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December 17, 2005

Week #50 (2005-12-17) in Review

Summary:

A week ago, I spoke of the increasing clouds in equity markets, where the Dow 30 was down "0.9 pct, the S&P 500 down "0.5 pct and the Naz down "0.7 pct. It was not a good week. Strangely, some of you thought this one was a good one, but except for a few big cap big winners (PFE, MRK, MO, HON and UTX) this week actually had a flat to down broad market in the U.S.

Yes, a week ago I wrote: "As I see it, the U.S. equity and debt markets and currency are transitioning from secular bull to a bear phase. I surmise that debt-laden markets are on the tipping point should rates continue much north from here, and with mild inflation at hand, the market bulls are telling you that there is no inflation. But what they really fear is not inflation, but rising interest rates, and even a stronger economy is going to raise rates. So there will be a bear. My thinking is that the longer this bull runs, the more baggage it will carry on its back, and the faster and further it will tumble " like 1987."

I want to repeat that because the year-end rally that started the second week of October is now very long in the tooth, and cash available to come into equities at this point (see RYDEX) is near gone. According to %K Stochastics on the Hourly data for the broad equity indexes, which were pulled down to zero to ~15 at the Friday close, there is likely to be a pop to the upside on Monday morning.

That excitement will be followed by extreme hype from the CNBC talking heads and guests in their new show format, which, like their neighborhood gang member Howard Stern, starts on Monday. Madison Avenue spinmeisters will be working full-time to kick this off, which will suck the last available dollars into the market.

By late next week, I think you'll be clearly seeing the bearish patterns of falling pennants as stocks get distributed to the suckers who have been conditioned like Pavlov's Dogs. Beware of Dogs. You'll be seeing plenty.


Portfolio/Trades: This week's performance continued to outperform. Again I did nothing, partly for reasons explained elsewhere. I am disappointed because I could have had a very good week.

I still have 78-pct in cash or near-cash, with 12-pct in gold and silver stocks (a major over-weighting) plus a minor-over-weighting in carefully selected energy. A 2-pct holding in gold and silver miner call options was closed over a week ago (into strength) and moved into the equities. Ten pct is spread across all other (non basic material) sectors except Financials.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Seven up; 3 down. Except for Friday, could have been 10/10 up, but not to worry, I'll sell the long XLP for +5 pct gain on Monday, and start adding to shorts across the board

10: Energy (XLE): Over-weighted: winter ahead; week's worst performer
15: Basic Materials (XLB): Over-weighted: metals will recover; 2nd worst performer
20: Industrials (XLI): Market-weighted: good week; up +0.6 pct (HON, UTX, BA)
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): Market-weighted: consumers have no tickee
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): Market-weighted: consumers must like smoking; MO >7pct
35: Healthcare (IYZ): Market-weighted: ignoring Big Pharma troubles; PFE +9.5 pct
40: Financial (XLF): Under-weighted: flat week; big earnings for banks
45: Technology (SMH chips): Market-weighted: flat week; bad signs on Fri.
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): Under-weighted: week's loss taken entirely Fri.
55: Utilities (XLU): Market-weighted: #3 weekly performer

Bonds: Modest gain, with confused trading; one good move all week

Commodities: The index moderately down on oil and precious metal

Oil & Gas: modest loss on the week, after big day Tuesday

Gold: Gold was down sharply like all the precious metals. Trying to hold psychological level at $500; appears to be holding here

Goldminers: Shares of North American miners made major high on Mon. and sold down till Wed., then strong into close Fri; relatively much stronger than the metal

Forex: The euro-bear definitely hibernated, and USD bear is growling in major forex moves

International Equities: While the U.S. equity markets flounder, EWJ (Japan) flourished, up +2.7 pct W/W

U.S. Equities : The Naz down "0.2 pct and Russell small caps down "0.8 pct W/W while about five Dow stocks pushed the Dow and S&P 500 to modest gain. Eighteen Dow stocks up on the week, but Friday only about 10 held up.


ETF Portfolio:

Weekly
Daily
30-Minute

Short:
XLF (29.13) 31.98 -9.8 pct
IYZ (23.50) 23.79 -1.2 pct
EWH (13.03) 12.99 +0.3 pct

Long:
TSX: XGD (53.03) 58.80 +10.9 pct
XLP (22.75) 23.81 +4.6 pct
IYH (60.54) N/A +3.12 pct SOLD

My sample portfolio continued to gain: to being up +9.1 pct vs +7.9 pct and +2.2 pct in the prior two weeks. This week's consumer staple ETF (XLP) was the big help, and remember this was the one I "forgot" to sell. Even though I don't smoke, thank you MO. I'll be selling XLP into strength Monday or Tuesday, smoke or no smoke


Sector ETF:

Here are the ETF charts I follow for the ten sectors of the U.S. equity market:

10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

15 (basic materials: XLB)ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ

55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU


Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N, but is otherwise unsorted.

Symbol Close Net %Net 1W %Net 2W %Net 4W %Net YTD %Net 3M %Net 6M %Net Yr %Net
XLP 23.81 -0.13 -0.54% 1.93% 1.19% 2.01% 3.16% 3.16% 1.97% 3.07%
IYH 63.04 0.05 0.08% 1.48% 1.40% 1.42% 8.20% -0.68% 1.51% 6.74%
XLU 32.31 -0.29 -0.89% 0.97% 2.34% 3.46% 17.36% -3.81% 5.18% 16.60%
XLI 31.67 -0.14 -0.44% 0.64% -0.06% 2.23% 2.89% 5.18% 4.90% 1.80%
SMH 38.04 -0.28 -0.73% 0.26% -2.29% 5.34% 16.47% 3.12% 10.42% 16.01%
XLF 31.98 -0.13 -0.40% 0.25% -0.40% 1.40% 5.13% 6.78% 7.86% 5.58%
XLY 33.41 -0.24 -0.71% 0.15% -0.54% 1.33% -4.71% 0.81% -0.57% -3.97%
IYZ 23.79 -0.07 -0.29% -0.34% -1.08% 1.75% -1.49% -0.87% 0.98% -1.90%
XLB 29.80 -0.35 -1.16% -1.36% -1.06% 1.98% 1.26% 7.08% 3.01% 1.15%
XLE 51.07 -1.41 -2.69% -1.45% -0.20% 4.18% 46.00% -2.31% 12.86% 41.12%


Last week it was 7 down and 3 up. This week the opposite happened, and without a few hits on Friday, the week could have been 10/10 up.

No problem; be happy. Friday was a set up to power up on Monday, followed shortly after by somebody shouting "Fire!" in the theater. I'm taking a guess that by the close next week, there will be oh seven down and three up.



Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)


Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Weekly Data

XLE Daily data:

XLE Daily Data

XLE Hourly data:

XLE Hourly Data


XLE was down "1.45 pct W/W, wiping out the previous week's gain. But Friday was the killer, down "2.7 pct on the day, closing at 51.07.

Worst performer on the week. But winter's coming. All-time record snowfall for Montreal this weekend. The northeast took a hit. That was just the first of maybe fifteen storms to come.

I am modestly over-weighted in Energy within a portfolio that is grossly over-weighted in cash. But I don't have big hopes, and may soon sell into strength.



Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLB Weekly data:

XLB Weekly Data

XLB Daily data:

XLB Daily Data

XLB Hourly data:

XLB Hourly Data

XLB was second worst performer on the week, down "1.36 pct W/W to 29.80. Traders were too busy watching the metals prices drop, but they should have been watching the metals stocks more closely.

Friday was down "1.2 pct on the day, and the selling started Wed. Traders had been watching the metals get creamed at the start of the week. But the metals started to pick up on Thursday, so the stock traders were a couple days behind the curve.



Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)


Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Weekly Data

XLI Daily data:

XLI Daily Data

XLI Hourly data:

XLI Hourly Data

XLI was up +0.64 pct W/W to 31.67, so the past two weeks was a wash.

There were some huge moves in this sector this week, which is appropriate given the huge hit to the USD. These companies are major exporters that love the cheaper USD, and this week was a doozy for a cheaper USD.

So you combine that with selling a gazillion dollars worth of Boeing Dreamliners to Australia Qantas Airlines, and a very sizable order of United Technologies elevators to China, and it was a pretty good week for America's manufacturers.

Now, just crush the USD to near zero, and there will be an endless number of Otis elevators and Boeing airplanes, fitted with GE jet engines and Honeywell technology moving into the "emerging" world.

The only problem is that Little People will never again be able to afford travelling there again, what with $1,000 a night economy hotel rooms and $25 lunches (coke and a hotdog).

Regardless of the state of the USD, I see danger ahead.


Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Weekly Data

XLY Daily data:

XLY Daily Data

XLY Hourly data:

XLY Hourly Data


XLY was up +0.15 pct to 23.81, which really means it was flat W/W.

Selling started Thursday, and Friday was down "0.7 pct on the day. So I see danger here too.



Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)


Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:


XLP Weekly Data

XLP Daily data:


XLP Daily Data

XLP Hourly data:


XLP Hourly Data


XLP (Consumer Staples) was up +1.93 pct W/W to 23.81, which just goes to show what a friendly judge can do for product makers (MO) worried about their cost to insure products that kill people or make them sick.



Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)


Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


IYH Weekly data:


IYH Weekly Data

IYH Daily data:


IYH Daily Data

IYH Hourly data:


IYH Hourly Data


IYH was 2nd best performer this week, up +1.48 pct to 63.04. Anyway, a week ago I said: "I'm glad I got out. I don't need the drugs; I'm already overly medicated."

I hardly took notice that Houston sent PFE (+9.5 pct W/W) and MRK (+3.0 pct W/W) into outer space.

Seriously, I ask, with healthcare costs going crazy, are legislators not going to be hot into a Big Pharma debate when they return in January. Besides Pfizer was off "3.2 pct the week earlier; Merck was down "3.3 pct the week before that.

Did these companies all of a sudden fix their problems?


Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Weekly Data

XLF Daily data:

XLF Daily Data

XLF Hourly data:

XLF Hourly Data


The Financials (XLF) had the optics this week of some really terrific earnings from Humungous Bank & Broker. Gold "man" Sachs and Lehman Boys were really cranking out the E. XLF closed up +0.25 W/W to 31.98.

But the group just looks that much worse " stock price wise " than it did a week earlier. Now the RSI and %K Stochastics look downright ugly. The Weekly data RSI is over 70, which is high for an ETF like XLF. I mean traders are starting to play bank stocks like Black 16, and then again, maybe they have good reason to.

After all, most of the trading done by banks today is done by black box, which like LTCM are great in theory.


Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)


Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


SMH Weekly data:

SMH Weekly Data

SMH Daily data:

SMH Daily Data

SMH Hourly data:

SMH Hourly Data


The chip technology ETF (SMH) was like XLF this week: flat. It gained +0.26 pct W/W to 38.04, but on Friday I noticed a few weak spots. So SMH might be ready soon to drop down to a new lower trading range.


Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Weekly Data

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Daily Data

IYZ Hourly data:

IYZ Hourly Data

IYZ was down "0.34 to 23.79.

Isn't it interesting how all the North American telco operators are telling you and me that they are going to be propelled into great profitability soon on the back of wireless? But didn't cell phones come out in like 1981? And what are these phone companies going to do with their fixed line technology? Dump it in the ocean?

These telcos are doing one thing new: charging users by the minute, and you know how people like to gab. So, what's an hour or two on the phone " other than radiation maybe?

Can you imagine what the class-action lawsuits are going to look like?

"I used Vioxx for three weeks and starting getting heart pains. I want a billion!"... versus: "I've been using my cell phone for years now and nobody told me I was going to get brain cancer!"



Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:


XLU Weekly Data

XLU Daily data:

XLU Daily Data

XLU Hourly data:

XLU Hourly Data


XLU (Utilities) was 3rd best performer this week, up +0.97 pct to 32.31. While erratic, the natural gas market is a strong one heading into the winter.


Bonds:

TLT was strongly up this week to 90.70, which is a gain of +1.30 pct.

I may have said "BONDS AWAY" a week early. But bonds across the board are now over-bought per RSI and %K STO. I don't think they will do as well next week.

In fact, this week I noted a first hour ridiculous gap to the upside, followed by a sell-off and then a high close. Besides that, the gap open to the upside on Wednesday made the whole week's gain for TLT, which makes me awfully suspicious.


Weekly data charts:

TNX0X Weekly Data

IRX0X Weekly Data

Daily data charts:

TNX0X Daily Data

IRX0X Daily Data

Hourly data charts:

TNX0X Daily Data

IRX0X Daily Data


US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
3 Month 3.71 3.72 3.84 3.80
6 Month 4.09 4.13 4.11 4.12
2 Year 4.34 4.39 4.39 4.48
3 Year 4.34 4.40 4.40 4.51
5 Year 4.35 4.41 4.43 4.54
10 Year 4.44 4.51 4.51 4.60
30 Year 4.65 4.72 4.71 4.79

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.89
2yr AAA 2.97 2.98 2.97 2.89
2yr A 2.96 2.89 3.16 2.94
5yr AAA 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.23
5yr AA 3.26 3.26 3.27 3.25
5yr A 3.35 3.34 3.34 3.37
10yr AAA 3.70 3.72 3.71 3.76
10yr AA 3.69 3.71 3.69 3.74
10yr A 3.81 3.82 3.86 3.96
20yr AAA 4.14 4.15 4.14 4.21
20yr AA 4.10 4.12 4.13 4.18
20yr A 4.24 4.25 4.23 4.35
Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 4.46 4.54 4.55 4.60
2yr A 4.53 4.59 4.59 4.65
5yr AAA 4.56 4.67 4.67 4.77
5yr AA 4.68 4.74 4.74 4.82
5yr A 4.77 4.83 4.83 4.88
10yr AAA 5.13 5.20 5.18 5.27
10yr AA 5.01 5.10 5.13 5.18
10yr A 5.13 5.19 5.17 5.22
20yr AAA 5.50 5.59 5.59 5.56
20yr AA 5.72 5.72 5.70 5.80
20yr A 5.77 5.75 5.71 5.81

Not much has happened in the Treasury yield curve in two weeks. But yields have come down a bit, sending bond prices up. Behind that move is the hyped up inflation data ("biggest plunge in 56 years!"), plus a dollop of hope, and the realization that if equities are going to rally, the dividend yields are not going to look as attractive.


Interest rates and bond yields.


Just like the previous week where on Tuesday and Thursday morning, there was a bit of pop in the bond market, this week the FOMC move was used to hype the interest-sensitive equities on Wednesday, and bonds on Wed. and Fri..

I just get very suspicious when a whole week's move is compacted into an hour or two, and then everybody points to a good week.


Bond Yields Curve


CFC, FNM and FRE all popped up after the FOMC, but by Friday, FRE was showing weakness.


US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts


SHY Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For SHY

IEF Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For IEF

TLT Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For TLT

AGG Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For AGG

LQD Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For LQD

TIP Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For TIP

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts


SHY Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For SHY

IEF Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For IEF

TLT Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For TLT

AGG Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For AGG

LQD Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For LQD

TIP Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For TIP


US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts


SHY Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts


SHY Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For SHY

IEF Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For IEF

TLT Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For TLT

AGG Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For AGG

LQD Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For LQD

TIP Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For TIP

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts CIT

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts FRE

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts SLM

Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CIT

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts SLM

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts CIT

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts FRE

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts SLM



Commodities:


The Commodities Research Bureau (CRB) Index " since Nov-18 called the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index " was down "0.44 pct W/W to 326.36. Not bad.

But listening to CNBC's Larry Kudlow you'd think it went to zero, and that the USD really had a great week. NOT.

After $CRB could not establish a new high when oil and gold had peaked Monday and Tuesday, there was a big sell-off of commodities after $CRB hit a new high (341.53) on Tuesday. I'm surprised the index wasn't off more. I'm glad it wasn't.

Do we really need to have CRB re-branded with those two names? What an insult.

Besides, the names Jefferies isn't so hot in my books after the 1980's conviction of founder Boyd Jefferies, along with other notable scoundrels like Ivan Boesky and Michael Milken, for stockmarket manipulation. I just don't understand why Jefferies would not change the name.

Reminds me to tell you about a great stock market book " one of the best of all time " "The Predators' Ball: The inside story of Drexel Burnham and the rise of the junk bond raiders" Connie Bruck, 1989.

This is a must-read for traders who want to have a look into the demise of capital market integrity in the 1980's by some of the leading people on Wall Street. Same thing is going on today with so-called "Private Equity" gangs.

I'm not talking about hedge fund traders, who are completely legit; I'm saying Private Equity gangs. They don't need to sell high-yield bonds, they simply use the low borrowing rates today, and some expertise in bankruptcy law and about the workings of defined benefit pension plans, to pull off theft.

And while on that point, it's easy to scare unsophisticated people about a Stelco underfunded pension plan (US$1 billion) as the reason for bankruptcy, but have a look today at the funding shortfall of the Exxon Mobil pension fund.

To save you some time, XOM's pension assets are $18 billion, and the liability is $26.2 billion. So, if the deficit is so much a problem, why doesn't Lee Raymond just use some of that $34 billion in cash to set things right?

My point is that issues become problems when people want them to look that way. Then when thieves get into the picture, the issues become emergency problems in need of a 100 pct screw job on the shareholders, plus hundreds of millions of dollars borrowed from taxpayer's funds in trust with the government.

But I digress. Reuters/Jefferies CRB and Boyd Jefferies got me started.


Weekly CRB Commodities Index:


CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart


Weekly Crude Oil:

Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Daily Crude Oil:

Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Speaking of XOM, Crude Oil contracts (NY Crude EOD chart at StockCharts: $WTIC) were down "0.57 pct to 59.05 this week. Spot dropped to $58.06.

A cycle high of 62.85 was hit Tuesday. I still see support at about 56.



Gold:


Gold closed down "4.40 pct W/W to 503.20 (Continuous contracts) after being up that much the prior week. Spot closed at 502.50.

It was quite a week as Gold hit a spike top of $541.00 on Monday, followed by free fall that apparently started in Japan triggered by a doubling of margin requirements on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange and a piling into the Yen as the USD simultaneously went into free-fall.

My antennae told me something big was about to happen so I got up at 3:00 am ET, and I started reporting ("your faithful servant") at 3:40 am.

Some people think I don't sleep. Truly I do " but with one eye open on the market monitor.

A week ago I warned: "Tuesday is going to a test of the faithful. It's FOMC Day. Rate Hike Day. What's this? Thirteen first downs and counting?"

Anyway, gold and silver, platinum and palladium prices came out of their funk on Thursday. Whew!

And for those who think that it was the Little People of India and China suddenly throwing away their gold to street people, think again. No, no, no. The Little People are still hoarding their gold this week, and will be next one and the one after that.

And if you are not convinced then Larry Kudlow must have you believing that the Little People of India and China were also throwing away their platinum and palladium at precisely the same moment. NOT. They don't even know what platinum and palladium are for Pete's sake.

Oxen and rice paddies, maybe.

No, somehow I think these were some of Larry's friends in Washington and in the upstairs trading rooms at Humungous Bank & Broker. In fact I kinda think the "Gold" man Sachs knows a lot more than he's telling us.

You see, if the "Gold" man is "commercially" short a gazillion contracts on the COMEX as I suspect, he has got to take the metals prices down a notch or thirty in order to square his books. Otherwise this week's humungous profit report would not have been so befitting the name.

Do you think Eliot Spitzer could look into this on behalf of the Little People? That good deed might even propel him into the White House in 2012.


Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

If gold was down "4.4 pct on the week, then silver was worse.

For the squeamish, $SILVER was down "5.42 pct W/W to $8.52. Ouch!

Back in the ‘80's I used to hear the Silver Crazies say that word a lot. But they are a persistent group. There are more conspiracy theorists among the Silver Crazies than at the opening of an Oliver Stone or Michael Moore movie.

But like I say, "Even Texans don't mess with silver & gold bugs when the action heats up."


Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.


Platinum closed flat at $1006.90. Actually that was a week ago.

This week, platinum closed at $961, which is a hit of about $46 on the week. In fact in 3.5 days, platinum was down to a low of $946.00, which like silver, palladium and gold gave the shorts time to cover, and make a few dollars for the year-end vacation.


And no, the Little People of India and China were not gifting their platinum to GM and Ford to help cut the costs of engine parts. Just a rumor, started by that guy LeBeau in Chicago. LOL


Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

Palladium was up +5.27 pct W/W to 285.87. A week earlier it was up +2.78 pct.

Palladium outdistanced all the other precious metals on the downside for the 3.5 day free-fall. PALL was down "7.52 pct W/W to close at $264.38.

And I thought they had friends in Zug! Maybe those friends " the Metal Men " are AC-DC? Ever thought of that?


Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

Aha, here is a metal that did not crash. Copper was down, but by just "0.45 pct W/W to 204.49. Copper had hit a record high of 205.86 just two weeks ago, and has stayed snuggled up ever since.

So, the short squeeze is still on, or else the world demand truly is that great. I guess the Party Exec Committee can lift more copper than all the Little People.


Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.



While gold was crashing "4.4 pct on the week, the goldminer producers weren't having such a bad week after all. I guess the "Gold" man Sachs isn't holding too much NEM, which is befitting a banker who'd prefer to trade contracts.

The Philly goldminer index ($XAU) was down just "0.47 pct W/W to 122.36.


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldmines Index - Weekly Chart


Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldmines Index - Daily Chart


The XGD Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF TSE:XGD was also weak.

XGD was down "1.33 pct W/W to 58.80. I'm long; it could have been worse.

The Weekly data RSI is now down to just 65 and the Daily RSI is a piddly 55.

The worst this week was going into the close on Wed. For those who survived the onslaught, Friday was up +1.5 pct on the day. But you didn't hear that on CNBC. They were too busy interviewing John Snow, who was thinking his snowstorm had sent those snowbirds from Canada south on vacation.

Little does he know what it's like to stand with a Molson's in your hand at the corner of Portage & Main in Winnipeg in January with the temp at a nippy "45 degrees. You need to carry a battery pack for the block heater in your backpack " the one you need to plug into your beer holder.

These Canucks haven't met a "Snow" man yet who'd get them to throw away their precious metals.

I mean even Pierre Lassonde, president of America's Newmont, and Chairman of London's World Gold Council, is a ex-Montrealer. And you know this weekend it snowed there, I think, two feet. And the locals were down on St. Catherine with a Molson's in hand talking about how the gold price was looking neat, and how they bought the dip.

Here are the Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart

XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

XGD Hourly data:

XGD Hourly Data Chart


For an interactive look, here are links to the Hourly data charts of three groups of proven goldminer stocks. You can click on the tabs for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts.


List #1

List #2

List #3



Forex:

The trade-weighted USD index dropped from a prior week's 91.26 to 89.71.

Listen when America loses a 90 on the way from 91 to 89, there is a serious problem going down. If, as is likely, you never heard that at CNBC, or from the "Snow" man, then I'll have to break the news.

It's not pretty. Kinda like a CSI episode where the coroner reaches into the abdomen and pulls out... well, you know.

When all the money in America disappears to the tune of "1.70 pct in five days, I don't think the "Snow" man ought to have been singing "God Bless America" there on the TGIF Show on CNBC. But then again maybe that's why he was. And why he said he was headed off to Mexico.

Where they have a silver mine or two.

Last week in this space I wrote: "The USD had ... a fairly big drop of "0.72 pct W/W. Now I don't want to tell you how much "0.72 pct of the total value of money in the United States is " for fear you may have a heart attack " but let me say it's more money than Wall Street made in bonuses this year... lost in a week. Next week could be worse. And I'm afraid to tell you what the Cara Crystal Ball is saying for January 2006. The old joke "If I tell you, I'll have to kill you" doesn't even apply. If I tell you, you'll die of a heart attack anyway."

So don't say the "Cara" man didn't tell you what was going down. You should have known something big was about to happen when I started posting blogs at 3:40 am on Monday morning, for Pete's sake.


Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:


Weekly U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart

After being up +1.00 pct a week earlier, the Euro (priced in USD) was up +1.50 pct this week to 120.01. It's been a tough time for Europe this year. Now it's time for their party.


Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Weekly Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD



International Equities:

The Japanese market was strong. The UK had a modest improvement; and Canada was down barely.


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan had a superb week, up +2.71 pct W/W to 13.28 on the EWJ. But Friday was up +1.37 pct, and no country deserves to be up +1.37 pct in a single day.

So with RSI and %K STO being up to 85 and 97 respectively, that happens to be respectful of a Dollar fleeing America and seeking a landing spot abroad.

And I hear the "Gold" man told the authorities in Japan that if they would double the margins in the metals futures markets, he'd bring his winnings to their casino. LOL.

But the game play might be a short one.


Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ


EWJ Daily data:

Daily EWJ

EWJ Hourly data:

Hourly EWJ

U.K. equity market ETF: EWU


The U.K. ETF (EWU) was up +0.89 pct W/W to 19.34.

The EWU STO is now up to 95, which is nosebleed territory. The RSI is still at 68, so EWU might go up a week or so from here, but it is clearly over-bought.

There appears to be a double-top forming in 2H05. That's a negative btw.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

EWU Hourly data:


Hourly EWU Data

Canadian equity market ETF: EWC


The Canadian (EWC) equity-market ETF was down "0.18 pct W/W to 21.84. That's not surprising with the decline in oil and metals prices. But the story, other than the election campaign, is that on Friday the TSX rallied +0.41 pct due to the rolling into the TSX Composite index a half-weighting of 75 top quality trusts.

These are being favored for a few weeks, at least until the election is over and the new Prime Minister gets to tells us something more believable than we heard a couple weeks ago.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data

EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data


EWC Hourly data:


Hourly EWC Data

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).



U.S. Equities:

A week ago, the Dow 30 was down "0.9 pct, the S&P 500 down "0.5 pct, the Naz down "0.7 pct, and the Russell Small Cap Index down -0.3 pct. This week all the losses in the Dow and S&P 500 were made up by similar gains. So those two indexes are flat over a couple weeks. The Naz was down this week "0.19 pct, and the Russell small cap index was down "0.82 pct W/W.

Some market technicians " the pattern watchers " are calling for an upside breakout in the S&P 500 based on current prices being at the top end of a rising pennant (flag). Such a sanguine group of turncoats.

My side " the momentum-crazy technicians " see a continued slowing of RSI, %K STO and MACD. We also are looking at the RYDEX cash levels that show that the bulls are apparently tapped out.

So it looks like a year-end rally coming to the year-end, and no place to go... but down.



Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Monthly Nasdaq Composite Data

Monthly S&P 500 Data

Monthly Dow 30 Data

Monthly Russel 2000 Data

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Weekly Nasdaq Composite Data

Weekly S&P 500 Data

Weekly Dow 30 Data

Weekly Russel 2000 Data

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Daily Nasdaq Composite Data

Daily S&P 500 Data

Daily Dow 30 Data

Daily Russel 2000 Data

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Hourly Nasdaq Composite Data

Hourly S&P 500 Data

Hourly Dow 30 Data

Hourly Russel 2000 Data


The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change.


Symbol Close Net %Net 1W %Net 2W %Net 4W %Net YTD %Net 3M %Net 6M %Net Yr %Net
PFE 22.58 -0.21 -0.92% 9.51% 6.01% 5.76% -14.63% -12.82% -21.05% -22.08%
MO 77.32 0.70 0.91% 7.08% 5.46% 7.69% 27.53% 5.72% 16.06% 26.94%
HON 37.88 -0.08 -0.21% 6.08% 5.05% 3.98% 7.31% -3.59% -0.53% 6.37%
UTX 58.03 0.43 0.75% 4.71% 5.53% 7.96% 12.68% 12.94% 10.47% 13.78%
HD 42.50 -0.08 -0.19% 3.61% 1.99% -0.02% -1.39% 6.52% 5.72% -0.21%
MRK 30.01 0.24 0.81% 3.02% 0.13% 1.35% -4.00% 3.84% -6.22% -5.60%
CAT 59.64 0.93 1.58% 2.67% 1.41% 3.78% 25.48% 3.33% 21.34% 25.82%
WMT 49.27 0.01 0.02% 2.48% 2.71% 0.06% -7.65% 12.31% -0.16% -6.60%
JPM 39.79 0.21 0.53% 1.71% 2.05% 4.90% 1.63% 13.72% 10.84% 2.21%
BA 70.75 -0.04 -0.06% 1.58% 1.89% 4.58% 38.81% 9.18% 11.08% 35.85%
AXP 51.93 0.50 0.97% 1.52% 0.62% 4.91% -7.12% -12.66% -5.44% -7.17%
GE 36.06 0.06 0.17% 1.49% 1.58% 4.04% -1.45% 4.61% -0.06% -2.83%
PG 58.11 -0.88 -1.49% 1.36% 1.31% 1.68% 5.29% 3.86% 7.12% 3.58%
JNJ 60.86 0.70 1.16% 1.26% -0.57% -3.92% -3.24% -6.63% -8.21% -4.08%
INTC 26.38 -0.20 -0.75% 1.15% -3.83% 5.06% 14.35% 6.33% -2.73% 15.35%
C 49.37 0.27 0.55% 0.94% 1.23% 2.98% 2.28% 8.72% 3.85% 4.93%
SBC 24.91 -0.14 -0.56% 0.57% 4.27% 4.75% -2.66% 4.62% 5.24% -1.03%
AA 28.23 0.00 0.00% 0.28% 0.46% 6.73% -8.91% 5.81% 1.07% -9.11%
MCD 34.75 -0.23 -0.66% -0.26% -0.46% 4.70% 9.21% 1.49% 19.29% 6.40%
KO 41.21 0.05 0.12% -0.72% -3.76% -1.58% -0.79% -5.05% -5.87% 0.19%
XOM 58.06 -1.43 -2.40% -0.75% -1.71% 1.19% 15.91% -8.85% -3.43% 15.89%
DD 42.50 -0.41 -0.96% -0.84% -1.53% 0.57% -13.48% 4.91% -9.90% -11.38%
MMM 77.09 -0.40 -0.52% -0.99% -2.91% -0.22% -6.44% 5.10% 0.55% -3.52%
AIG 65.15 -0.15 -0.23% -1.32% -3.18% -2.86% -1.33% 6.28% 17.96% 1.05%
VZ 30.49 -0.12 -0.39% -1.90% -4.33% -3.82% -24.70% -7.07% -12.74% -24.53%
DIS 24.70 -0.04 -0.16% -1.95% -0.72% -4.96% -11.31% 2.45% -7.77% -10.34%
MSFT 26.90 -0.02 -0.07% -2.92% -3.96% -3.83% 0.60% 3.18% 7.43% -0.96%
HPQ 28.92 -0.28 -0.96% -3.34% -1.06% -0.28% 37.39% 2.05% 21.00% 37.39%
IBM 83.37 -0.16 -0.19% -4.14% -5.96% -4.05% -14.71% 3.78% 8.20% -14.45%
GM 21.89 -0.24 -1.08% -4.54% -0.86% -3.27% -45.68% -32.60% -38.55% -44.20%


This performance chart of the Dow 30 shows 18 stocks up and 12 down this week for the Dow 30.

Madison Avenue and Big Media spun the FOMC change in the word "accommodative" to the extent one word can be spun " the beneficiaries of course being their friends on the Street, and the White House

Lets take a look at what happened:

The six big winners out of 11 on the week:

PFE, up +9.51 pct: was second biggest loser a week ago (-3.2 pct); tired of spin?
MO, up +7.08 pct: friendly judge says deadly products are ok for America
HON, up +6.08 pct: Europe says HON that much closer to GE marriage
UTX, up +4.71 pct: week ago's Cara crystal ball: "elevators for China maybe?"
HD, up +3.61 pct: I wasn't watching; I still smart thinking of lousy service
MRK, up +3.02 pct: mistrial; 10,000 to go, at a pace of six a year. LOL

The five big losers out of 19 this week:

GM, down "4.54 pct: biggest winner last week (+3.9 pct) took the hit this week
IBM, down "4.14 pct: wasn't watching
HPQ, down "3.34 pct: wasn't watching
MSFT, down "2.92 pct: traders unhappy AOL suckered GOOG and not Gates
DIS, down "1.95 pct: 3rd big winner a week ago; can't remember why

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)


(AA) (AA) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on AA: next one is due Jan. 20)


(AIG) (AIG) (Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on AIG: next one is due Feb. 25)


(AXP) (AXP) (Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on AXP: next one is due Feb. 25)


(BA) (BA) (Here is the Sep. 23 Value Line report on BA: next one is due Dec. 23)


(C) (C) (Here is the Nov. 26 Value Line report on C: next one is due Feb. 25)


(CAT) (CAT) (Here is the Oct. 28 Value Line report on CAT: next one is due Jan. 27)


(DD) (DD) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on DD: next one is due Jan. 20)


(DIS) (DIS) (Here is the Nov. 18 Value Line report on DIS: next one is due Feb. 18)


(GE) (GE) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on GE: next one is due Jan. 13)


(GM) (GM) Here is the Sep. 2 Value Line report on GM: next one is due Dec. 2)


(HD) (HD) (Here is the Oct. 7 Value Line report on HD: next one is due Jan. 6)


(HON) (HON) (Here is the Oct. 28 Value Line report on HON: next one is due Jan. 27)


(HPQ) (HPQ) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on HPQ: next one is due Jan. 13)


(IBM) (IBM) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on IBM: next one is due Jan. 13)


(INTC) (INTC) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on INTC: next one is due Jan. 13)


(JNJ) (JNJ) Here is the Sep. 3 Value Line report on JNJ: next one is due Dec. 2)


(JPM) (JPM) Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on JPM: next one is due Feb. 25)


(KO) (KO) (Here is the Nov. 4 Value Line report on KO: next one is due Feb. 3)


(MCD) (MCD) (Here is the Dec. 9 Value Line report on MCD: next one is due Mar. 10)


(MMM) (MMM) (Here is the Nov 18 Value Line report on MMM: next one is due Feb 18)


(MO) (MO) (Here is the Nov.4 Value Line report on MO: next one is due Feb. 3)


(MRK) (MRK) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on MRK: next one is due Jan. 20)


(MSFT) (MSFT) (Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on MSFT: next one is due Feb. 25)


(PFE) (PFE) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on PFE: next one is due Jan. 20)


(PG) (PG) (Here is the Oct. 7 Value Line report on PG: next one is due Jan. 6)


(SBC) (SBC) (Here is the Sep. 30 Value Line report on SBC: next one is due Dec. 30)


(UTX) (UTX) (Here is the Oct. 28 Value Line report on UTX: next one is due Jan. 27)


(VZ) (VZ) (Here is the Sep. 30 Value Line report on VZ: next one is due Dec. 30)


(WMT) (WMT) (Here is the Nov. 11 Value Line report on WMT: next one is due Feb. 11)


(XOM) (XOM) (Here is the Dec. 16 Value Line report on XOM: next one is due Mar. 17)

The Value Line Report for this week is XOM. VL lowered the Timeliness rating on XOM from a "good" 2 to an average 3.


Wrap up

Almost at the end of the year (week #50), I am looking forward to taking a vacation from the market and blogging, which I plan to do between Christmas and New Years. Christmas, Easter and Cdn Thanksgiving (U.S. Columbus Day) are our three biggest family celebrations, with parts of the family arriving from far and wide.

Because my wife and I lost our three remaining parents in a three-week stretch in early summer (my Mother-In-Law passed on in the early 1980's), and my Sister-In-Law lost her remaining parent two months ago, this year's celebration will be different. We have a large family, but this will be the first where my generation is the oldest.

Life moves on. Ecclesiastes 3.

BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on December 17, 2005 05:40:25 PM | Category: Cara Week in Review