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February 27, 2006
Dividend-focused ETFs in review, Mon., Feb. 27, 2006, 6:57 AM
This weekend I spent time discussing the merits of comparing interest yields between stocks and bonds. I said that the present dividend yield on the S&P 500 is 1.71 pct and the interest yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury Note is 4.71 pct.
That 300-basis point difference, which is widening by the month, will, if the gap continues to grow, hit a tipping point where capital flows directly from stocks to bonds. Ergo: the beginning of Bear Market 2006.
But if you are invested for income plus capital growth over the very long-term, then you ought to be looking at Exchange Traded Funds that have been built for such purposes.
On Saturday, John Spence of MarketWatch reviewed these ETF's, and the article is worth your next five minutes.
You will read about DVY, PFM, PHJ and PEY. I like the notion of PEY. :-) ; even if this ETF has not had a great February.
I don't particularly like the total return of the oldest and biggest of this group (DVY). Nor do I like the fact that there are no put and call options on it like there is for the other three.
As you know, for income I like to follow the weekly and daily data RSI to where it falls below the 30 line. And then, other factors being considered, such as a bottoming RSI on the broad market indexes, I would write put options at strike prices that are attractive to me. That way I get to either buy the ETF (or stock) at a price I like or I take in the options premium if it expires worthless.
This is a slow but methodical way of increasing your income and beating the broad market indexes over multiple years. Besides, if you are semi-retired " like me :-) " you get to enjoy the intellectual stimulation.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 27, 2006 06:59:22 AM | Category: ETF
Discourse
Bill - Hope the "tooth fairy" left you a little someting.
Did you see this article about global carry trade possibly ending:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/02/24/cccredit24.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2006/02/24/ixcoms.html
If the forecasted doom actually takes place (meaning this article is not just passing "jaw-bone gas"), XLF might be setting up to take a major turn down from its double-top??
Also, if so, wouldn't the etf's that are dependent on "Financials" take a nose dive in price if the global carry trade dies?
Posted by: spot
at
February 27, 2006 10:05 AM [link]
spot - it depends on what the large wall street firms do with the money the fed injects into "their" system. They'll probably buy more of their own stocks, sending financials higher...gee, I'm getting more cynical by the day.
Posted by: g034
at
February 27, 2006 10:53 AM [link]
Bill-
More great hints. These should do comparatively well in any market decline.
I like that LYO dividend at these prices also....
Posted by: MarkM
at
February 27, 2006 11:33 AM [link]
g034 - "..They'll probably buy more of their own stocks...."
That might explain why XLF is up, so far, today. It will be interesting to see if the week ends that way, though.
Posted by: spot
at
February 27, 2006 11:44 AM [link]
March is the month of many central bank meetings. ECB meets Thursday and may boost rates in Europe. The one to watch is BOJ to see if they have the will to raise. If so, that will send a message on the carry trade.
Beware the "Ides of March" may visit the XLF!
Posted by: Seamus
at
February 27, 2006 12:20 PM [link]
ndaq...looking ok
Posted by: Bullring
at
February 27, 2006 10:03 AM [link]