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February 28, 2006

End of the month, end of the Dollar?, Tues., Feb. 28, 2006, 7:43 AM

If you've had back spasms or root canals, you know pain. I've got both, which means I've got pain squared. Tylenol 3 helps. Afraid to breathe for fear of more spasms, I'm probably oxygen-deficient, which explains my lack of clear thinking. :-)

But here goes.

Today, there is a ton of economic data out of the U.S. So, today you can expect lots of spin in the market.

First up at 8:30am ET is the GDP data for 4Q05 from the Commerce Department. The previous estimate was of annual U.S. economic growth of just +1.1 pct for 4Q. But the more accurate data coming this morning will likely be in the +1.6 pct range according to Wall Street consensus estimates.

Evelina Tainer of Econoday does a solid job of analysis and reporting, as follows:


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There are three major econ reports out at 10am ET, and the data could go either way, so the trading could be extreme.

The data being watched is for (i) consumer confidence, (ii) existing home sales, and (iii) National Association of Purchasing Managers " Chicago (NAPM).

Will the data be strong, which the Bulls are counting on, or weak, which the Bears would like to see? My take is that today's data might lead to the topping out of the trade-weighted $USD index. But we'll have to wait for a couple hours to see how the market reacts.

Again, here is the excellent write-ups from Econoday:


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Econoday and I are planning to produce some combined reports in the future in pdf format where I add price/RSI charts plus my analysis and commentary where relevant to the economic data.

In case I didn't return to show my geese yesterday, here is the photo I took.

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Btw, the back spasms came from lifting boxes while I was getting the home office ready for the IT specialist who came in last week. Then I was crawling on my knees unhooking and hooking up cables. The computer is now fine, but my back isn't. I can't even say I have been spending too much time lately in bowing to the mirror.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 28, 2006 07:43:57 AM | Category: Economics

Discourse

Bill-

Well, looks like we both had the call on the dollar this morning. What a plunge so far on news. Could the recent trading (very compressed) have been anticipating this?

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 28, 2006 2:08 PM [link]