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February 1, 2006

Late rally was all technical, Wed., Feb. 1, 2006, 4:00 PM

The equity market rally started at 1:45pm ET. there was nothing of note across the newswire. There was nothing at all on the economic scene. Interest rates/bonds were going nowhere. Oil was slightly off due to the bump in energy inventory, but not enough to set off such a rally here. And metal prices were flat. This was a technical play on capex groups (heavy construction, construction and heavy machinery and aerospace and defense, etc) but nothing to support it.

I put this down to programmed trading, but what goes up also comes down.

The Bulls took their shot at 11,000 and missed. Close but no cigar.

Note the timing of the buying -- right on the RSI 30.


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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 1, 2006 04:01:38 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

I'm waiting to hear the Pisani spin. I figure it will praise all groups that rose and praise the groups that went sideways as holding strong and elude to praising the groups that declined in light of staging a late rally.

I thought JNJ was acting a bit shakey but it had some legs. Stop loss in place. Negative BSX press is heavy. Optimistic analysts are praising JNJ for not overpaying for Guidant. Analysts feel that BSX and GDT both have FDA issues and medical device pricing will shrink. Where is Pisani!

/d

Posted by: dinov [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 1, 2006 4:17 PM [link]

Dow +89, Russell 2k up 1% sounds great...until you look at the market internals. The NYSE was roughly 18-15 adv/decl and Nas about 1-1.

Those are incredibly weak for a move of this magnitude.

Posted by: josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 1, 2006 4:54 PM [link]

lot of people waiting for the ipo on this one.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=310488686950481230

Posted by: Bullring [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 1, 2006 7:15 PM [link]


For the past 3mths the plain GLD etf has outperformed the nasdaq by 3:1 and has even bested the Nikkei (!) (only equalled by the emerging markets ETF). The average individual stock hasn't fared well because the A/D line and summation index are out of whack.

Sounds to me like most know the fundamentals are askew (yield curve inversions in 2000/1998/1990 weren't bullish for stocks), but they'll be able to ride it up and get out when it rolls over.

Posted by: ClaudeG [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 1, 2006 7:29 PM [link]

I meant to say they *think* they'll be able to get out. That may/may-not be the case.

Posted by: ClaudeG [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 1, 2006 7:31 PM [link]

Further to your technical point but in a different light - the first wave of this move in November took us to about the same price level and RSI(14) on the daily was over 70. Next move was over 11,000 and RSI couldn't make 70. Now we're within striking distance again.. but the same RSI reads 57. You get the same divergence, though not as bad with the Nikkei. I think the technical term if it fails to hit 70 is "failure swing". It is interesting to see $NIKK approach resistance tonight with such droopy technicals on the daily price series. And I suspect the internals are skewed because EWJ is underperforming the $NIKK.

Posted by: ClaudeG [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 1, 2006 8:23 PM [link]