« Triple-Digit Dow loss, Thurs., Feb. 2, 2006, 4:04 PM | Main | Asia/Pacific reacts badly to U.S. pullback, Fri., Feb. 3, 2006, 5:44 AM »

February 2, 2006

Gold physicals vs the miners, Thurs., Feb. 2, 2006, 4:56 PM

DJ was asking: "Hi Bill, I'm wondering, would you be able to share some ideas on when and why one might want to hold something that holds physical gold versus gold stocks, in a general kind of way."

Re gold physicals vs stocks, if a miner doesn't sell forward its present production during a bull phase for the metal price, then during that bull phase there is usually more leverage in holding the shares.

But often the shares carry risks that are unacceptable: (i) valuation relative to their peer group, (ii) valuation relative to the physical, (iii) operating costs in country(s) where producing (iv) currency considerations, where revenue is in USD and costs are in domestic currency, so when USD falls, profits fall, (v) mergers and acquisitions where post-deal results are poor due to previous lack of due diligence, and so forth.

I could have mentioned others, like who the promoter/CEO is, whether or not they are doing extensive exploration drilling, the possibility of civil strife near the mines, or labor actions at them, etc. But, really, the issues are relatively few in number for each company, which makes them manageable to the student of the market who takes seriously his or her trading.

Once you target say five or six miners, you can basically isolate most of the key factors, and be watching for possible drivers that may take the stock off in a direction that you were not expecting.

It won't take long, but once you get the nuances down, you'll trade better.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 2, 2006 04:56:21 PM | Category: Bullion , Gold , Goldminer Producers