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February 14, 2006
Precious metal markets recover, Tues., Feb. 14, 2006, 5:29 AM
After being smashed later in the day and during the evening yesterday, the precious metals spot prices have recovered somewhat this morning.
After falling yesterday to about $535, Gold (spot) is up +$4.60 today to $539.30. That level takes the price back close to support levels ($541), but it will have to stay there and move a bit higher or else there may be another wave of technical selling.
Spot Silver is up +$0.142, Platinum +$11.00, and Palladium +$9.00 also, as of 5:00am ET today.
Traders who are accumulating precious metals here are taking extra risk, but the key is to stick to the discipline of buying only after RSI technical indicator has appeared to bottom.
Remember, the RSI is a momentum indicator, and as such must be interpreted. The numbers are quantitative, but the interpretation is subjective.
During phases of short-term weakness, the RSI will drop to below 30 or lower. The lower the RSI drops on the Hourly Data series before turning back higher, which is the time to buy, the less inclined I am to buy -- unless the Daily and Weekly Data series are also relatively low.
The key here is to watch all the precious metals as a group, and to also watch how the goldminer share prices are moving together as a group in sync with the metals as well.
Yesterday, right before the second shoe dropped on precious metals, I wrote: "It appears that we have an opportunity to accumulate some of the gold shares. But rather than call it as a Buy this time, I'm going to give you the tools and let you make the call."
The problem I had was that I am spending increasing time away from the market at a time that the markets are roiled, and trends and cycles are reversing. This is a time that good traders make decisions by the hour. Percentage moves are significant, and extreme profits and losses are made. Unfortunately, I am not focused accordingly because I am preparing presentations on other matters.
My observation is that the Fed is likely involved in the past couple days in selling the metals, and pushing out the PR stories that Bernanke is going to be hawkish on inflation and the USD during his first meeting with U.S. Congress. That is a short-term phenomenon. Longer-term, I believe the USD is going to weaken.
On the other hand, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverting and the economic data might be signaling weakness, which would lead to lessened demand. Consequently, the fund managers would be inclined to sell the metals-related equities and buy long-term bonds, which is what is happening today.
So there are arguments that go both ways.
In any event, here is the spot market data (5:00am ET) on the precious metals complex from INO.com.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 14, 2006 05:30:09 AM | Category: Bullion

Bill:
Thanks once again for your advise. The above is now posted in several places for easy access after being hammered in the market yesterday. Why I can't follow these easy steps in the heat of battle is the learning curve and price this novice is paying but hey, I'm better armed today than yesterday.
Posted by: C.Note
at
February 14, 2006 9:15 AM [link]