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January 18, 2006
New column: "Best of the Readers' Comments", Wed., Jan. 18, 2006, 8:40 AM
I have been so impressed with several comments made this morning that I may start a new weekly column called "Best of the Readers' Comments", to run on Sundays.
"Just wonderin'- Do all those U.S. investors who have been chasing mo in the international arena through emerging markets have to pause? I doubt transparency and/or liquidity are better in any of those markets than Japan. If the Japan market can react this violently to these factors, what could we see in the emerging markets?"
"Analyst secrets to maintaining a good track record-
Downgrade INTC before the open. On disclosure history the prior day's close is recorded as your 'sell' price. Does the public ever figure this stuff out?"
"The reason energy should hold a core position in your portfolio:
ASPEN (ResourceInvestor.com) " Boone Pickens, founder and head of BP Capital, founder and former head of Mesa Petroleum, expert oil & gas analyst with over four decades in the field, is largely known for his bold predictions on the oil market. At the Oil & Gas Investor Forum in Aspen, Colorado, Pickens did not disappoint his listeners.
"I think demand and production are right about the same, so where do we go from here?" Pickens said.
In December 2005, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil supply had reached 85 million barrels per day (bpd) " roughly 31 billion bpd a year. Today, IEA predicted global demand would grow at 2.2% in 2006, up from 1.3% growth in 2005.
"There's no way we're replacing it " no way," Pickens said."
"TLT- Headed for 94? If the market gets pounded we could be there pretty quick. Commercials buyers on every dip, lending support. If the curve inverts AND the market's pounding extends on the calendar then I would think we can break through that level. Recession talk will heat up quickly with that combination- a declining stock market will be seen as confirming the message of the yield curve.
At some point the sentiment will get extreme on the bond-bull side and I'll have to scale out, but holding IEF, TLT and STRIPS for now."
"PBR? Too hot for me.
I am long ECA, CVX, COP, CHK, CWEI, JRCC, NBL (15% total). Those that are not parabolic are more comfortable for me (in the event of a market dive).
Don't like the service companies so much- too much heat (see Rydex).
Remember I have a longer time frame and have to hold SOMETHING in the market, always. My current exposure is near as defensive as I can get in regards to equity exposure. After stops get hit today I will be at or in excess of my maximum allowable cash level. So I like energy, but the decision for me is I like relative to the market."
"So with the crowd universally bullish on large cap growth; technology; Japan... oops. By today's close we should have a feel for where the money flows for safety.
Trailing the SPX gain ytd by .4% at yesterday's close. I have been stopped out of several telecom positions in the last few days as well as a staple last week; looking like I will hit a few more today.
I was impressed by the miner's price stability yesterday in light of the sector downgrade. That particular analyst has a good history and therefore a good following. Miners have also been acting well relative to GLD. Wondering, once the dust starts to settle if some of that hot money in Japan, LC Growth, Tech and Internet finds a home in the gold miners and energy."
I'll say to general readers, that there are some excellent comments here, representing years of trading experience. I have no doubt that most readers of this blog can learn from more than just what they read from me here.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 18, 2006 08:40:42 AM | Category: Notes About This Blog
