Question for the community and Bill-

Should we set some guidelines on market cap and/or trading volume and/or price per share if we are to throw out ideas on company specific basis? Ideas/suggested levels?

This is from Real$ Rev Shark. I have read him for ? 5 or 6 years. Respect him a great deal and he is the key reason I have maintained a subscription. Oh, and the fact he doesn't mind jabbing Cramer is another reason-. This is long but timely to some earlier comments-

"Paring Into Strength Works
1/10/2006 12:07 PM EST

This pullback today has me contemplating the topic of trading styles. It has always been my contention that there is no style that is inherently superior. The best style depends on the individual using it. A momentum style may be best for one person, while a value approach will work best for someone else.

A market that has had a strong move like this one has so far this year brings to the forefront the issue of style. It was the problem of letting gains slip away after a good run that probably helped develop my personal style more than anything.

I would rack up some nice gains, but then in the blink of an eye give back a very large portion of them when things stalled. The fact that I trade smaller, more volatile stocks made some of the quick reversals even more breathtaking.

My sensitivity to giving back gains led me to develop a style of paring positions into strength. Although I don't try to call turning points in the market, especially at bottoms, I found that to be somewhat anticipatory when I had gains to protect helped me greatly.

The big fear that most investors have about selling into strength is that they won't be able to participate if the market continues to run. I found that the easy way to remedy that was to keep looking for new ideas. Even when the market is extremely strong, there are still plenty of stocks that have not fully participated. Stocks don't move as a single monolith. Even if the indices are very extended, there will be plenty of stocks that aren't.

This is the process that I went through in developing my approach to the market. When you consider your own trading, what are the issues you find most troublesome? Once you clearly identify that, you can then look for ways to remedy them.

For example, a value buyer may find that he takes some big hits by averaging down into a stock that doesn't pan out as hoped. That investor might address that problem by making sure he limited his investment to a certain amount, and made sales at certain points regardless of his take on the fundamentals."

There are an unlimited number of ways to attack the market beast. The key is to find something that works for you. There is no single correct way to do things. You just have to keep trying until things click."

after reading some of your posts over the last 30 days I have to ask myself why are people reading your blog ? Is there not anything out there "free of charge" that can beat your "yadayadayada". You provide investment/trading advice but don't have any meaningful positions yourself - you pad yourself on the back everytime you supposedly get something right but failed to buy the market in sep. 2005 amongst lots of other things. Remember quantity does not equal quality ! Again you provide your readers yesterday with the simplified RSI approach to encourage them not to join the current rally. And again you will be dead wrong - I hope that not too many folks realy follow your advice it would be sad to see again that they are missing out on a profitable month. To sum it up your strength lies more towards the metals and headline commenting but lacks badly towards trading .

brutus maximus -

I am involved in this site because I believe in Bill's approach and the education of the trading process. In the past 17 years I have traded multiple contracts and multiple timeframes, including a long stint in the trading pits. I find Bill's approach to be excellent for the intermediate term trader, but not for a daytrader. So each person will view Bill's approach within their own situation, goals and feelings.

I have added to certain stocks this fall, not following Bill's advice exactly, but that does not take anything away from Bill's advice. I have followed his musings since his traderwizard website and can tell you that he is excellent at what he does. You sound like you feel that you are excellent at what you do, so why don't you add to the discussions? We would welcome it.

Only time will tell if Bill or you and I are correct, but I will admit it if I am wrong. Hope you do the same.

Dear All, I'm looking for a site which has an earnings calendar that I can sort by liquidity (shares traded) and/or market cap. Does anyone know such a place?

Thanks,
Leo

Maybe he is trying to live up to his name? Or maybe the name gives an idea of the mind behind the message.

So, a goose whispered in my ear that a mkt cap of $500 mil or higher might be a good minimum size IF anyone wants to share individual stock ideas they are looking at or involved in. That keeps it pretty simple, if someone starts venturing into small cap land and cheerleading perhaps one of the regulars should alert Bill.

Hey Bill,

It takes a lot of nerve, for sure. As far as I can tell you picked the only sector worth investing in last fall (metals/miners), and called it to the exact day.

Now the market is proceeding with the "forget the yield curve" rally.. with internal divergences (technical and sentiment-wise).. but that story was played out before in 00/01 and your experience reminds us of that. I also appreciate the emphasis on risk management.

Funny thing - you see a lot of arrogance, denial, and greed at market tops as opinion solidifies into dogma. Personally, I expect I'll make my year riding the market down and riding it back up like I should have done in 2000, 2001, 2002. Looks like the commercials are doing the same with this 'great month' at the start of this 'great year'... thanks Bill!

A few days back I mentioned that I was looking at a few land companies that could benefit if the fed and the treasury are going to keep real estate afloat. I was particularly interested in the west coast and Hawaii due to the proximity to our Asian neighbors.

The Hawaii company is too small, but the other company I was looking at was TRC. Tejon Ranch Co. is a diversified real estate development and agribusiness company operating primarily in California. The primary asset of the Company is the approximately 270,000 acres of contiguous, largely undeveloped land in California, which at its most southerly border is 60 miles north of Los Angeles, and which at its most northerly border is 15 miles east of Bakersfield. I would not have been interested at the peak of optimism but after a drop from 64 to 40 I believe a small decline in housing is in the stock. The low was in on the final trading day of 2005 giving a good 4Q washout and setting the stock up for value buyers going into the new year. Downtrend decisively broken since.

Take a look at the longer term chart, BUYING WEAKNESS here. Jim Jubak has written the stock up and I believe you all have your own resources and/or methodology. I am looking at this as a 6-12 month investment based on it's past time cycles trough to peak.

I am interested in YOUR thoughts, am I crazy to buy this stock?

Long TRC

Gentlemen-
I wouldn't dignify a response to a flamer. He's just looking to get off. Ignore flamers and trolls. Basic site "management".

But let's see. First there was a call of a market bottom in April. Read the WIR. Then the call on oil and miners in May. Then great lessons on how to accumulate stocks by put writing etc in May also. Then calls on WMT and JNJ. Oh yeah. SNDK was in there too. Then another call of an intermediate low for gold and the minersin the Fall. Then a warn off five months ago on PG (just recognized by Value Line) that the Gilette deal would be major league dilutive. Then there were calls on AA and DD right before they shot to the moon. Then there was the conservative take on playing the November rally by taking in put premium. And on and on and on and on. NO VALUE HERE.

For giggles you can go and look up the RSI(14) in Jan-Mar of 2000 on the $COMPQ and get a feel for the power of this method. It seems divergence can be overcome if the uptrend is orderly. But the combination of a vertical market, heavy public participation - like $NIKK and loss of thrust (evidenced by divergence on RSI) makes for serious fireworks and skews risk/reward. Its been a little over 5.9yrs since the nas-bubble, fwiw.

Google rocks.

5.737-year (68.844-month) cycle international war; 692
5.790-year (69.48-month) cycle post office revenues; 598; 600
5.887-year (70.644-month) cycle sunspots alternate cycles reversed; 75
5.89-year (70.68-month) cycle sunspots; 7475; 119; 227-231
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle business activity; general; 74
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle business failure;; 63; 74-75; 588; 590-597
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle coal stock price; 74
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle copper prices; 74
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle copper share prices; 74
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle cotton prices; 73-74
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle gasoline; 73
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle grouse; 73; 75
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle interest rates; long term; 74
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle knit underwear; 75
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle pig iron prices; 74; 590
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle prices; 73-74
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle stock prices (combined); 74
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle stock price (industrial); 74
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle stock prices (railroad); 63; 74; 590
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle sunspots; alternate cycles reversed; 73
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle war; 640
5.9-year; (70.8-month) cycle wheat prices; 73
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle business failure liabilities; 227
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle coal stock prices; 75
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle copper prices; 63; 75; 227
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle copper share prices; 75
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle cotton prices; 63; 75; 227; 528; 558-564; 591
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle economic affairs; 73
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle pig iron prices; 63; 75; 227
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle stock prices (combined); 75; 227; 513
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle stock prices (industrial); 227
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle stock prices (railroad); 227
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle sunspots; 590
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle sunspots; alternate cycles reversed; 63; 558
5.91-year (70.9 month) cycle tree ring widths; 63; 558
5.91 or 5.92-year (70.9 or 71-month) cycle economic series; 74
5.91 or 5.92-year (70.9 or 71-month) cycle stock prices; 403; 513-5t8
5.92-year (71-month) cycle business activity; 75
5.92-year (71-month) cycle interest rates; long term; 76
5.92-year (71-month) cycle knit underwear; 75
5.92-year (71-month) cycle stock prices (railroad); 75; 513; 516-518
5.93-year (71.16-month) cycle stock prices (industrial); 63
5.93-year (71.16-month) cycle wheat prices; 76
5.96-year (71.52-month) cycle wheat prices; 63

RE: Brutus Maximus

Picture here. Fine looking fellow.

http://www.beefalobeef.com/brutus.htm

January Trading Calendar suggest lows on the 7th trading day of Jan (tomorrow 11th) then rally through the 12th trading day (18th):

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/calendar/January/

A Home Boom Busts

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-chinabubble8jan08,0,7585034.story?coll=la-home-headlines&track=morenews

There's another Safehaven report (January 9th) on the M-3 and it isn't slowing down:

"M-3 has been launched into outer space, up another $56.3 billion last week, up $92.4 billion over the past two. This is some real horsepower. Over six weeks, the meaningless figure, ahem, is up $177.8 billion. These annualized growth rates are 28.7 percent, 23.6 percent, and 15.3 percent respectively. Those are the seasonally adjusted figures. The raw, non-seasonally adjusted, figure is up $293.3 billion over the past 12 weeks, on a pace to add 1.2 trillion in money to the economy."

Check the article with a graph that tells all at:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-4403.htm

No wonder the market's booming with that kind of money out there! Although tempted to take gains, I'm holding on to my few goldminers longer (expecting volatility) and securing some foregn currency exposure (dollar weakening) positions. The RSI(14)has approached some high levels on a miner, but backed off.

By the way a question to the community: Which RSI(14) do you base your decisions on--the 30 minute, 60 minute, daily or weekly chart?

Bill,

I suspect there are PLENTY of lurkers that truly appreciate the point of view presented by yourself for absolutely no charge, nada, zilcho. Being somewhat of a newb, I personally appreciate the breakdowns you've provided on markets/tools from an abstract perspective, especially since I need organization before I can even approach survival.

As far as "specific" advice is concerned, I've made very good money after taking into serious consideration your discussion on Gold. Had I listened to your advice to sit tight after the first Gold runnup, I'd a made fortune in just a few short months. Just as well... at least you confirmed something else I was looking closely at while sittin' on the sidelines.

The Shanghai Index perked up today (+1.11 pct) to 1169.86. Shanghai Fly advises that local trader sentiment has turned bullish and that he expects to see a bullish run here (about +4.5 pct) to about 1223, which is the cycle high reached in September. I am in agreement on this one. The way to play it is via the two China ETF's FXI and PGJ.

Shanghai Index on 12/29: 1169
Shanghai Index on 01/10: 1215

FXI on 12/29: 62.28
FXI on 01/09: 66.79

PGJ on 12/29: 13.95
PGJ on 01/10: 15.13

While others might bitch and moan about the value provided by this "free" site, I'd more than likely be willing to pay a price for the same access. No one can trust any single source of information any more... too much misinformation. Yours is a viewpoint I appreciate, and it's one I use in an effort to balance the myriad of talking heads. Thanks!

By the way, the prior section re: the Shanghai Index was obviously taken from "your" comments. Perhaps I'll learn to use embedded tags in your comments section one day soon.

In the spirit of wanting to contribute to this great site and the people that use it, I will propose China Fund(CHN)as an alternative to FXI and PGJ. It has outperformed both FXI and PGJ in the periods I examined.

Please note that I am inexperienced and anything I say should be double checked.

Kudos to those who have shown restraint in commenting about Brutus. Civility in this site is second to none. Don't know why he has to convey so much hostility - if he doesn't like it he can simply tune out.

Stockman and many others, I feel I am out of my depth in even attempting to suggest a stock idea in your company, but this one may be worthy. I subscribe to Fred Hickey's newsletter and he positively mentions COMS due to a catalyst, a joint venture (Huawei-3COM) that they may be able to gain controlling interest soon. He is cautious on that given Chinese politics, but "hidden jewel" are his words in describing the JV. Now even with all that, I would not have posted but here's one more: Fred is on Barron's roundtable, which I think should be out soon. Perhaps his mentioning of COMS there will give it that extra Barron's pop, in addition to the fundamentals.

Seamus-

Bill has explanations of his technique under "Trend and Cycle Analysis". Has worked very well for me.

BTW, the RSIs on CHN are off the charts.

We commented on insider activity in CHK yesterday, another energy name where insiders are 'believers' would be CWEI. Pirate Capital (which has a pretty strong history) has been accumulating JRCC. All 3 had form 4's yesterday.

I have followed insider activity actively for about 12 years and use it as a 'piece' of the puzzle. Never use it in isolation.

Long- CHK, CWEI, JRCC

CHN broke out of a H&S and met the objective.
http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundPages/global.asp?MFID=8002
It has a HUGE premium above NAV.
Anyways, that's a good fund to watch.
BTW Brutus, people need someone like Bill Cara telling them everyday that the rally is dangerous is participate in. Or they'll think that it's safe to join the rally(it may or may not be, but Bill Cara is giving his opinion--backed with experience ;)) Just like if you stop telling people not to cross the street when the light is red, more accidents will happen. Believe me, there are people who run across the street while cars are zooming by :D
And also, Shanghai index was first posted bullish when it was at 1130 or so. So count that as a 7-8% gain :D.

One more thing about Bill's system. It's funny how I beat the market in '05 by 4.1% using cues from him and had between 73-83% cash levels isn't it? But maybe that would have been 14.1% if only I would have run between the cars. After all, a lot of people make it. But the ones who don't usually have their names end up in TWO parts of the newspaper.

COMS-

I have dated COMS in the past. Last year insiders were accumulating shares from $3-3.50. The stock got chased up over to $4 pretty quickly after those were reported. IF we see similar levels in a sell off I would be interested in another date. That being said I have not been particularly interested in tech and have no fundamental reason to dislike COMS.

no position

There is some talk about the seasonal influence to the energy sector. Chart of the Day has a chart that shows data since 1992 suggest weakness in the XOI relative to the SPX through January month end then ramping up through June. So just wait until th end of January, buy the bargains and ride 'em up.

I think it wise to consider this seasonal tendency. However I would also note that in the past 5 years it looks like a coin toss. Does the secular bull market carry more weight that 'normal' seasonality? My sense is that it does and YTD 2006 (as Jan goes) energy is outperforming.

Precious metals sentiment-

CEF is trading at a premium of over 7%. This is a closed end fund holding the metals (not stocks). I believe this is at the high end of the range for the premium above nav since the gold ETFs began trading. Red flag?

bond alert:
TLT today has broken below the $91 mark for the first time since Dec 23. Technically, I see it moving down to 90.3 +/- .1 range in the short term and then back to retesting the lows at ~88.5..

To further the TLT discussion, $TNX seems to have bounced from a channel line (short term channel). The RSI downtrend is broken marking the down move is broken. The August market high was made during the tail end of the upswing in $TNX. I presume rising rates affect retail/builders directly as well as bonds.

Whoops, in the above I made a typo and didn't mean to imply that a broken RSI downtrend line has significance other than alerting to a price break. The line I'm referring to is RSI14 on a daily chart associated with the downmove that started in early (when stocks started upward).

TLT-

In support of a break down- sentiment has turned positive (Rydex); stock:bond ratio no longer at extreme; commercials and specs are gravitating towards flat.

That being said in light of a weakening economy I doubt bonds have much downside (famous last words?).

But then if the economy is so weak, why are stocks ramping up?

Bonds may key off stocks here. If stocks remain strong then bonds could break down as economy is stronger than expected going forward; if stocks break down bonds will rally I believe as the worm turns the other way.

Hence, they are a hedge if you have long exposure. IMHO

Long TLT, IEF, STRIPS

CWEI another F4

stockman-

Did you read Gross' January article at PIMCO site? New indicator says bond bear is over, recession indicated 12-18 months.

R.Russell sees topping action already in Dow.

R.Russell bought more gold today according to friend who reads newsletter. Says if holds above $550, $850 is next target.

The guy's been right more than a few times. Food for thought.

we are breaking to new highs...lots of money being printed (maybe that is why).....the market has a number of reasons to drop, but it isn't. this looks like a market that wants to move up to me. the charts look good...vol. looks good....as may problems as there are out there the market does not appear to care...i don't know why...all i know is what i see, i see a market moving up.

MarkM-

Yes, I caught your note on the Pimco 'recession indicator'. I have been in that camp for a while I guess, the recession camp that is. While the recession in 2006 may just be a 50:50 chance, I would guess that the odds of a spike in fear of a recession is a much higher probability. Beyond charts that is the reason I was willing to go into bonds, some hedge for longs in that event.

Then again this money supply bothers me. Could the fed be creating money to prop up the stock and bond markets while the bring down the real estate monster with the rate increases? That's what it looks like. Good for gold but I doubt that would be seen as positive for bonds in the end.

This market is definitely tough to fight. All kinds of indicators flashing WARNING WARNING... and the market goes higher. Beginning to feel like 1999/2000 to me.

Speaking of which, was that BRUTUS on the Cramer Circus last night? I think he may have found the guru he needed.

Rydex cash shows that folks are being pulled in. I'm afraid I am poorly positioned for such an exciting market... oh well.

CHK- another form 4 last night. In the WSJ and Barron's 'insider column' I believe you'll see these energy names in the 'big buys' list over the next few weeks.

For those joining in the market on the long side I think you would want to half some pretty strict sell discipline in place to protect yourself. This rubber band is being stretched pretty far and when it snaps it could hurt. JMHO.

stockman-

Well, what about diversifying out of the US then with the bond portion with a global bond fund and/or emerging market bond fund? That is the way I am going. I am stepping aside on the US equities and bonds as I can't figure out a cohesive plan. Longs then are gold, oils, then world bonds/ emerging markets bonds and treasuries round it out. I had considered TIPs as well. You can get 6.73% rate right now on I-Bonds. That would have beaten the S&P handily last year and it may crush it this year.

Didn't Mr. Roaring 2000s (Dent) write a follow up book entitled "Bubble Boom 2005-2009"? Isn't the premise increasing liquidity then "poof" it all goes up in smoke? I think he came out with this 2 years ago. With all this liquidity, the markets SHOULD do well. And gold even better. Markets over gold ratio should really skew in gold's favor if this is right. How else does US get out of this mess? If we deflate there would be anarchy.

MarkM-

I'll take the devil I know. My bias from past experience is to stay with what I know. If I can't see holding anything then cash is ok. Or I do as I've been doing and hedge away some of my risks. International debt makes me nervous, emerging market debt even more so. If I am trying to hide I want to know the risks. I always own some international stocks of course. If we got a real crisis going I believe we'll be surprised that among world currency options... the U.S. dollar may still be seen as the safe haven. Of course it will very likely go down in value relative to gold and other commodities but will it go down relative to other currencies if confidence declines globally? I wouldn't bet that way.

Insider selling you ask? In nas/tech land these names show up among the biggest sales transactions THIS WEEK:

GOOG
SEBL
MRVL
MSFT
GME
BRCM
SNDK
JBL
NSM
AAPL
IDC
CMVT

I would absolutely not trade on this information. Sales can be made for many reasons, it just struck me how many tech names are at the top and how many of the Clown's picks are there as well.

Insider trading-

Extensive studies demonstrate that over the 3, 6 and 12 months following significant insider buys the stocks on average outperform the market.

A few things to consider:

1) Only about half of the stocks actually outperform the market! So the gains on the outperformers out weigh the underachievers. The data should not be used in isolation!

2) The higher the executive is within a firm the more they tend to outperform.

3) The ouperformance is across all size companies but the greatest outperformance comes from the smallest companies.

4) Insiders are not traders, their buying and selling habits appear to be value driven.

SIRI has way too high a market cap for me relative to its market... I don't think it earns its share price and I can only assume people will figure that out some day, so I dare not expose myself to it.

Of course, I know this is a site for "traders" not "investors" but I like to look at both sides when it makes sense.

korvus,

that may be true, but that trade will/is moving the stock today

1/12/2006 11:05 - SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC- [(SIRI)] Filing:
KARMAZIN MEL (CEO) Checked: Director Officer
Common Stock 01/12/2006 P 1,000,000 $6.21

An example of how insider activity can move a stock- look at coal company ANR today. The stock has been in a painful downtrend, and had come up to that downtrend line. One insider reports buying 10,000 shares at $19 and it breaks right through the downtrend line.

Long ANR

stockman-

You are one active guy! :)

MarkM-

Yes. But these positions are relatively small, most are 1-3% of account. Uncertain times, smaller bets for me.

On down days like today I like to look at my losers- who is doing worse than market? Do I really like you or were you just a date? If I thought you were going to stand up for me in the hard times, did you? (benefit from rotation when the decline came)

And so I sacrifice some virgins. Today: FDX, CLX, HNI, TJX, MMM had to go. These were all sold at gains, albeit pretty meager on a couple after all is considered.

My rotation plays in the staples area are hurting today but the worse was CLX, so she had to go. If this continues I'll have to say good bye to a few others. Can't let them misbehave and get away with it.

Energy and gold holding up well (although down pretty hard from day's highs) and bonds are acting well bouncing off that trend line. Overall looks like I'm down about half the market dip. Interested to see how this last hour goes.

Stockman,

Where do you check the Rydex ratios at? Thanks.

LB-
stockman subscribes to DecisionPoint.

stockman-

It has been interesting to see all these sucky 4Q earnings come in. My Consumer puts are all in the green though.

I will just stick to the oils and metals. My positions need to be built up some though.

I use Decision Point and Sentimentrader- both are subscription required.

I will discontinue mentioning insider data unless someone gives me feedback to do otherwise.

stockman-

I like the insider data. Which service carries that?

stockman-
Wanted to ask if you were participating in Virtual Investment Club and/or as a monitor. If so, which section?

The Washington Service- sub required

New:

1/12/2006 14:58 - CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY INC /DE- [CWEI] Filing:
Clayton Williams Partnership, Ltd. Checked: 10% Owner
Common Stock, $.10 par value 01/10/2006 P 7,587 $44.23

Mark M-

No, I don't think so. Bill may use me as a monitor but I'm not sure where.

g034/stockman/ClaudeG-

What is gold doing here? Basing or subtle distribution? NY seems to be selling it down in the AM then buying it back. Who is doing which though? Could be key to where this is heading.

stockman-

I am heading the "Daytrading the Long Term Trends" section. You can have one called "The Inside Scoop". :)

Do you know how it's going to work? Time requirement?

MarkM - If I draw a line connecting four peaks from August I see the current price hanging around just below with divergence on RSI-14 between this peak and the prior one. MACD(12,26,9) seems to be forming a double-top. I would vote for subtle-distribution, but wouldn't be surprised to see it go higher.. so I'm sidelined. That is my 0.02.

stockman-

Not in detail. Bill, can you weigh in on this a little? What is expected?

ClaudeG-

I am sweating along with you so far. I can't bring myself to root against it as I know the community here is probably way net long.

Net long has been wildly successful so far and the fundamentals are undoubtedly still strong, in fact I believe I read an article that correlated M3 with rises in $TNX on the safehaven site (printing $ to keep rates from technical breakouts I suppose). But.. there is no doubt also a ton of hot money chasing, I guess we could check the rydex metals fund cash levels to confirm. I've got some popcorn.

ClaudeG can be on my team. We are gonna go down together. A World Turned Upside Down will be our team song. (Glug.)

MarkM - I guess you can explain that to me when we can exchange email directly :)

ClaudeG-

I'm talking about our (so far) impeccable gold timing skills. Perhaps we will be seen as geniuses by historians? :)

Gold sentiment?

CEF trading at 8.6% premium. they own nothing but gold and silver bullion. You can buy GLD or IAU at nav. That is the highest premium since the GLD began trading. Big negative.

COT commercials short; specs long. They been wrong too long for me to worry about this.

Rydex assets: Current spike would correspond with short term peaks in 2005, but in 2003 we were way higher in the 2H. This one suggest we need a pullback or time to consolidate.

I hold my little 12% position, to add back I need to see at least a 5 day break from rise; and/or a drop to 20 dma; and/or rsi below .20; and/or macd at zero.

Or how about ANY insider buying stock (other than penny stock tape painters).

JMHO

CEF-

Some now consider this no longer relevent. However, I look at post-GLD data and it looks like it's buy signals have been generated about every 5 or 6 weeks. Most recently mid December. When the next opportunity comes I will buy gold exposure, how about you two?

I will jump in on gold at any buy level present.

There is a big battle underway between shorts and longs in the $547-540 range. We will see who wrests control.

Brutus Maximus
I have always thought that, the more cross-hairs you can put on a subject, the more likely you won't shoot yourself in the foot or someplace even more valuable. This site is one I visit often and value highly...but it is only one cross-hair. Bill's views are valuable inputs into any decision-making thought process because he ISN'T TRYING TO SELL US ANTHING. There are so many sell side opinions that advantage, in many cases, the opionmakers own book. I will always remember the words of an old, grizzled (and rich) market veteran from the old Canadian firm of Gordon Capital..."market experience is the comb that God gives you when you have no hair".

Korvus

There's investors here as well as traders! Some are also traders who have part of the portfolio invested longer term. I think Bill welcomes both.

Off to Dublin tomorrow night for 5 days, I was feeling comfortable. A lot can happen during one's absence. Took some chips off the table over the last month or so and built up cash. I retained a few goldminers, a couple of long term plays on a weakening dollar and a few other holdings. Yes I was comfortable with that.

But then there was that high tech chip stock that was up >50% in 2 months (up 7 of the last 8 days). I liked it long term but not that much of the portfolio. So I listened to the music, (with RSI and STOCH screaming, the stock up again) and took a dance with a woman who knew LeeAnn.

Later the stock closed down two points from the that morning move. I looked out the window but there were no geese flying by.

From Bill's mouth on RSI post;

And traders are not investors either. Investors are buyers and sellers of companies, including the physical assets, the human resources and the intellectual property; but traders deal only in prices of securities.

It is my understanding that both day, swing and longer traders are welcome and supported at this cite.

At least that is my hope.

Andy

Thanks for the information (posted below in case someone missed it) on Decision Point. I am taking advantage of the free trial and will probably join.

From Andy:
I just thought I would let you and your readers know that Carl Swenlin(decisionpoint.com)has a recorded market assessment at the site.
http://www.streetiq.com/dir/MARKETVIEWS.shtml#
He believes that the market is due for an correction.
He also is giving a free two week access to www.decisionpoint.com id, burger password, fries.

Stockman,

I've been looking at JRCC vis-a-vis Pirate Capital. Yahoo shows two others that Pirate has been involved with recently, CRN and CBUK. It looks like the best pop from Pirate seems to come about 2 months after Pirate declares statement of ownership. With CRN, +23% around 1/4/05, with CBUK, +11% around 2/4/05 and also 3/4/05. Since JRCC statement of ownership was made on 12/16/05, approximately 2/16/06 seems like a useful date.

I have no doubt you have already looked into all such angles -- do you have any further thoughts on JRCC?

davidtr4-

All welcome here! Above all, this is a site to educate and inform.

stockman-

On rotational plays, have you looked into lumber and grain? They haven't yet fully participated in The Great Commodity Run-up of 2002 to ?????.

All-

For the second day in a row, the Kitco site has stories saying that buying out of India for gold is weak at these levels.One dealer commented however that they really had no choice if they wanted gold for wedding season. They would have to come around. Buying out of Japan said to be lighter also. Combine that with stockman's data on commercials and speculators and you get the picture that it is the speculators holding this up right now at least on this side of the pond. As I have opined before, it would be healthier to have an orderly advance and not go vertical. That includes consolidation and pullbacks. Just my humble opinion. We'll get a good take from Bill I am sure in his WIR.

John from VA

You are giving me too much credit on researching JRCC.

I am underinvested and looking for ideas to participate.

I like energy, so I am on the look out for ways to play.

I like insider trading buy side activity because it draws attention to the stock in question AND because this shifts the odds in my favor. Simple thinking here- 1) attention- this stock has only 4 analyst watching it (the less the better). With all the money out there I want something that will cause my position to be waved in there (decision makers)face a few times. If it is in a favored sector so much the better. 2) long side is always at an advantage because stocks rise over time; insider net buy stocks outperform stocks over the shorter time frame (0-12 months). Increasing my odds.

I like stocks which are oversold daily but appear to be breaking their recent downtrend. Plus for me if at has been underperforming the SPX and appears to be trying to break that trend. Intuitively I believe that this relative turn can help draw attention from managers focused on relative portfolio returns (which is virtually ALL of them).

I really like a weekly chart which demonstrates the wave like pattern you see on JRCC. On the low end but turning up. Nice upside to high end of range $50-55.

That's about all the thinking it took for me to get involved. Only a 3% position in the account. I would anticipate trading around the position some but be involved for 3-9 months.

This is a trade, not an investment. The price behavior of the stock, the sector or other opportunities arising could cause me to eliminate it tomorrow.

MarkM-

I have traded in and out of JD (grain beneficiary) and IP (timber lands) at least once in the past 12 months for good gains. They are out of my range now having JUST sold out of IP again.

Always open to ideas... anything specific you are looking at?

No position.

stockman-

You would be a tad bit late but PCL. Like it long term also.

I have been trying to use RSI and EMA to time the actual buy/sell order using 3 time frames: (1) 1 minute with EMA(20), (2) 2 minutes with EMA(20) and EMA(50), (3) 5 minutes with EMA(17) and EMA(43). The EMA setting came from Decision Point as good for determining the short, intermediate and longer term trend. The 1,2 and 5 minute charts came from something I read on the net (not sure where) to use the smallest time frames for execution decisions.

I would welcome any comments on this methodology.

stockman-

Isn't JRCC making lower highs on its cycles up each time? That's what it looks like to me. My chart read says this has more downside after yeaterday's action-- a spike high and a close near the open. That the longer cycle down is not yet complete. Something to look at anyway. $38.50 is nearest support. JMHO.

TYX countertrend move over? Resumption of down trend takes us a stair step lower to 4.4%-

long- bonds

MarkM

You may be right, didn't like that reversal yesterday. But I put more weight on it's outperforming in a down market. I have been accumulating a position, 3 separate purchases in last 4 weeks; each at least a week apart; average cost 38.64. I also put more weight on the weekly chart vs day to day.

I do not require perfection in the stars alignment... this feels comfortable to me based on thoughts above.

stockman-
Okay. I looked at the Weekly again to confirm read. I think downtrend isn't broken until breaks above 42. You are obviously in the black here coming off a short term cycle low, but I still am uncomfortable with the intermediate prospects until it holds 42 for awhile with a non-toppy RSI. JMHO.

hi all

Has anyone watched bonds yields over the last week. 3mo is nearing inversion with 10y. 6mo already seems to be inverted at 4.422.
The problem I have is I don't know where to get the best data yahoo still shows yields under 4 but reuters shows over 4 same with bloomberg.
Anyways I think this will start to get headlines again over next week or two.

Any thoughts?

Andy

Here is the link to rueters
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financebonds.aspx this matches bloomberg.

why is their such a difference with yahoo
stockcharts etc.

I believe that if there is not a hike on 31
the longer duration bonds will first rise modestly but then fall in price at a increasinly rapid pace due to international selling and then loss of the inflation expectaion anchor.
This will effect risk prem in the equity markets during what might be a mid cycle slowdown.

Just my thoughts.

Long cash, $can cash.

Andy