As for this blog, I think most of you now see that trading a personal portfolio is like running your own business, not investing in somebody else's. As a business operator, you need to understand the risks and opportunities in your environment, set goals and objectives, buy low and sell high, and increase your cash flow.

Actively trading securities to increase wealth is not easy, but it's also not so difficult you need others to make your decisions. But just like riding a bike or driving a car, you do need to learn.

As well as skills, you also need to learn the judgment of "a prudent man". At times in your life-long journey, when storm clouds approach and the road ahead becomes less certain, you need to focus more on risks than opportunities. The present time is one of those.

So as time goes by, you learn to appreciate the dynamic qualities of trading capital markets. If you're like me, trading can become your passion.

Next week I'll try to sum up the Year in Review. This, however, is a review of Week #51.

A week ago, I wrote: "By late next week, I think you'll be clearly seeing the bearish patterns of falling pennants as stocks get distributed to the suckers who have been conditioned like Pavlov's Dogs." All I meant by that was that increasingly there would be signs that the 2002-2006 bull market is coming to an end.

This week there were 14 Dow stocks up and 16 down. The top three winners were all bounces of stocks that had been hammered down earlier, which is not what I call leadership (MRK, PFE and AIG).

The three Dow 800-pound gorilla's (GE, XOM and WMT) are the usual leaders in a bull market, but they were three of the seven biggest losers on the board this week. And the usual tech leaders (INTC and MSFT) were not far behind them.

So, as you work through the details of this report, you will not find much encouragement for the Bulls. And casting a pall on the whole situation, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has started to go negative.

I believe that the 2002-2006 bull market is coming to an end, and would have ended this month except that a massive increase in money supply is extending the top. So I still have 78-pct in cash or near-cash, with 12-pct in gold and silver stocks, which is major over-weighting in that asset class.

For those who happen to be holding a large percentage of cash, I feel that 2006 will become a buyer's market for equities and it will be a year to become enriched. Traders who are chasing equities higher here, however, are bearing significant risk, and likely to be disappointed.

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Portfolio/Trades: I had a very good week, with 5 of 6 up, and the total pct increase rising from +9.1 to +14.7 pct. I now have three shorts (XLF, IYZ and EWH), and only one long (TSX: XGD). I'll close down the blog portfolio next week before going on vacation, and return in January with a (premium access) live portfolio with screen-shots of the brokerage account. That will start as soon as the web developer rolls out the BillCara2006 dot com.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Five up; five down.

10: Energy (XLE): Over-weighted: winter ahead; small gain W/W
15: Basic Materials (XLB): Over-weighted: metals recovered; #1 performer
20: Industrials (XLI): Market-weighted: small gain W/W but topping
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): Market-weighted: 8th worst; consumer credit issues
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): Market-weighted: sold at top of week; weakness expected
35: Healthcare (IYZ): Market-weighted: MRK +7.3 pct & PFE +6.1 pct; trouble ahead
40: Financial (XLF): Under-weighted: six week ceiling and inverting yield curve
45: Technology (SMH chips): Market-weighted: declining peaks; can't exceed 39
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): Under-weighted: declining month; worst performer W/W
55: Utilities (XLU): Market-weighted: topped out @ 32.75 week ago

Bonds: Strong Thurs and Fri, with TLT up +2.0 pct W/W as equity money flows into bonds (merely going from the ugly to the bad)

Commodities: The index was flat this week

Oil & Gas: Loss of "1.2 pct W/W although "1.03 pct was lost on Friday; technical weakness starting to show

Gold: Gold was flat on the week after bouncing off a new support level of $490, closing $502.80

Goldminers: Shares continue to be relatively stronger than the metal, with $XAU up +2.2 pct and TSX: XGD up +3.8 pct W/W

Forex: USD repatriation served to power up the trade-weighted USD this week +1.3 pct, while the Euro was down "1.2 pct W/W

International Equities: While the U.K. equity market dropped sharply, EWJ (Japan) flourished again, up +2.8 pct W/W (up +2.7 pct a week ago too); but Weekly RSI is 88.0 so not going much higher, if at all for the next month

U.S. Equities : The Dow, S&P500 and Naz were all flat, while the Russell small caps were slightly up +0.5 pct, offsetting previous week's loss of "0.8 pct. Sixteen Dow stocks were down, and 14 up on the week.

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ETF Portfolio:

Weekly
Daily
30-Minute

Short:
XLF (29.13) 32.18 -10.5 pct
IYZ (23.50) 23.16 +1.4 pct
EWH (13.03) 12.88 +1.2 pct

Long:
TSX: XGD (53.03) 61.03 +15.1 pct
XLP (23.66) N/A +4.44pct SOLD
IYH (60.54) N/A +3.12 pct SOLD

My sample portfolio continued to gain: to being up +14.7 pct vs +9.1 pct, +7.9 pct and +2.2 pct in the prior three weeks. I'll be closing it for admin reasons next week.

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Sector ETF:

Here are the ETF charts I follow for the ten sectors of the U.S. equity market:

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N, but is otherwise unsorted.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
XLB	30.54	0.11	0.36%	2.48%	1.09%	2.97%	3.77%	12.78%	10.37%	2.41%
IYH	64.12	0.02	0.03%	1.71%	3.22%	2.69%	10.06%	2.97%	4.16%	9.49%
XLF	32.18	0.03	0.09%	0.63%	0.88%	-0.83%	5.79%	9.64%	9.60%	5.27%
XLI	31.84	0.06	0.19%	0.54%	1.18%	0.73%	3.44%	7.03%	8.01%	1.89%
XLE	51.25	-0.14	-0.27%	0.35%	-1.10%	0.49%	46.51%	-2.49%	13.33%	40.37%
XLP	23.66	-0.05	-0.21%	-0.63%	1.28%	-0.17%	2.51%	4.09%	3.00%	2.69%
SMH	37.77	0.07	0.19%	-0.71%	-0.45%	0.83%	15.65%	4.34%	9.10%	14.52%
XLY	33.09	0.10	0.30%	-0.96%	-0.81%	-1.75%	-5.62%	2.48%	-0.12%	-5.08%
XLU	31.85	0.07	0.22%	-1.42%	-0.47%	0.31%	15.69%	-2.54%	1.63%	13.71%
IYZ	23.16	0.00	0.00%	-2.65%	-2.97%	-3.66%	-4.10%	-1.03%	-0.60%	-4.49%

This week, it was 5 down and 5 up. Last week I wrote: "I'm taking a guess that by the close next week, there will be oh seven down and three up." I was never a good gambler. Let's see what next week brings?

---

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

XLE was up +0.25 W/W to close at 51.25. Momentum peaked at the end of Sept.

I am modestly over-weighted in Energy within a portfolio that is grossly over-weighted in cash. But I don't have big hopes, and may soon sell into strength.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

XLB was the best performer on the week, up +2.58 pct W/W to 30.54.

A week ago I told you "the stock traders were a couple days behind the curve"; this week they caught up. Three days (Wed-Fri) were big, but XLB looks toppy, mostly because of the non-metal groups.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

XLI was up +0.54 pct W/W to 31.84. After a four day run from Tuesday am, XLI still can't beat 32. And next week, GE looks like it will lead this sector south.

A major story in next week's Barron's pulls apart GE's past five year earning's growth, attributing most of it to under-reserves in the insurance unit.

Oh the games management plays to keep their top compensation rolling.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

XLY was down "0.96 pct W/W to 33.09.

A week ago I wrote "Selling started Thursday, and Friday was down "0.7 pct on the day. So I see danger here too."

The problem here for the consumer sector (discretionary, staples and health) is that America is tapped out. The game of mortgaging up and cashing out is basically over now. A long-term chart of individual incomes (rising slowly) versus rising debt (going vertical this Millennium) is outright scary.

I have been saying for some time: "Consumers have no tickee" and now that they are mortgaged up on their houses, the housing boom is over, and housing prices will be flat to falling for the next four or five years. Trouble, trouble.

The consumer discretionary sector shows that manufacturers and retailers just have no pricing power. Substantial discounting was needed to move product at year-end sales. Many of the retailers are guiding down for 1Q06,

---

Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

XLP (Consumer Staples) was down "0.63 pct W/W to 23.66. Spending issues abound.

If you stick to the best managed companies in this sector " ABV, DEO, PG, WAG, WFMI and WMT " and buy after significant market weakness, including overwriting via writing puts (at cycle bottoms) and writing covered calls (at cycle tops), these staple solid dividend paying blue chips will start to return a significant cash-on-ACB return.

In particular, I like the foreign-based companies Diageo (DEO) of London UK and Ambev (ABV) of Sao Paulo Brazil.

The PE's of ABV, WAG and WFMI are too high today, but would be respectable in an Accumulation zone, after a market shake-out.

Ambev is not that financially solid following two years of rapid expansion and lower profits, but if there is a major pull-back (and interest rates don't skyrocket) I like the company. It has excellent operating margins.

The best bet of this group is Diageo, although if I stop drinking Guinness their sales are likely to suffer. LOL

The best run food retailer in the world, bar none, is Whole Food Markets Inc (NDQ: WFMI).

And yes I still like Wal-Mart. They have a big upside to expansion in China and elsewhere in the emerging countries. But I also like the opportunities that are going to exist now for Wal-Mart via the Internet, particularly for upscale consumer products.

---

Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

IYH was #2 best performer this week after being runner-up a week ago also. IYH closed up +1.71 pct to 64.12.

A week ago, I said that NASA in Houston had sent PFE (+9.5 pct W/W) and MRK (+3.0 pct W/W) into outer space. This week the journey continued. MRK +7.30 pct, and PFE +6.11 pct W/W were the Dow's #1 and #2 performers.

But do they have enough fuel for a controlled landing, or are they going to crash and burn after a free-fall to earth? After Congress returns from vacation, and the regulatory and legal discussions heat up, these are stocks that will likely suffer again.

---

Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

The Financials (XLF) closed up +0.63 W/W to 32.18. Maybe I should just forget how they make money, and give them credit for making it?

Then again, with the treasury yield curve inverting, I want to stick around for the magic show. These banks are now backing up to their six-week glass ceiling. If they break through, then I'll know they're all Big Swinging Dicks.

I remain short.

---

Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

The chip technology ETF (SMH) dropped "0.71 pct W/W to 37.77. A week earlier I noted: "On Friday I noticed a few weak spots. So SMH might be ready soon to drop down to a new lower trading range". This week was a good start.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

Somebody doesn't like the sector. IYZ was down "2.65 to 23.16.

Maybe Wall Street didn't like my attempt at humor last week: "I used Vioxx for three weeks, and starting getting heart pains. I want a billion!"... versus: "I've been using my cell phone for years now and nobody told me I was going to get brain cancer!" Can you imagine what the class-action lawsuits are going to look like?"

Do you remember the original (1977) "Dick and Jane" movie where the robbers (George Segal and Jane Fonda) go in to rob Ma Bell, to the applause of the customers waiting in line?

Some things never change!

Now the new "Fun With Dick and Jane" movie is out. Bear market '77 started Christmas Week '76 then too.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

XLU (Utilities) was 2nd worst performer this week, down "1.42 pct to 31.85. Last week I wrote, "While erratic, the natural gas market is a strong one heading into the winter." This week the weather warmed up for the marchers on their way to and from work in Manhattan.

Thankfully the transit strike is over, because mid-week the weather turns cold again.

Just in time for a couple snowbirds to beat it out of here.

---

Bonds:

TLT was strongly up again this week to 91.80, which is a gain of +2.00 pct, after last week's gain of +1.30 pct. Thursday and Friday were huge days after traders realized that just maybe it's true that (i) consumers have no tickee for Wal-Mart or Best Buy, or Disney or GM, or ...., and (ii) there won't be any more wealth effect from last year's housing boom, because there won't be any more housing boom.

I have been wrong about bonds, possibly because I haven't been working at the Treasury or the Fed to observe the wads of USD being printed to keep those interest rates from exploding upwards.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.80	3.81	3.74	3.75
6 Month	4.11	4.11	4.09	4.08
2 Year	4.34	4.37	4.34	4.33
3 Year	4.32	4.36	4.33	4.34
5 Year	4.30	4.36	4.34	4.36
10 Year	4.37	4.42	4.43	4.46
30 Year	4.54	4.60	4.64	4.69

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.00	2.99	2.96	2.95
2yr AAA	2.99	2.97	2.98	2.95
2yr A	3.09	3.11	3.15	3.00
5yr AAA	3.25	3.25	3.26	3.22
5yr AA	3.27	3.27	3.29	3.29
5yr A	3.35	3.40	3.36	3.32
10yr AAA	3.64	3.68	3.68	3.64
10yr AA	3.63	3.68	3.66	3.64
10yr A	3.82	3.90	3.81	3.88
20yr AAA	4.06	4.09	4.10	4.10
20yr AA	4.03	4.06	4.07	4.08
20yr A	4.31	4.32	4.26	4.21

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.47	4.51	4.48	4.46
2yr A	4.52	4.54	4.53	4.52
5yr AAA	4.63	4.63	4.66	4.65
5yr AA	4.62	4.68	4.68	4.66
5yr A	4.70	4.76	4.76	4.76
10yr AAA	5.21	5.16	5.24	5.21
10yr AA	4.98	4.98	5.07	5.05
10yr A	5.07	5.10	5.12	5.13
20yr AAA	5.53	5.54	5.59	5.53
20yr AA	5.54	5.68	5.67	5.69
20yr A	5.58	5.62	5.69	5.79

Bond yields are falling, which I suppose also makes dividend yields more relatively attractive.

The Treasury yield curve however has started to invert. The 5-year yield is now less than the 2-year. And the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year is just (drum roll!) 3 basis points.

Alert. Alert.

The spread between the 3-month T-Bill and the 10-year is at the ridiculously low level of 57 basis points. Nobody wants to borrow. Actually, they have no more credit on which to borrow. Did you think of that?

Interest rates and bond yields.

US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

For the interest-sensitive equities, FNM and FRE enjoyed another good week, but, if you like to read chart patterns, there seems to be an issue with double tops.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities:

The Commodities Research Bureau (CRB) Index was flat (down "0.02 pct W/W) at 326.31.

$CRB seems to be basing for another run at the cycle top of 341.53, which could be the high for many months to come, especially if Crude Oil settles down here.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

XOM was down on the week "1.7 pct, and Crude Oil contracts (NY Crude EOD chart at StockCharts: $WTIC) were down "1.22 pct to 58.33 this week.

A week ago I reported that "the cycle high of 62.85 was hit Tuesday. I still see support at about 56." And I still do, but every time oil comes down, there is a lot of cheerleading from Washington, which makes an oil trader nervous if long oil.

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Gold:

Gold closed flat this week.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

Silver was up +0.59 pct W/W to 8.57.

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

Platinum closed up +0.45 pct W/W at $965.30.

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

Palladium was down significantly "2.58 pct W/W to 257.55.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

Copper was up +0.80 pct W/W to 205.13, just off the record high closing week price of 205.86.

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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The Philly goldminer index ($XAU) was up +2.17 pct W/W to 125.02. It's closing in on its high of 127.00 of just two weeks ago. So all you goldminer bears ought to have another look at the charts.

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The XGD Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF TSE:XGD was very strong.

XGD was up +3.79 pct W/W to 61.03. I'm long; and I'm glad I recommended hanging in.

Here are the Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

XGD Hourly data:

For an interactive look, here are links to the Hourly data charts of three groups of proven goldminer stocks. You can click on the tabs for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts.

List #1

List #2

List #3

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Forex:

The trade-weighted USD index rallied by +1.32 pct W/W to 90.89. The "Snow" man must be working extra hard to repatriate those USD that have been hanging around Europe, Asia Pacific and the Caribbean.

And speaking of the "Cara" man. Did you see that TV commercial where an American family pushes their Cara-van off a cliff so they could go out and buy a KIA from Korea? I'm insulted. :-)

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

After being up +2.50 pct the past two weeks, the Euro (priced in USD) was down "1.16 pct W/W this week.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

---

International Equities:

The Japanese market was strong once again. But, the UK was crushed.

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan had another superb week, up +2.79 pct W/W to 13.65 on the EWJ.

I think that after a weaker-than-expected reading in the Bank of Japan's tankan business confidence survey, it should be reasonable to expect the JPY to weaken too, and maybe the Nikkei Dow and TOPIX as well. Not!

Do you believe the strength of the Japanese equity market in the past couple months? I mean even California home-owners never came close to seeing gains like this. This pop in Japan just goes to show how bad things must be elsewhere, or else, simply, the market is over-bought there. Actually, I think both.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The U.K. ETF (EWU) was beaten down "3.21 pct W/W to 18.72 as rumors got out that Sir Elton was sending his gazillions home to his new Mommie in Canada, and that Sir Black is being refused to switch his UK citizenship for Canada. Score Canada 2, UK zero.

Anyway, a week ago I wrote: "The EWU STO is now up to 95, which is nosebleed territory. The RSI is still at 68, so EWU might go up a week or so from here, but it is clearly over-bought. There appears to be a double-top forming in 2H05. That's a negative btw." BAM.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The Canadian (EWC) equity-market ETF was flat (+0.09 pct W/W) at 21.86.

The election campaign is just as bland. I watched the leaders' debate in French just to see if forked-tongue could be stretched four ways.

In any language, these politicos are giving away more money than Canadians have in their bank accounts. Yes, the fraudulent practice of buying votes with the voters' own money is prevalent in Canada too.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

Of the major U.S. equity indexes, only the Russell small cap index was strong, and mildly so, by +0.49 pct W/W to 686.44. The strength in small caps, as modest as it was, started first thing Tuesday and carried through Friday's close. I see that as a bit of speculation in the Christmas rally. What I don't see is a lot of insider purchases of stocks in these smaller companies.

The Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq were all basically flat on the week. The Dow 30 (10,883.27) and S&P500 (1268.66) were up +0.06 and +0.11 pct W/W, and the Naz (2249.42) was down "0.14 pct.

Nothing going on there. "So it looks like a year-end rally coming to the year-end, and no place to go... but down."

I wrote that a week ago. Same old, same old.

There is no pricing power in the U.S. economy, as strong as politicians say it is. Sure the U.S. (and Canadian) economy is stronger today than it was a year ago, but it is not healthy, and the flat (and inverting) yield curve tells us so. Large cap shares are rising mostly on the basis of share buy-backs.

As I see it as 2005 comes to a close, the housing boom may have come to a close, but there is going to be a slow leak in the balloon, rather than a pop. Just prior to the start of 4Q05, I noted some questionable rallying moves in the banks, and suggested at the time that maybe the Administration was reflating. I think we all see that's now the case.

That move may extend the economic strength for a few quarters but traders are wary. They have chased the equities about +7 pct off 2nd week October lows, but have not had any appetite for taking the stock market higher " at least not without another round of rising house prices and higher mortgages.

After rotating at the upper end of the trading range for six weeks now, the momentum indicators have now reached a weakened state. The broad equities must move higher now (next two weeks) or else the indexes will start to fall, and continue to fall for the next several months.

This coming week may see a sell-off in the weakest stocks, but I think the broad sell-off will not likely start until the 1st or 2nd week of January.

The lead story that I expect to hear a week or two after equity prices start falling is "Credit Bubble". I started down this road a couple weeks ago because I wanted to be early to the party.

---

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
MRK	32.20	0.19	0.59%	7.30%	10.54%	3.94%	3.01%	16.58%	3.04%	-0.31%
PFE	23.96	-0.10	-0.42%	6.11%	16.20%	10.57%	-9.41%	-3.70%	-17.09%	-8.09%
AIG	68.10	0.20	0.29%	4.53%	3.15%	-1.12%	3.13%	13.39%	23.44%	2.73%
AA	29.45	0.12	0.41%	4.32%	4.62%	7.76%	-4.97%	20.60%	8.31%	-6.18%
MMM	78.60	-0.04	-0.05%	1.96%	0.95%	0.36%	-4.61%	8.34%	3.60%	-4.78%
PG	58.88	0.10	0.17%	1.33%	2.70%	2.79%	6.69%	3.77%	9.73%	5.92%
JPM	40.31	0.26	0.65%	1.31%	3.04%	3.73%	2.96%	18.32%	12.19%	2.94%
DD	43.01	0.12	0.28%	1.20%	0.35%	-0.32%	-12.44%	10.91%	-5.33%	-12.24%
BA	71.49	0.17	0.24%	1.05%	2.64%	3.52%	40.26%	13.12%	15.57%	33.55%
AXP	52.31	0.01	0.02%	0.73%	2.27%	-0.59%	-6.44%	-8.07%	-2.55%	-7.30%
SBC	24.91	-0.14	-0.56%	0.57%	4.27%	4.75%	-2.66%	4.62%	5.24%	-1.03%
JNJ	61.11	-0.21	-0.34%	0.41%	1.68%	-1.67%	-2.85%	-4.50%	-6.49%	-3.92%
HON	37.95	-0.36	-0.94%	0.18%	6.27%	2.79%	7.51%	1.25%	1.50%	6.30%
IBM	83.48	0.26	0.31%	0.13%	-4.01%	-5.99%	-14.60%	7.03%	10.70%	-14.57%
VZ	30.48	-0.21	-0.68%	-0.03%	-1.93%	-4.69%	-24.72%	-5.22%	-12.21%	-25.20%
KO	41.15	-0.13	-0.31%	-0.15%	-0.87%	-3.86%	-0.94%	-2.83%	-4.46%	-0.87%
C	49.24	0.05	0.10%	-0.26%	0.67%	-0.57%	2.01%	8.84%	5.03%	1.01%
HPQ	28.77	-0.13	-0.45%	-0.52%	-3.84%	-3.23%	36.67%	1.05%	17.96%	36.61%
MCD	34.55	-0.03	-0.09%	-0.58%	-0.83%	3.26%	8.58%	5.85%	20.93%	6.87%
MSFT	26.64	0.05	0.19%	-0.97%	-3.86%	-4.03%	-0.37%	5.42%	5.25%	-1.37%
UTX	57.28	-0.57	-0.99%	-1.29%	3.36%	5.47%	11.22%	10.79%	9.38%	8.57%
INTC	25.97	0.00	0.00%	-1.55%	-0.42%	-3.13%	12.57%	6.52%	-2.99%	10.32%
MO	76.05	-0.79	-1.03%	-1.64%	5.32%	3.51%	25.43%	5.76%	14.88%	25.02%
XOM	57.09	-0.01	-0.02%	-1.67%	-2.41%	-5.02%	13.97%	-10.63%	-3.27%	9.85%
DIS	24.27	0.08	0.33%	-1.74%	-3.65%	-3.11%	-12.85%	4.52%	-7.61%	-12.03%
GE	35.42	0.00	0.00%	-1.77%	-0.31%	-2.15%	-3.20%	6.05%	2.19%	-3.67%
WMT	48.34	-0.26	-0.53%	-1.89%	0.54%	-4.26%	-9.39%	11.90%	0.96%	-8.01%
CAT	58.51	0.06	0.10%	-1.89%	0.72%	0.97%	23.10%	-0.70%	18.83%	20.27%
HD	41.59	0.16	0.39%	-2.14%	1.39%	-1.96%	-3.50%	7.94%	6.26%	-2.19%
GM	18.83	0.19	1.02%	-13.98%	-17.88%	-17.63%	-53.28%	-39.39%	-44.34%	-52.72%

This performance chart of the Dow 30 shows 14 stocks up and 16 down this week.

Lets take a look at what happened:

The five big winners out of 14 on the week:

MRK, up +7.30 pct:
PFE, up +6.11 pct:
AIG, up +4.53 pct:
AA, up +4.32 pct:
MMM, up +1.96 pct:

The five big losers out of 16 this week:

GM, down "13.98 pct:
HD, down "2.14 pct:
CAT, down "1.89 pct:
WMT, down "1.89 pct:
GE, down "1.77 pct:

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

(AA) (AA) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on AA: next one is due Jan. 20)

(AIG) (AIG) (Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on AIG: next one is due Feb. 25)

(AXP) (AXP) (Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on AXP: next one is due Feb. 25)

(BA) (BA) (Here is the Dec. 23 Value Line report on BA: next one is due Mar. 24)

(C) (C) (Here is the Nov. 26 Value Line report on C: next one is due Feb. 25)

(CAT) (CAT) (Here is the Oct. 28 Value Line report on CAT: next one is due Jan. 27)

(DD) (DD) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on DD: next one is due Jan. 20)

(DIS) (DIS) (Here is the Nov. 18 Value Line report on DIS: next one is due Feb. 18)

(GE) (GE) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on GE: next one is due Jan. 13)

(GM) (GM) Here is the Sep. 2 Value Line report on GM: next one is due Dec. 2)

(HD) (HD) (Here is the Oct. 7 Value Line report on HD: next one is due Jan. 6)

(HON) (HON) (Here is the Oct. 28 Value Line report on HON: next one is due Jan. 27)

(HPQ) (HPQ) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on HPQ: next one is due Jan. 13)

(IBM) (IBM) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on IBM: next one is due Jan. 13)

(INTC) (INTC) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on INTC: next one is due Jan. 13)

(JNJ) (JNJ) Here is the Sep. 3 Value Line report on JNJ: next one is due Dec. 2)

(JPM) (JPM) Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on JPM: next one is due Feb. 25)

(KO) (KO) (Here is the Nov. 4 Value Line report on KO: next one is due Feb. 3)

(MCD) (MCD) (Here is the Dec. 9 Value Line report on MCD: next one is due Mar. 10)

(MMM) (MMM) (Here is the Nov 18 Value Line report on MMM: next one is due Feb 18)

(MO) (MO) (Here is the Nov.4 Value Line report on MO: next one is due Feb. 3)

(MRK) (MRK) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on MRK: next one is due Jan. 20)

(MSFT) (MSFT) (Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on MSFT: next one is due Feb. 25)

(PFE) (PFE) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on PFE: next one is due Jan. 20)

(PG) (PG) (Here is the Oct. 7 Value Line report on PG: next one is due Jan. 6)

(SBC/T) (SBC/T) (Here is the Sep. 30 Value Line report on SBC: next one is due Dec. 30 under the ticker symbol T)

(UTX) (UTX) (Here is the Oct. 28 Value Line report on UTX: next one is due Jan. 27)

(VZ) (VZ) (Here is the Sep. 30 Value Line report on VZ: next one is due Dec. 30)

(WMT) (WMT) (Here is the Nov. 11 Value Line report on WMT: next one is due Feb. 11)

(XOM) (XOM) (Here is the Dec. 16 Value Line report on XOM: next one is due Mar. 17)

The Value Line Report for this week is BA. Boeing, like competitor Airbus, has enjoyed a solid year in terms of operating performance. With the price of BA today into the middle of VL's projected range for 2008-2010, analyst Morton Siegel now calls BA over-priced. They dropped their Technical Rating on BA a notch.

Next week's VL reports on T (SBC) and VZ ought to be interesting. I don't know how T can go any higher from these levels. After hitting $25.58 on Dec-06, the "new" T closed this week at $24.63.

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Wrap up

We had 29 at our family Christmas Eve party from far and wide, including Ottawa, Thornbury and Toronto, plus North Carolina and New Jersey. It usually takes me a couple days to recover from these things.

I hope you enjoyed yours as much as I did mine.

BCara@BillCara.com