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February 28, 2006
GOOG drops -12 pct (-$50) in minutes, Tues., Feb. 28, 2006, 11:34 AM
It seems to me that two or three things are happening with Google (NDQ: GOOG).
First, it is almost impossible during a bull market for a very large cap stock to take a 12-pct haircut in a half hour. That kind of thing does happen at the end of a primary bull market.
Second, there is a realization, confirmed by Google's management, that earnings growth is hard to sustain when (i) economic growth is slowing, (ii) the company's market gets saturated, and (iii) the law of big numbers applies.
Third, it appears there is a campaign underway to take GOOG south: (i) Barron's started the deal, which I commented on a couple days ago (i.e., "click fraud" was "old news"), (ii) media reports overnight about huge selling of insider stock, and (iii) management makes a statement of this magnitude during a private investment conference (i.e., no after-hours news release to aid in fair and proper news dissemination).
Today GOOG plunged about -12 pct in 30 minutes following comments by the CFO this morning.

Yes, clearly I think that the GOOG Plunge is, to a degree, manufactured, and it is also one that is appropriate to the times, but it may be inappropriate to the future. So, here is my take on Google's future.
Over the past few weeks, I am starting to change my views as to the growth potential of this young company. Yes, I said "potential".
Everybody knows how Google has been growing in leaps and bounds. Now everybody can see GOOG getting hammered. But what I see is that Google has been making the right kinds of deals that will lay the groundwork to take on Microsoft (NDQ: MSFT) in future years, in virtually every operating area. Moreover, I think they are doing the right things to assure long-term success.
That's quite a turnabout for me. Now don't get too excited because I'm not talking about the stock, but about the Company.
The Company is developing business relations with Sun Micro and Dell that I think will position it to become the number one competitor of Microsoft for control of the desktop. Two years ago I would have scoffed at the possibility of Microsoft getting knocked off from their XP and Office domination.
Now I'm not so sure.
Google is OpenSource, which will benefit us all; Google is hiring the best young people in the computer world; and Google has tons of cash plus an ability to do more capital raise-up any time they want or need to.
So, I will be watching and waiting for the GOOG to present a long-term buying opportunity.
I think Google has a great opportunity to become the number one player in the convergence of Internet Television, which will drive the global economy for the next generation. Yes, Microsoft is the industry 800-pound gorilla, but Google is certainly no 80-pound weakling.
Hence, I look at events like today, and over recent weeks, for Google, and I hope, for purposes of seeing the essential buying opportunity I want/need, that the stock gets hammered some more.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 28, 2006 11:34:57 AM | Category: 45 Info Technology
i thought this market was going to rally today and it did but all the cars were in reverse....question for discussion......if this is the start of a bear market does the bear bring down the metal stocks too? or inflation drive them up? or the bullion ok but the stocks not? the spot price and chart look good...
Posted by: Bullring
at
February 28, 2006 3:56 PM [link]