Bill Cara: <strong>Tables for Week #01 (2006-01-07) in Review</strong>

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January 9, 2006

Tables for Week #01 (2006-01-07) in Review

Symbol Close Net %Net 1W %Net 2W %Net 4W %Net YTD %Net 3M %Net 6M %Net Yr %Net

SMH 39.65 0.69 1.77% 7.39% 6.50% 3.69% 4.56% 12.39% 14.86% 27.08%

XLE 53.46 1.28 2.45% 6.71% 3.91% 3.69% 1.44% 10.36% 16.27% 51.66%

XLB 31.43 0.37 1.19% 2.91% 4.35% 3.59% 1.65% 19.37% 15.98% 9.44%

IYZ 23.48 0.21 0.90% 2.09% -0.30% -1.55% 2.22% 2.13% 0.09% -2.45%

XLF 32.47 0.19 0.59% 1.98% 1.69% 2.46% 0.84% 11.81% 9.99% 7.41%

IYH 64.60 0.40 0.62% 1.97% 1.41% 4.36% 1.52% 6.11% 5.69% 11.19%

XLU 32.18 0.34 1.07% 1.96% 1.71% 2.78% 0.56% 0.59% 2.58% 18.96%

XLY 33.33 0.27 0.82% 1.46% 0.97% -0.39% 1.00% 5.24% 1.40% -2.94%

XLI 31.78 0.12 0.38% 0.44% 0.73% 1.15% 0.47% 7.58% 8.69% 4.85%

XLP 23.50 0.10 0.43% 0.09% -0.80% 0.60% 0.26% 2.80% 3.34% 2.22%

Symbol Close Net %Net 1W %Net 2W %Net 4W %Net YTD %Net 3M %Net 6M %Net Yr %Net

GM 20.80 0.28 1.36% 9.42% 9.19% -9.72% 10.05% -26.63% -39.22% -47.28%

PFE 24.85 0.27 1.10% 5.97% 3.37% 17.77% 4.50% 0.81% -7.17% -5.48%

XOM 59.43 1.15 1.97% 5.67% 3.18% 0.69% 1.64% 1.47% 0.54% 18.58%

HPQ 30.24 0.84 2.86% 5.22% 5.11% 2.44% 5.11% 12.46% 26.21% 44.27%

INTC 26.31 0.04 0.15% 4.95% 1.66% 0.61% 2.89% 10.73% -0.72% 17.14%

CAT 60.45 1.18 1.99% 3.97% 5.90% 4.62% 4.58% 9.53% 26.86% 29.19%

JNJ 62.60 0.28 0.45% 3.90% 2.83% 4.26% 1.57% 1.67% -2.42% -0.38%

VZ 31.35 -0.28 -0.89% 3.57% 2.38% -0.32% 3.19% 0.77% -8.92% -20.73%

IBM 84.95 2.45 2.97% 3.09% 2.20% -4.25% 3.52% 6.59% 12.06% -11.69%

AXP 52.68 0.18 0.34% 3.07% 0.55% 3.07% 0.19% 5.21% -1.09% -2.73%

MSFT 26.91 -0.08 -0.30% 2.44% 0.67% -3.03% 0.26% 8.82% 8.95% 0.60%

MRK 33.12 -0.06 -0.18% 2.38% 3.73% 9.34% 1.13% 23.44% 8.38% 5.04%

DIS 24.74 0.33 1.35% 2.36% 2.66% -3.62% 1.39% 2.70% -0.20% -9.84%

KO 41.41 0.39 0.95% 2.00% 0.49% -1.87% 1.25% -3.04% -1.29% 0.75%

AA 30.21 -0.10 -0.33% 1.89% 4.21% 5.67% 1.04% 31.86% 16.19% -0.56%

AIG 70.11 0.30 0.43% 1.46% 5.52% 6.37% 0.70% 13.72% 18.55% 3.93%

T 24.93 -0.02 -0.08% 1.26% 1.96% -0.64% 0.89% 30.66% 31.84% 34.03%

MO 75.95 0.62 0.82% 1.13% -0.47% 5.49% 1.29% 4.40% 17.53% 25.52%

GE 35.48 0.25 0.71% 0.82% 0.45% -0.25% 0.31% 5.63% 3.38% -2.04%

HON 37.87 0.58 1.56% 0.74% 0.50% 5.28% 1.09% 4.07% 6.86% 10.28%

MMM 78.63 0.64 0.82% 0.43% 0.74% 1.62% -0.61% 10.58% 7.96% -3.47%

JPM 40.02 0.28 0.70% 0.40% 0.48% 4.03% -0.42% 18.89% 15.66% 3.44%

PG 58.64 -0.06 -0.10% 0.38% 0.21% 2.81% -0.24% 4.30% 11.70% 5.96%

C 48.62 0.00 0.00% 0.08% -1.32% -0.16% -1.36% 7.02% 5.01% -0.63%

DD 42.92 0.18 0.42% -0.23% 0.28% -0.37% -0.33% 13.45% 0.75% -9.47%

MCD 34.06 0.20 0.59% -0.23% -1.10% -3.40% 1.61% 4.06% 22.96% 6.17%

UTX 56.16 0.18 0.32% -0.30% -2.13% 2.48% -0.65% 12.79% 11.10% 11.08%

HD 40.38 0.30 0.75% -0.88% -2.82% -2.75% -2.09% 6.49% 2.83% -2.77%

BA 69.35 -0.98 -1.39% -2.57% -1.48% -0.43% -1.41% 2.09% 7.87% 37.38%

WMT 45.88 0.21 0.46% -3.37% -5.69% -3.92% -0.76% 4.44% -7.09% -15.12%

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Month 3.89 3.81 3.80 3.76

6 Month 4.16 4.13 4.11 4.11

2 Year 4.38 4.35 4.34 4.39

3 Year 4.36 4.33 4.32 4.39

5 Year 4.34 4.31 4.30 4.40

10 Year 4.38 4.36 4.37 4.48

30 Year 4.53 4.51 4.54 4.69

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 3.07 3.00 3.00 2.97

2yr AAA 3.06 3.01 2.99 2.94

2yr A 3.14 3.14 3.09 3.01

5yr AAA 3.28 3.22 3.25 3.22

5yr AA 3.31 3.24 3.27 3.27

5yr A 3.42 3.34 3.35 3.33

10yr AAA 3.69 3.58 3.64 3.66

10yr AA 3.77 3.56 3.63 3.66

10yr A 3.91 3.76 3.82 3.84

20yr AAA 4.22 3.99 4.06 4.11

20yr AA 4.31 3.96 4.02 4.13

20yr A 4.30 4.23 4.31 4.24

Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 4.49 4.49 4.47 4.52

2yr A 4.56 4.52 4.52 4.55

5yr AAA 4.66 4.62 4.63 4.67

5yr AA 4.63 4.64 4.62 4.69

5yr A 4.73 4.70 4.70 4.76

10yr AAA 5.16 5.09 5.21 5.17

10yr AA 4.96 4.95 4.98 5.06

10yr A 5.05 5.03 5.07 5.15

20yr AAA 5.52 5.44 5.53 5.53

20yr AA 5.71 5.57 5.53 5.63

20yr A 5.56 5.55 5.58 5.65

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 9, 2006 07:12:36 AM | Category: Cara Week in Review

Discourse

Darn! Looks like we have to give Bill his site back..... :)

Welcome back, Bill. The Boys were working their magic running up the market while you were gone. Let us know what you think.

Posted by: MarkM at January 9, 2006 7:38 AM [link]

All-

Here's John Hussman's vie on risk/reward from present goldminer share valuations.

"The most important move in the Strategic Total Return Fund last week was prompted by the spike in precious metals share prices, which moved me to reduce the Fund's position in these shares from just under 20% of assets to just over 10% of assets. Last week, the Philadelphia Gold Index (XAU) closed at 139.86, having advanced nearly 70% since its May 2005 trough (see The Sound of One Hand Clapping - May 2, 2005). The reduction in our exposure is not in any way a â€œbearish callâ€? or â€œsell signalâ€? on precious metals shares. Rather, it is always my approach to accept exposures that are in line with the probable return/risk tradeoff in various markets. The recent spike in gold shares took those securities both to more reasonable valuations (itself a reason to clip a portion of our exposure) and to a substantially overbought condition on an intermediate term basis. The reduction in exposure to a smaller but still positive level reflects a similar change in my evaluation of the return/risk profile for precious metals shares here."

Just one view but I know he has a good following.

Best....

Posted by: MarkM at January 9, 2006 8:19 AM [link]

Good morning Bill and welcome back. Also best wishes for the start of the year :)

Carsten

Posted by: Jansing at January 9, 2006 8:25 AM [link]

Rydex PM Fund data-

Last week I was concerned about the jump in my gold and miners so I was looking at the Rydex PM Fund assets to see how much speculative money has moved that way.

In 4/2005 at the lows the assets were 130; now 250; up 92%; and at it's highest level since 4Q 2994... looking ominous.

Welcome back Bill, hope you are tan and refreshed for the New Year challenge.

But then the nav troughed at about 28 in 5/2005; now at 51; +82%; so the move in assets vs. nav suggest that little new money has moved to the fund.

(The charts I get on this are on Sentimentrader and I do not have the data so these numbers are approximate as I read the chart).

This does not change the fact that the shares are overbought whether looking at daily weekly or monthly data. But specs could still come in and spike them higher.

I reduced gold and miners last week from 20% weighting to 16%. A move I may regret but taking some off seems appropriate. These funds were moved to the telecom industry.

Why not jump on the tech bandwagon with cash? Usind Rydex again to gauge where hot money has been drawn: The Rydex Technology Fund troughed in 4/2005 with assets of 20; now 46; +130%. NAV trough 4/2005 about 9.5; now 12; +26%. So most of the rise in assets is not in the rise in nav rather a move in speculative cash.

Telecom on the other hand is a snozze fest. 4Q2004 peak assets 30; now 13; -55%. From peak assets in 1Q2004 assets are -84%.
NAV same periods? Flat.

Posted by: stockman at January 9, 2006 9:00 AM [link]