charts look iffy for longs. I would be very careful in that sector. There are some thinner markets being held up by the specs but if/when they exit watch out.

All-

Gold weak in London early off almost $2.50. Sets up NY to test $535 if continues. I have a suspicion The Boys may surprise.

Time frame?

Gold lows- 2003 3/10; 2004 5/7; 2005 2/10. I'd say that puts us in the zone.

Miners... 2003 4/5; 2004 5/7; 2005 5/10... looks like they are more likely to follow lows in gold based on the last few years.

These dates are approximate-

Spinners-

Thanks for the def. The term brings back unpleasant memories of a trip to Mexico involving tequila...