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February 24, 2006
Watching TLT as an indicator of equity market direction, Fri., Feb. 24, 2006, 8:25 AM
I was struck by the comment made by "stockman" yesterday with respect to using certain tools (related to sentiment measures) to help in making decisions e.g., the TLT.
"If one is long other than core or hedge positions it would be a good time to review your sell discipline / trigger. If the sentiment rollover works as in the past we should see the TLT break down and resume the weekly downtrend. A channel low target around 87 looks achievable."
Maybe he'd care to delve into this subject in greater detail. I'd like to learn too.
There is something I noticed at the end of the day's trading in the TLT. The price of TLT moved up sharply in the last half hour, while at the same time the Dow 30 Industrial Average was dropping sharply (about 25 points over that time period).
Typically, a sharp reaction in one of these markets will soon bring a similar trader response in the other market. For example, if interest rates or bond yields fall (and bond prices jump) as they did at the end of the day yesterday; there will be a similar jump to stock prices.
But yesterday, the opposite was happening.


Could it be that bonds (represented by TLT) continue north today (against the grain as "stockman" sees it), and that the sharp end-of-the-day pullback in equity prices was nothing more than a Wall Street Slingshot, where traders were loading their ammunition for firing it this morning?
Or could it be that bonds turn south along with yesterday's late day pullback in equities?
Is it stocks or bonds that is the leading securities indicator (LSI) here?
btw, I don't know if LSI is actually a defined concept, or not.
The equity futures are strong this morning, indicating a firm opening.
Let's also watch to see what happens to interest rates (yields) today. Clearly, in the long-run, if rates are going to rise here, it's going to put pressure on TLT and on equity prices.
And gold is up close to $5.00 today, but then over the long-run, you know that higher interest rates and higher gold prices go hand in hand.
In the past few minutes there is breaking news from Saudi Arabia shooting or explosions in an oilfield, so that could have put some pressure on higher gold prices today.
That's another problem; with five computer and TV monitors on my desk, and a beautiful view behind them, I need more sets of eyes. :-)
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 24, 2006 08:25:16 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
