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February 28, 2006

Follow through on Lyondell, Tues., Feb. 28, 2006, 3:52 PM

On a day of triple digit losses in the Dow, only GM and DD are up in the Dow 30. And how about LYO? What, you say DD and LYO are up, when most other stocks are getting crushed? But did I not tell you on the weekend to buy them? And that was right after Friday's downgrade by Credit Suisse First Boston too, which goes to show why readers come to this blog.

Let me repeat verbatim what I wrote last weekend about DD and LYO. And at the end of the article you will find today's charts of these two stocks.


A week ago I wrote: "The jury is out until next week's CPI number comes out. If it's on the high side, then there will be a short-term reaction down on the XLB (fears of Fed tightening), but longer-term that's a help."

Voila. There you have it. CPI was up +0.7-pct, and the market initially didn't like it (for XLB). Btw the market (you and me) ignored the talking heads who told us "there ain't no inflation".

XLB closed at 31.72, up +0.22-pct W/W, but +0.28-pct was Friday's gain. In a rising inflation environment, XLB and XLE are still the places to be, but you have to look at the components. This week, for instance, as crude oil prices lifted on geopolitical worries, the chemical company stocks got hit (since they have to buy oil to process it into chemicals, and the economy isn't strong enough to pass along the price increases in this particular sector).

So Dupont Chemical (DD) got hammered and so did Lyondell (NYSE: LYO).

When oil prices come down, those share prices will most likely rise. In fact, for a trade, do you see the depth to which the RSI has fallen, particularly on the LYO? This is something you should be looking at.


ScreenShot001.gif


And what does that mean? Yes, you buy. Particularly if, as and when the price of oil is falling.

And, for instance, after the stock has had a terrific run to the upside, and the CEO is making the rounds of Financial Entertainment TV, where personalities like Kudlow and Cramer are bowing at their feet, as in the case of the Lyondell CEO last summer, you take one look at the RSI and say just one thing to your broker: "Sell".


015a001.gif


And now when you see LYO below RSI=30 on the Weekly and Bi-Weekly (which means it is close on the Monthly), you know it's in your Accumulation Zone. Then you swing over to the Daily and Hourly Data series to watch the RSI for a bottoming out, particularly on sharply down days, like the past two.

Before pulling the trigger, you look at all the peer group stocks because you don't want to see the stock you are ready to buy out of sorts with the peers in that industry. Many of these stocks are direct competitors, so they share the same markets and cost components. There ought to be some degree of synchronicity in their trading patterns.

And since the Monthly RSI is still above 30, you maybe buy half, or maybe you write some puts along with some purchases.

First of course, you have to like the company. In the case of LYO, I do; it's on the Cara Global Best 100 list because the company has (i) relatively good fundamental and quantitative performance against (i) the broad market e.g., the S&P 500 or the S&P 1200, and against (ii) its industry or sub-industry peers, which you can see by checking the data at Yahoo Finance (i.e., competitors).

And the coup de gras is to hit that buy (or sell) button right about the time you observe a popular talking head tell the TV or print media audience that (your stock) is extremely bad (or good).

It's not that these people (like e.g., Cramer) are 100-pct wrong (that's not true), but just that when they say "sell" to a large audience and you are ready to buy, they make your job easier.

If you buy, you want to buy into weakness. If you sell, you want to sell into rallies

Is this starting to make sense?


Today's charts:

015a013.gif


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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 28, 2006 03:52:33 PM | Category: 15 Materials

Discourse

Bill-

What is up with the super-spike on both charts at around 2:45pm followed by sell-downs? VERY ODD.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 28, 2006 4:36 PM [link]

>And that was right after Friday's downgrade
>by Credit Suisse First Boston too.

I suppose the people at Credit Suisse are not stupid.

So what's going on here?

Could it be:

Bank decides on downgrade, and preferred clients are informed? --> Stock drops on selling pressure.

Downgrade is made public. Public expects stock to drop further on downgrade, but most of the selling has already taken place so stock bounces?

Posted by: james tarin [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 1, 2006 4:12 AM [link]

Confessions of a ‘wantabee' trader:

I did the research, I loved the stock, followed the charts, bit my nails and consumed the stomach acid on the opening when LYO jumped $.56; studied the charts some more and got so frustrated left the command center and went grocery shopping, stopping by the ‘spirits' store on the way back home. Took another look at LYO and low and behold it was below $20!!!

Feeling like I had the situation in hand figured the buy would probably happen late in the trading period and ate lunch.

Where is my crying towel? When I returned only a few moments latter, LYO had shot up over $21.

I guess I've just got to go hungry to make $ in the stock market

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 1, 2006 5:59 AM [link]

C. Note-

You may get your chance again today or tomorrow. Sometimes bounces like this off oversolds give another chance. Also, LYO at less than 21 is still a good buy. You may not get the lowest price but if you really want the stock not getting the bottom means little when the stock goes to 30 next year. I made the same mistake on AA earlier by not getting "my bottom" and then watching it go up, up and away.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 1, 2006 6:19 AM [link]

Mark M:

Thanks for the support. Yesterday afternoon I was depressed but this morning decided to get back into the battle and the confession and your comments have revived the soul.

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 1, 2006 8:35 AM [link]

C.Note-

Do you have your trigger finger ready? LYO at $20.65.....

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 1, 2006 11:05 AM [link]