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February 7, 2006
More lessons from the Chinese Masters, 2/7/2006 7:35 AM
I keep a tiny book close at hand for the minutes I set aside for reflection before going into action. It's called "The Book of Leadership and Strategy: Lessons of the Chinese Masters" (1990, 1996).
It is a 2,000 year old book of sayings from the Huainan masters dealing "with the inner and outer life of the Taiost sages, the means and ends of Taoist wisdom; (how they) attained their knowledge, sustained their well-being, and realized their freedom."
I bought it 10 years ago in an airport, coming or going to The Bahamas.
"Whenever people initiate undertakings, they invariably begin by using their knowledge to consider and assess; only then do they dare to define their strategy. It may turn out profitably, or it may turn out harmfully; this is the difference between the foolish and the wise.
Clearly it is natural to consider wisdom the key factor in the question of survival or destruction; the door of calamity and fortune. Countless are those who have risen up and tried to use it, then fallen and drowned in difficulties.
If you knew how to do what is right, undertakings could be carried out. This is a road on which all the world could arrive.
So, wisdom and reflection are the gate and door of calamity and fortune; action and rest are the hinges of profit and loss. The evolution of affairs and the government of nations are completed only after waiting. Those who do not drown in difficulties succeed; so it is imperative to be careful."
Sitting on a beach in Ft. Lauderdale, these are the kinds of thoughts that occupied my mind.
As you come to know me, you'll see how the words of translator Thomas Cleary are appealing to me: "The Masters advocate a pluralistic yet egalitarian society with minimal government interference and maximum opportunities for individual fulfillment. They also propose a conscious balance between the human and natural worlds, regarding it as so necessary that they refer to this balance itself as divine".
I am relaxing while waiting to be picked up by my host's plane.
It's best that I get back to work soon because my thoughts of balance and harmony are being crowded out by images of Bush 1 and 2 and Iraq 1 and 2 and the commonality of war as the solution for economic problems that had beset America.
I cannot get it out of my mind that Bush 2 is now, at a time the economy is not healthy, talking of illegal wiretaps, and issues with Iran's nuclear industry. In too deep, and getting deeper, while led by Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld who are not noted for their diplomacy.
Moreover, I understand the comments of KN from Europe made in the last article. I was saying those very same things yesterday to somebody down here. Experience teaches " some of us at least.
That's how I see it anyway, and why I read the Lessons of the Chinese Masters to get a wider perspective on life.
Today I'll be heading over to Freeport, where I'll be very busy. Global equities are negative right around the world, and futures indicate lower opening prices in the U.S.
Btw, I was asked yesterday a question that is on a lot of minds. If markets begin to fall " let's say related to geopolitical crisis, what to do?
The simple answer is you prepare yourself mentally for it, so that if, as, and when such an event occurs, you do not freeze up emotionally (i.e., "in extremis"). In situations like this, you have to overcome fear, just like at other times you have to overcome greed.
My point to all is that: (i) individual accounts ought to perform better than large institutional accounts because they can be more nimble, make decisions faster, and get them executed easier, (ii) in a global shake-out, markets fall faster than expected " in fact, Black Monday 1987 was a free-fall; so the earlier you make a sell decision, the more capital you will save, (iii) traders can take advantage by buying put options on long positions and on broad market indexes like QQQQ, SPY and DIA.
Traders can increase their capital in a falling market. Many do. Try to be one.
Gold is weaker by $4 this morning. Don't sell your gold. Watch the RSI and buy on weakness. Events in the world today will continue to drive gold higher in future.
Have a great day; but be careful.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 7, 2006 07:41:49 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
Market faces issues in South America as well-
Unilever, P&G Bow to Pressure From Argentina to Freeze Prices
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&refer=latin_america&sid=adFzURtGNFjA
Chavez Threatens to Jail Diplomats, Shut Refineries
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aOLnBqtbamlQ&refer=latin_america
But Iran is the big one-
Why the West will attack Iran
Posted by: stockman
at
February 7, 2006 8:49 AM [link]
stockman-
Did you note that it all hinges on DEMOGRAPHICS? I couldn't agree more. The entire world nearly revolves around this as it virtually dictates our consumption and spending patterns , our religion and our politics. Demography is one of the specialties in my advisory practice.
Posted by: MarkM
at
February 7, 2006 9:15 AM [link]
To all,
It is not my intention to raise emotions of fear. To the contrary. I believe that if you read commentary from the world's leading journalists, and not listen to talking heads, bloggers, family and friends, at times like this, you can focus on the big picture, with better information, and you can therefore start to make plans while under a semblance of control.
I do believe that the Middle East, including Iran, is a serious problem today that seems to be worsening by the week. I believe that diplomatic solutions are possible and advised.
Unfortunately, we the Lttle People don't know the end game of those who initiated this situation, and having it now take on a life of its own, we wonder what resources the players have to stop the game from getting out of hand.
I do agree with the remark of somebody who I was talking with yesterday who said that the oil money that is flowing into the Middle East in the past year and continuously is so huge that purchasing nuclear weapons is easily affordable.
The stakes of the game have been raised, and as observers we have to keep our eyes open or this situation could hit us before we are prepared for it.
Meanwhile, life must go on.
/Bill
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
February 7, 2006 9:25 AM [link]
Folks-- what do you use to check the gold RSI? Thanks
Posted by: Drea
at
February 7, 2006 9:28 AM [link]
Drea,
I use the gold ETF's GLD and IAU. For RSI, I use Investertech.com and enter these ticker symbols plus the major gold miners like NEM, ABX and GG, and click on RSI on the top bar. I change the time horizons from Weekly down to Daily down to 60-Min, etc, and watch the RSI line relative to its rising or falling and where it is on the chart, i.e., below 50, 40, 30. The lower it goes, the more interested I become for entering buy orders. But I first want to see a reversal in a falling RSI before buying more.
/Bill
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
February 7, 2006 9:38 AM [link]
Regarding nuclear weapons; read "One Point Safe" by Leslie Cockburn.
With over 50 suitcase sized nuclear bombs unaccounted for, they probably already have them.
Posted by: g034
at
February 7, 2006 9:56 AM [link]
Nice books you read Bill. I like Taoist philosophies as well. A quote by Laotzu(which gave me a deep impression) was "The best king does not praise itself" or an equivalent of that.
Met this Irish guy on the net(a forum).
"I'm Irish and living in Ireland. The bank will give $12k (€10k) personal loans, no questions asked. I have friends from Asia who work for minimum wage $8.7 per hour and they got loans, some of their friends just arrived in Ireland 3 months and got loans. The bank is even ringing its account holders and asking them do they want a loan. It's also on TV ads "Bank of Ireland, no questions asked." Ireland has been booming now for the last 10 years, it's one of Europe's top economies, it's in the top 5 or 3. You don't want to know how much real estate is here, go to www.daft.ie and have a look. A 50 year old tiny 2-bedroom house was $40k 10 years ago and now it's over $456 (€380k), it's crazy. Apart from RE the cost of living would be the same as NY not Tokyo. "
That was what he posted. Quite interesting. If what he posted was reliable, it seems the bubble has spread to Eurozone as well, not surprising as the rates there are accomodative.
Posted by: FirstConsul
at
February 7, 2006 10:19 AM [link]

> Experience teaches
Lessons from Smedley Butler
Smedley Darlington Butler (July 30, 1881 - June 21, 1940), nicknamed "the fighting Quaker" and "Old Gimlet Eye," was a Major General in the U.S. Marine Corps and, at the time of his death, the most decorated Marine in U.S. history. Butler was awarded the Medal of Honor twice during his career, one of only 19 people to be so decorated.
Excerpt from a speech by Major General Smedley Butler, delivered in 1933:
War is just a racket. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of people. Only a small inside group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few at the expense of the masses.
I believe in adequate defense at the coastline and nothing else. If a nation comes over here to fight, then we'll fight. The trouble with America is that when the dollar only earns 6 percent over here, then it gets restless and goes overseas to get 100 percent. Then the flag follows the dollar and the soldiers follow the flag.
I wouldn't go to war again as I have done to protect some lousy investment of the bankers. There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.
There isn't a trick in the racketeering bag that the military gang is blind to. It has its "finger men" to point out enemies, its "muscle men" to destroy enemies, its "brain men" to plan war preparations, and a "Big Boss" Super-Nationalistic-Capitalism.
It may seem odd for me, a military man to adopt such a comparison. Truthfulness compels me to. I spent thirty- three years and four months in active military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle- man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism.
I suspected I was just part of a racket at the time. Now I am sure of it. Like all the members of the military profession, I never had a thought of my own until I left the service. My mental faculties remained in suspended animation while I obeyed the orders of higher-ups. This is typical with everyone in the military service.
I helped make Mexico, especially Tampico, safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefits of Wall Street. The record of racketeering is long. I helped purify Nicaragua for the international banking house of Brown Brothers in 1909-1912 (where have I heard that name before?). I brought light to the Dominican Republic for American sugar interests in 1916. In China I helped to see to it that Standard Oil went its way unmolested.
During those years, I had, as the boys in the back room would say, a swell racket. Looking back on it, I feel that I could have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.
Of note, Chapter 4 "How To Smash This Racket"
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article4377.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smedley_Butler
Posted by: Keith
at
February 7, 2006 8:07 AM [link]