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January 30, 2006

Capital risk in India equity market, Mon., Jan. 30, 2006, 11:17 AM

I received the following e-mail this morning from a trader in Bombay. He asks a legitimate question. Why would traders wish to take excessive capital risk by chasing Indian stocks to such premiums? Extreme speculation is the reason. Other than that, there is no good reason.


"Bill, Discovered your blog when researching investing abroad and specifically India. It is great and a tremendous source of information...

Would be very interested in your comments on investing in India right now. With all the international press investing in India recently, the ADRs of Indian companies listed in the US are very high.

Even higher are the Discount/Premium on the two Indian stock ETFs IFN & IIF.

Specifically, IFN's discount/premium seems to be really thru' the roof - as of Fri Jan 27, 2006 it is a soaring 29.75%!!! I know this market is really hot, but why would anyone pay this high a premium for essentially static stock picks till the CEF re-organizes (later in Feb/March) under new management?

See http://www.cefa.com/scripts/fundstat.asp?id=IFN&d=1
(Premium calculated at Morningstar is incorrect and shows 15%!)

Thanks,
(An investor interested in India)"


Traders who are active in the India market would be well served by watching the RSI on the Daily and Hourly price data series.

Every time the RSI drops to a low (say below 30) and rises to a high level (above 70), for both Hourly and Daily, there is a timely opportunity to enter and exit positions.

When you see an RSI value at 90 or higher, it's what I call "red lining it" and traders have to be ready for a pull-back. Presently, the India market is red lining it, so traders ought to be careful of the risk to capital of holding long positions, or, worse, to be taking new ones.

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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 30, 2006 11:18:06 AM | Category: India

Discourse

Situation: The percentage of nervous traders out there are increasing with respect to India. But I'd like to underline a few issues in light of this nervous anxiety:

1)Have the same traders looked at Peru, Columbia, Brazil and even the S&P?

2)Is it fair for BancoBradesco one of Bill's favorite stocks which he's mentioned in the past was too rich to keep rising and give a year to date gain in the range of 170%?

3)Is it right to have a stock like google have a target of $650?

4) Should gold be $562 and trodding along with the wind at its back?

I could go on but the point I'm making is people are taking the first chance they can get to snub India because markets have been blistering hot.

I had a talk with a colleauge of mine who said he'd jump into China but never into India and I couldn't convince him of a single name. Corruption was a major theme that he brought up and how everything could be wiped out in a single day. I'm assuming he thinks China and the US is free from accounting scandal and the regulation in Chinese markets is top notch. I digress. You have corruption in all markets and more so in the IPO stage small cap stocks.

Each time somebody on this board has said the India fund will stall its hit a new high. We've had this discussion on NAV premiums constantly but for those buy and hold traders - It isn't an issue.

The only highly speculated stock which is moving truly on spec is REDIFF. Thanks to our class clown on CNBC calling it "The Indian Google". Reliance Industries was called the Sears & Home Depot last week in addition to his "Indian Google call". I recall the stock moving 37% on his mention.

Don't be afraid to trade International Equity in Top Names. I think the markets mentioned along with Peru/Columbia/Brazil are alive and will dominate for some time to come. The biggest mistake is to believe China investments will beat Indian Investments. India has a smaller infrastructure and base - thus the percentage returns will dominate. That said you cannot rush to the index and buy it but blue chip for blue chip the Indian Market has room for excellence.

Everybody is going to cry and gripe when its constantly hitting a 52wk high. It's only natural. Coverage on Indian markets is increasing dramatically with today's article on yahoo's finance page pitting India vs China.

/d

Posted by: dinov [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 30, 2006 12:33 PM [link]

I do indeed have a positive view of the Indian Equity markets - what I was trying to refer to is the specific issue of what I think is 'excessive premium' for IFN - a closed-end-fund that is relatively static in it's holding from Dec 2005 to May 2006 as it is run by 'Interim Managers'.


The fund IFN trades at almost a 30% premium to it's NAV from Fri Jan 27, 2006. This CEF (or the other Indian CEF IIF) have historically never traded at such a high premium. Almost none of the Indian stocks that trade as ADRs in the US have historically had such high premiums either.


A 10-15% premium I can understand but a 30% premium is indeed very high...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IFN&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=%5EBSESN,IIF

Compares IFN, ^BSE Index and IIF

Posted by: mSquare [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 31, 2006 11:07 AM [link]

Posted by: Ravi Purohit [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 31, 2006 2:24 PM [link]

Hi,

I think you are right about Indian markets looking weak currently. Its only the large caps that are surging ahead, midcaps and smallcaps are struggling to stay afloat. Advance/Decline ratio is also looking weak, indicating a decrepit market breadth. Thus, its only the benchmark indices that are currently driving the markets. Not good signs. I think markets are poised for a healthy correction (say back to 8,000-8,500 levels on the BSE Sensex).

But after that I think they will resume their journey towards the north pole. After all how many countries on this earth can today boast of a consistent real GDP growth of 6-7 %. In fact my personal opinion is that after IT sourcing, its the turn of the GM's, the Ford's, and the Daimler Chrylser's of the world that will begin to look at countries such as India to lower costs. They are already under mounting costs (healthcare or otherwise).

Not only these, it is only a matter of time when the big daddy of all - the US pharma companies start setting up large (really large) R&D centres in India. CRAMs and Clinical testing too can come to this part of the world. Ofcourse, this will not only benefit India but will also benefit US and its consumers dramatically (by resulting in lower prices).

I think - Auto Ancilliaries and pharmaceuticals are the next outsourcing ideas that can add fuel to the economy that is already burning hot (on the back of robust domestic consumption and not exports).

So if one were to ask a question - where to invest for the next 5-10 years. The answer should definitely include - India as one of the prime destinations. Another gentleman who firmly believes in India story is Mr.Jeremy Seigel (of the Stocks for the long run fame). Interesting article by him on India v/s China can be accessed here -

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/futureinvest/2369

Adios.

Posted by: Ravi Purohit [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 31, 2006 3:34 PM [link]