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February 10, 2006
Japan equities fall on inflation concerns, 2/10/2006 6:25 AM
Today, the Nikkei 225 index of the Japanese stock market has fallen again (-1.11 pct to a two-week low) after yet another report of an economy that is heating up. Traders are concerned that the Bank of Japan is about to start tightening.
The BoJ rate is 0.15 pct, versus 2.25 pct in Europe and 4.50 pct in the U.S. As Japan and Europe central bankers raise their rates to head off potential inflation, the gap with the U.S. rates will close. That will be a boost to gold prices..
But for today, gold is struggling again. Spot gold is down -$3.55 to $557.60. The near futures are down -$6.50.
I am presuming this is the result of Fed actions to strengthen the USD, as the Yen started to decline following the latest very strong economic news.
Ironic isn't it that good news is really bad news to traders. But, in fact, traders are anticipating the tightening actions of the BoJ, which may see the central bank rate move to 0.50 pct soon.
Normally, this would be a very satisfying bank rate; however, Japanese equity markets are very much over-bought, and traders are conscious of the potential impact of higher rates there. They surely remember the last time that the BoJ raised rates.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 10, 2006 06:26:11 AM | Category: Japan
Discourse
Francois,
I believe that the initial reaction is as you say and that occurs because of central bank intervention. But shortly thereafter I believe that market forces link a lower USD to a higher gold prices.
So a stronger yen (priced in USD) today ought to lead to higher gold prices soon unless U.S. rates move higher to offset the stronger Yen.
Re Iran Euro oil bourse; I have read comments, but cannot believe that a country that has little to no standing in the world financial community, and produces less than 3 pct of world oil (from what I understand), could become an effective commodities exchange.
An exchange needs liquidity. Presently that liquidity is provided by the New York Board of Trade, and other international markets.
I think the issue you refer to is the possibility of having an international bourse that trades oil in a currency other than USD. That's possible -- in fact I'd like to see a gold-backed global currency unit some day that is used to price all commodities.
However, to be practical, the major consumers of oil in the world are quite satisfied that the commodity is priced in USD at present, so there is a small chance a new Iran Euro oil bourse would start, or last long if it did.
I am presently on my way to an airport and cannot comment further. Have a good day, and please feel free to send more comments from France.
Regards,
/Bill
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
February 10, 2006 8:46 AM [link]
All-
The Boys are about to take another run at the 540-45 level.
Posted by: MarkM
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February 10, 2006 10:19 AM [link]
buying right now is at high risk but will produce the best rewards IF IF there is a bounce. i would not commit too much money here but will be buying some. watching ptry here...carefull low vol. stock..i would not recommend buying more than 500-1k shrs....no market orders.
Posted by: Bullring
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February 10, 2006 10:26 AM [link]
Who can tell me where this quote came from?
(Chapter V) … “I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!� he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements – that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.�
Posted by: g034
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February 10, 2006 10:27 AM [link]
Me. "Reminiscences of A Stock Market Operator" LeFevre
Posted by: MarkM
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February 10, 2006 10:46 AM [link]
Boys this is Crash-up on Commodity Highway today.
Posted by: MarkM
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February 10, 2006 11:03 AM [link]
Here's another Jesse Livermore nugget:
(Chapter V) … “And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.�
(Chapter V) … “One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.
In a nutshell; patience and conviction - two qualities of both Livermore and Cara.
Posted by: g034
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February 10, 2006 11:11 AM [link]
Black Boxes losing more money is what it is.
Posted by: g034
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February 10, 2006 11:13 AM [link]
Bill, I'm a bit confused - at one point you said to tighten stops on gold positions, but then when gold was dropping 20+ points, you said don't get shaken out. Would appreciate clarification.
Posted by: dt43
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February 10, 2006 12:00 PM [link]
dt43-
I'll let Bill weigh in on this for himself but I understood his advice to tighten stops was for TRADERS. This is due to the increased volatility we are seeing. For those going with the trend, we just hang on til it hits $850 and above.
Posted by: MarkM
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February 10, 2006 12:18 PM [link]
Japan suddenly showed up on folks radar the past few months, after being neglected for years. Kind of like gold. I don't see any reason for concentrating investments in either.
"Gold is the best form of insurance when you're not sure what you're insuring against" Fred Sturm Ivy Global Natural Resources Group - 2.5 Billion in Assets
I found this gem last weekend. It makes me laugh every time I read it. I'm as confused as anyone on which move is best. There are too many shenanigans on the world stage today.
Posted by: waterboy
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February 11, 2006 2:33 PM [link]

it seems to me that when the yen strengthens gold shows weakness at the moment and visa-versa. Is selling/buying the yen for gold the major factor in the gold price at the moment?
One other question: do you have any thoughts on the Iran Euro OIL bourse?
Many thanks
Love your site
hopefullyme
Posted by: hopefullyme
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February 10, 2006 7:54 AM [link]