Unfortunately I will have to cut, and possibly eliminate, my writing during this trip because I'll be in indeterminate meetings in a strange environment, and my mind will not be focused on the market.

In any event, I'll take my computer and try to keep in touch. I'm sure that the usual crowd will keep the discussions lively.

The first three days web stats show an increase of +36.5 pct over the average daily visitors for January, and +48.1 pct over December. So, onward and upward! My small world is getting bigger. Thank you for your interest and your confidence.

This week's WIR report talks of bearishness. But nobody knows when a Bear Market is happenig until it has happened.

Some will say that the current indications are of a short-term or intermediate-term decline, and that's the thing about Bear Markets, they start with a short-term cycle phase that is bearish (using Daily data), then that extends on the downside possibly past an intermediate-term cycle low (using Weekly data) and may get into a primary (i.e., full-blown) Bear (using the Monthly data).

For those who are new to the game, you will hear everybody talking "Bear Market" after the RSI on the Monthly data is below 30 and falling, and the %K Stochastics is bouncing off zero, and the squiggly MACD lines are flat-lining the chart bottom.

A Bear Market is like when a car runs out of gas on the highway. Then you know. Until then, you still have a bit of fuel left, but you're nervous and looking at the fuel gauge, while your momentum is slowing. The technical indicators are simply telling you that's where we are today.

But today, there is still some fuel left in the tank, so anybody who tells you they know for sure we're in a Bear Market, can only be telling the truth if they're the one driving the car and they intend to run it out of gas. Otherwise they don't know. Like me and you, all they can do is look to the indicators.

And if these people tell you after we get into a defined Bear Market, which analysts like to say is a decline of "20 pct or "25 pct in the broad equity indexes, then you can tell them hat hindsight works the same for all of us. Or like me, you can just say they're telling lies if they called a Bear Market before it happened.

That's why I say it's best to talk "Accumulation Zone" and "Distribution Zone" because the indicators can tell you when prices are over-sold and when they are over-bought.

Right now they are over-bought, and if we go through a short-term, intermediate-term or long-term negative cyclic phase, they will be over-sold, and that's when you want to be a buyer, depending on your time horizon.

I'm making this sound simple because it is simple. Trading securities is not rocket science. Financial services people often make it seem that way because they have products to sell you or services they want you to rely on. But if you take the simple way, you will pick your own products and make your own choices of services you want or need.

But if you don't look at the markets in the most simplistic way, you will always be impatient. Patience in trading, like life, is a virtue.